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Djdazzle

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Everything posted by Djdazzle

  1. Djdazzle
    As long as a strong Azores high goes back to its home by the summer, I don’t mind! Great models again today so far. I’m normally fairly cautious, but next week could be special. It’s already got that continental feeling down here with a noticeable east wind.
  2. Djdazzle
    With regard to the upcoming ECM, it will be telling whether the op follows the earlier cluster with the HP further south. Don’t let us down ECM!
  3. Djdazzle
    144+ is la la land anyway. Up to then GFS is excellent. Anyone expecting continued repeats of runs such as the 6z aren’t in the real world.
  4. Djdazzle
    Mathematically yes! But I’m adding in an extra bit of caution due to many past let downs. . .
  5. Djdazzle
    Agreed. This is far from a done deal in terms of deep cold. If we start to see more ensembles showing differing evolutions then we need to take note. I’d say 50% chance of deep cold next week. The other issue is that the transition to deep cold is creeping into the reliable frame now, and that’s when things often get watered down. I’m not saying it will, but it can’t be discounted.
  6. Djdazzle
    Amazing output. Maybe just this once we won’t be denied.
  7. Djdazzle
    All the severe cold is still a week or more away. Haven’t we been here before folks . . . it would be a vey significant event for so late in winter. But it’s still in FI.
  8. Djdazzle
    Which totally seems to go against what John Hammond has tweeted!
  9. Djdazzle
    -2 uppers with a continental feed could be good enough for snow. But it’s pointless discussing it on a chart at 9-10 days away.
  10. Djdazzle
    Good trend from ECM. Hoping to see GFS 18z follow.
  11. Djdazzle
    Oh look, ECM shows very cold uppers heading for Greece! Typical!
  12. Djdazzle
    If an Easterly is showing at less than T+96 I’ll be interested! But you can’t call this anywhere’s near to 50:50. There are far more ways to end up without the Easterly than with!
  13. Djdazzle
    Well for a start none of the UKMO output is anywhere near the reliable time frame. Remember that we have had cross model agreement on easterly outbreaks at +72 only for it to go wrong. And with GFS saying no, that adds to the uncertainty. Like it or not, the Easterly is still very much a long shot at this stage. If there is a good ECM tonight, then the odds improve slightly.
  14. Djdazzle
    I don’t get all the enthusiasm for an Easterly when there is so little evidence to support it? The UKMO 144 chart would surely go on to show the block sinking SE, with lots of pressure from the northern arm of the jet. No support from GFS either. Of course, things can trend better, but I still believe that the chance of an Easterly is no more than 10%. I’m more than happy for someone to convince me otherwise.
  15. Djdazzle
    Some nice charts from UKMO / ECM, but chances of an Easterly no more than 10% at the moment. That could change of course.
  16. Djdazzle
    If only that were true! It’s happened so many times before, yet people fall for it time and time again - even experienced posters who should know better!
  17. Djdazzle
    Duff duff . . . The only duff thing here is these bloody models!
  18. Djdazzle
    The deafening silence says it all! I know it’s one run, but this is a step away from the Euros.
  19. Djdazzle
    Someone says 100% swing. Someone else says slight improvement. No wonder folk find this place confusing!
  20. Djdazzle
    But surely it’s the longevity that contributes to the classic status? I still say Feb 91 was the last real classic, not that I would say no to a Feb 2009 repeat!
  21. Djdazzle
    Why do you say that? It hasn’t happened yet. Nor is it likely to at T240!
  22. Djdazzle
    It’s not anything like a classic Easterly, but still looks very good. It’s been 27 years since the last one, that’s how rare the real classics are. But who knows how it might evolve?
  23. Djdazzle
    Yes that high has a worrying sag on its south eastern edge.
  24. Djdazzle
    The problem again is that the really cold stuff was never anywhere near the reliable timeframe. And all this talk about the GFS stepping towards the Euros, implying that the Euros somehow have the correct solution. Amazing charts beyond the reliable will always get watered down as the time approaches. Sadly a blended solution is no use for prolonged cold.
  25. Djdazzle
    MOGREPS may be suppprting the ECM, given the positive Met Office update.
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