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The GFS overnight has continued its prediction of cold for the first week of January....and then redoubled it! Just look at this evolution from the 30th December to the 7th January.... The Atlantic ridge extends up to Greenland and traps the cold air over the UK, then draws down even colder air from the Arctic. Fab-U-lous! Now all we need is to see these charts move into the +72h range and we can start talking about the Winter of 2020/21 in historical terms.....

Here is the current GFS evolution from the 29th December to the 6th January..... 500s. 850s That Atlantic ridge allows the colder uppers to remain in place over the UK for a full week, but it just seems unlikely to me that it will be able to maintain that position for seven days on the trot. It will be interesting to see whether reality is anything like this......not long to wait!

Torrential rain here again, yesterday and overnight. There will be local flooding in places this morning for sure, with more rain and showers predicted for today. River levels are already high and the ground saturated. We could certainly do with a nice cold, dry spell with or without snow, over Christmas to let the river levels go down. The forecast for Christmas Day looks fairly dry at the moment but there is more unsettled weather to come before the New Year.

Now I know it’s WINTER!!

Over an inch of rain is forecast for my location in just four hours between 12 noon and 4 pm this afternoon. But there could be worse in store for South Wales and the Beacons. Just hope everyone avoids flooding over the Christmas period - that would really be adding injury to insult and more injury...

Looking good! That should bring Andy Music back for another season...

Here is this mornings very promising GFS (0z) evolution from Boxing Day to New Years Eve.... 500s. 850 VERY seasonal! Quite a few wouldn’t need a lockdown to make them stay at home if this happened. Pity it’s in the land of make believe...

Snow actually appearing in the ‘precipitation type’ chart for Christmas Day! That’s got to be a result in itself! Can’t remember seeing this for years and years..... OK - I know it’s not a nationwide Christmas blizzard which some would love to see, but at least there’s a chance for some of us. How often can we say that at this time of year...?

White Christmas? GFS and ECM models both show a slight accumulation of snow but not on Christmas Day so much as Boxing Day, and only for the highest ground in Wales, mostly in the north..... 26th December. 6:00pm. Snow depth charts: GFS ECM. This is still a long way off in forecasting terms and we will definitely see changes over the coming week but at least some of us are in with a chance at this stage!

Not too sure how much more of this I can take...... Arrrgh! Winters over! Weyhey! There’s gonna be a snow fest! Oh no! Winters over again, I’m out! Hooray - I’m back! It’s gonna be a white Xmas after all! But more caution is needed! But there’s still a lot to play for! Bless my poor heart. If I get through the next ten days it’ll be a result. “Well don’t look at this thread, then” some of you might say. Come off it. That would be like not watching the sky to see if I can spot Santa and his reindeer. Not a realistic suggestion, is it? Anyway, the models are still flipping around at this stage and this is the level of divergence they are showing as early as +144hr 500s at +144 hr (22 December): UKMO ECM GFS GEM.

Four more Days of heavy rain for parts of Wales according to the Met Office. Weather warnings issued now...... Met Office weather warning: Flooding risk as heavy rainfall forecast - Wales Online WWW.WALESONLINE.CO.UK There are four days of weather warnings for rain covering parts of Wales

Fairly widespread prolonged rain is expected over the next 48 hours affecting most of Wales but the south in particular. Possible accumulation by Monday evening shown by this chart from the UKMO..... We’ve all seen worse but it’s worth knowing what’s coming especially if you have problems with prolonged heavy rain - like I do.

The GFS is now showing a series of wet and possibly quite windy low pressure systems lining up to target the UK before and after Christmas. This is by no means set in stone yet but as the days go by it looks increasingly likely that a lot of rain will feature in the forecast for Wales in late December. Those of us who are most adversely affected by heavy rain may want to take note of this.

Had to look twice at the GFS in FI this morning because it’s showing EXACTLY what I want for Christmas! Got my gifs ready all excited to post on here and then realised that everyone’s already been there and done it! Must get up earlier..... Anyway, since it looks so lovely and not likely to be repeated, here is the evolution shown by the GFS between +240 and +384 (23rd December): 850s 500s That would be a very nice Christmas present indeed! ️️ Well, at least it’s possible.....

This report by the BBC implies that the warming trend will continue.....unless emissions are reduced worldwide that is. Climate change: Snowy UK winters could become thing of the past Climate change: Snowy UK winters could become thing of the past WWW.BBC.CO.UK By the 2040s most of southern England may no longer get sub-zero days, new Met...

These charts from the main models at +144hrs do demonstrate a reasonable degree of agreement with low pressure around the Med in Southern Europe and the Atlantic being kept at bay for the time being. 500s. 850s UKMO ECM GFS GEM This is not really a poor set up for mid-December especially compared with some recent years but we know that things can radically alter for the better or for the worse, so we’ll have to keep watching.... ️

Steady, continuous rain here which is likely to dig in for the rest of the day. I can’t see any snow falling here or even on the Preselis given the westerly origin of the weather but you never know. Good luck to all those who are hoping for a covering today or tomorrow!

Yes - I’ve just watched that excellent documentary which was made in 1963 at the end of that historic winter. I haven’t seen it before. I was 10 years old at the time but can’t really remember much except the huge drifts in the roads and the television coverage showing pictures of airdrops of food to farms all over the south west. I also remember that the we went back to school as normal which was about a mile and half walk from home. I don’t remember pipes freezing or water being distributed from tankers but maybe it didn’t register with me at that age. The documentary footage is very evocative of the time and the language used sometimes archaic by today’s standards so it’s a very interesting capture of the way we lived and thought back then. The story covered trains being stuck in 20 foot snow drifts, the freezing of rivers, canals and even the coastal waters in estuaries, electricity and gas shortages and difficulties with coal distribution. I doubt that we’ll ever see a winter like that again given all the difference climate change is making to our weather.

Sorry - wrong thread!

Hi WV - sorry I only just saw your post but I see SussexSnow has replied anyway. I find I have to click on the finished GIF in Meteociel and save it to photos so the file can be uploaded to NW but there may be easier ways to do it...

I like the look of this very encouraging progression from the GFS 6z between the 11th and 18th December.... That cold in the east is on the move - and in our direction! Needless to say, we will have to wait and see to compare these fantasy charts with the reality in 10 days from now.....

It seems a little surreal to be checking snow depth charts on the 2nd December! How often does that happen? Anyway, best make full use of the occasion while we can because it might not happen again for quite a while . So here are the ‘accumulated snowfall’ charts up to midnight Saturday from ICON, GEM and ECMWF high res. HEALTH AND SAFETY WARNING: Just for fun, of course...... Best you head for the Scottish mountains if you really need to see some proper snowfall this weekend....

I agree, Nick. How about these for Thursday and Friday.... Encouraging to see snow in the charts in early December even if it doesn’t happen quite yet. At least there’s some good cause to be optimistic for later in the month.

Couldn’t resist sharing this sunrise with you this morning..... Kinda makes up for any rubbish we have to endure from time to time....

1st of December and (at great personal risk of being pilloried.....) these CFS charts are now only 24 days away....... Now that would make an interesting Christmas Day! I know, I KNOW! It’s too far ahead. It’s never going to happen. Etc etc. Just let me dream, OK?