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Quite a difference between them.... 1:00 8th January. 12z 18z : I know which one I prefer....

Colder air continues to home in on the UK until the 6th January.... (GFS 18Z up to +150h)

Is that a Murr sausage to the north, or are you just pleased to see me....?

On the subject of ‘Staying cold into the New Year’, here’s the GFS precipitation charts from the 3rd January (+120h) to the 8th January (+240h).... This is, of course, guesswork by the GFS at this stage but it is showing snow or wintry showers somewhere in the UK on every single frame of this 5 day sequence. This is a prospect we all want to see in January. It’s not inconceivable that almost everyone will have some snow over this period which is not a prospect to be disappointed at, especially given the number of snowless years we’ve had recently.

Some great charts appearing for this winter, and it’s about time! Now, I know this sort of thing is frowned upon by the purists, but you have to admit the similarities between these charts are uncanny..... Of course, there was a much more prominent pool of deeper cold air to draw on in 1963, but it’s the general placement of ridges and troughs and the direction of flow which I am looking at. I’m not predicting another winter like 1963 but it’s obvious we have the right set up to have a shot at whatever level of cold the 2020s are capable of developing, after all those years of climate change.

Got to be honest - chances of me seeing lying snow in Pembrokeshire tomorrow is pretty low. Maybe a couple of cms on the top of the Preselis but under about 200m asl will probably be rain. Won’t stop me looking for it though....

You’ve gone and done it now, Andy.... that shows a covering in Pembrokeshire at 8am tomorrow, and if I haven’t got snow tomorrow Im going to be disappointed! Cant even drive to where there is snow - under the lockdown rules. Normally I would take a drive up to Llyn Brianne after snowfall but don’t think it’ll be possible this year

The weather models are not certain on the amount of snow but all agree that Wales will get some! Here’s a couple of the best ‘snow depth’ charts for Monday mid- morning..... Nothings guaranteed - even at this late stage - and it could be better or worse than shown. Will have to wait until this time tomorrow to see whether they’re right. ️️️???????

After storm Bella last night, which didn’t seem to deliver the killer punch some of the models were predicting, here are the 6 day charts for the main models (+144hr) this morning.... 500s. 850s UKMO ECM GFS GEM. There is already some disagreement in the placement of different features but they all agree on keeping some sort of Atlantic ridge in place between the Azores and Iceland thereby trapping some colder upper air over the UK for the next six days at least. Not necessary a snow machine set-up but poised to bring some snow in places on high ground perhaps, or later on to allow those North American lows waiting in the wings to break through and sweep it all away..... Whatever it eventually delivers, this is a more promising wintery-looking start to January than we have seen for a few years.

Probably going to peak around midnight, Andy. Hope you tied down yer bins!

Getting pretty wild here in Pembrokeshire with loud roaring around the corners of the house. The peak here is due either side of midnight and we will probably see gusts in excess of 70mph even here where we are afforded a little protection from the south west. On the coast I expect there will be gusts over 80mph recorded in the usual most exposed places - eg Pembrey. Stay safe tonight everyone.

Well it’s getting pretty wild out there now. Sort of roaring noises going on around the corners of the house as the wind really picks up. I don’t like the look of the large band of rain which is coming with it - we already have enough water in the rivers around here. At least the possibility of some white stuff on Monday is something to look forward to, even at Strumble Head (although you are very close to the sea, Penfoel!). Certain to be some snow on the Preselis soon which is always a good thing to see.

Hope everyone had a lovely restful day yesterday . Do take care tonight - some models are suggesting that wind gusts up to 90mph could occur in exposed places either side of midnight - even inland. 70mph gusts widely expected and heavy rain could cause considerable disruption. ECM winds gusts for tonight....

While we are all hoping for some white stuff after the weekend, we will have to get through this storm first.... Wind gusts around 10:00pm Saturday night according to the ICON and the ECM: Bright pink is not good - lots of 70mph (110kph) gusts but 143kph = 90mph so could be damaging in places. If you’ve got anything loose outside in the garden on Saturday morning you’ll need to tie it down - including the dog. Just as well Santa will have been and gone before this one gets here or Rudolph would have trouble landing on my roof....that’s if I’ve still got one.... Nadolig Glawen to all you lovely weather fans. ️️

Potentially historic chart, that. If we get close to that in early January the weather will be making headlines. One thing we can’t complain about this winter is a lack of eye-candy.....

The period from 7:00pm Sunday night to 1:00pm Wednesday - surface temperatures and snow depth as seen by the GFS 6z this morning: Not a dumping but ground temperatures could see the snow lying for a time - if it happens like this of course!

What’s this rolling out on the GFS? Snow depth charts for Monday morning, 28th December..... 7:00am 1:00pm M4 corridor looking interesting...... it’s just four days away so getting into the reliable (I hope).

Breaking news! These snow depth charts for Monday morning 28th December just out on GFS: 1:00am 7:00am That’s just four days away - looks good for South Wales!

Don’t know why that would be. Here’s the 30th December. (+144h) as shown by all the models this morning: UKMO. ECM GFS. GEM JMA. NAVGEM ICON All agreed - high pressure ridge in the Atlantic to the west, low pressure firmly over the UK. Could they all be wrong at this stage? I doubt it. Of course, after this date it’s anyone’s guess......

My goodness, this has been and continues to be an EPIC chase! Can’t remember seeing charts like the ones on offer now, not before Christmas anyway, since 2010, at least. These charts have just got to verify or preferably amplify, because if it all goes tights up this place will go into complete meltdown. I have to say it would be just our luck to get an absolute pasting this winter, creating a triple whammy with B****t, and C***d. It seems that as early as the 27th December we might get our first taste of potentially even more interesting events to come.....

That is an amazing chart.....almost too good to be true, in fact. I can’t remember anything like that actually happening in recent years. If the CFS was showing such a set-up it would be the butt of many jokes. Must keep in mind that it’s 12 days off and almost certain not to happen but the fact that it’s a possible solution to the current conditions is cause for celebration itself.

And now, a pre-Christmas prayer to our own special god... Our Father, who art in ‘ternet, Netweather be thy name; thy models run; thy charts be done; on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily thread. And forgive us our ramps, as we forgive those who ramp against us. Lead us not into zonality, But deliver us from mild. For thine is the UKMO, the GFS and the ECM, for ever and ever. Amen. And now, altogether, the Netweather mantra.... “LET’S GET THE COLD IN FIRST” ️️️ Merry Christmas, everyone! Let’s hope we all get a dumping before the New Year. And don’t share those mince pies with anyone outside your bubble....

A look at the UK surface temperatures over the next 10 days as (currently) predicted by the GFS: There’s an increasing a amount of frost being shown both by day and by night, and this can only be amplified in the days following if the current NH charts verify......

Sunday 27th and Monday 28th December looking very interesting for possible snow event in Wales...

^^^ Ha Ha - that ECM.....snap! ^^^ A comparison of the main models at +144h (28th December) this morning shows agreement on the placement of the Atlantic ridge and the trough over the UK: UKMO ECM GFS GEM. The UKMO has wound up the low GFS-style but they are all keen to have that ridge rise into Greenland. Charts at +144 are still not entirely reliable especially given the differences between the models following these frames but, given the overall agreement between them, presumably we can at least expect the charts to continue showing this set-up in the days after Christmas. It’s not showing mild weather, that’s for sure.