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Djdazzle

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Everything posted by Djdazzle

  1. Djdazzle
    There are some seriously grumpy people in here today!
  2. Djdazzle
    The really cold uppers haven’t even engaged the warmer North Sea yet. There is the potential for huge convection, yet we all know how bad the models are at picking it up. Those writing off snow chances need to bear this in mind.
  3. Djdazzle
    Met office extended updates flip and flop like a flag in the wind!
  4. Djdazzle
    The way some are talking, you’d think the snow will simply just end at the edge of the amber zone! It’s a very rough guide and will change. I’m sure most of Essex will get a good dumping.
  5. Djdazzle
    I agree to the extent that the models are showing this. But it’s your insistence that they are definitely correct which is causing the replies that you are getting. In this situation, within the broad pattern, a 100 mile shift can make the world of difference. Usually, a 100 mile difference with your average Atlantic depression makes no difference to the overall outcome, so nobody comments on it. On a global scale, 100 miles is like millimetres.
  6. Djdazzle
    Would just be typical now if the pub run gave us a Saturday night special. Anyway, the ECM mean, were it a single run, would probably be cold enough to deliver a snow event Thu / Fri.
  7. Djdazzle
    Isn’t that the argument that gets dragged out around Christmas every year? ECM mean not looking as good. Is the op at the top end?
  8. Djdazzle
    But your post implied that you knew the MOGREPS output. A bit misleading.
  9. Djdazzle
    Compared to its previous run. Looked like the cold air was being mixed out quicker compared even to the GFS. Wonder what the 168 chart will show?
  10. Djdazzle
    But there is support. It’s not just the ECM op - GFS, GEM and UKMO.
  11. Djdazzle
    There must be a pretty strong signal for the models to push the LP through so quickly, which seems to go against the intuition of a lot of the experts on here. Let’s hope it’s a case where the signal will be dropped in later runs.
  12. Djdazzle
    I agree, but people were rubbishing the GFS for what it was showing, saying they would much rather trust the ECM. Are they saying that now? It has to be said it is a big change from its earlier run.
  13. Djdazzle
    So those who were rubbishing GFS earlier today may have been a bit premature. If this trend continues we could be in SW’lys next weekend.
  14. Djdazzle
    ECM has a round LP. Not what we want to see.
  15. Djdazzle
    Probably. But if the LP is sitting over the Midlands on tomorrow’s runs then that will require a bigger correction southwards if we want it to be all snow. It may also be miles south by tomorrow’s runs. Was so hoping for a drama free week so as to focus on the here and now stuff. Oh well!
  16. Djdazzle
    I think we will have an idea of where this is heading within the next 24 hours. If we want an all snow event, we don’t want to see the LP any further north.
  17. Djdazzle
    I remember that well. I was 12 at the time and went to bed expecting to wake up to a load of snow. Wasn't happy! Anyway, back to the here and now. Just got back from taking the dog for a walk; that wind is freezing!
  18. Djdazzle
    Feel more confident that the GFS is on the wrong track having seen the ECM ensembles.
  19. Djdazzle
    I do think that the GFS 6z is the more unlikely solution. But we also need to remember that there have been examples in the past where strong blocks of cold air have been easily shunted aside. Didn't that happen in Feb 1991?
  20. Djdazzle
    True, but the ECM and UKMO has also trended further north, but to a lesser extent. Not saying GFS is right by any means though.
  21. Djdazzle
    Why? It’s perfectly plausible.
  22. Djdazzle
    So much for the LP to correct south! The trend is clearly the opposite.
  23. Djdazzle
    The apps are beyond useless. Ignore them! i see you’re one of those die hard people who still cling to calling Romford as being in Essex lol!
  24. Djdazzle
    That LP to the south seems to be gaining support.
  25. Djdazzle
    And this one from the late great Ian McKaskill
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