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Look at this radar image - suggests its snowing nearly everywhere in Wales now...... All the areas in Wales to the east of the current line of pink in this chart should at least see snow flakes today.

Just been out to check ... 3cm so far on a plank of wood. Not as much as it looks in the picture and we did a lot better last week but I’m not complaining. Radar says it changes to rain at 11:30am and it’s definitely lighter now.

According to these two models - Arome and Harmonie - which both show expected accumulation of snow today, some snow is definitely expected to reach parts of Shropshire. Not sure how accurate this is though because they didn’t forecast what I’ve got this morning. First this morning all I was expected to see was ‘heavy sleet’ and this is what has actually occurred: It just goes to show how difficult it is to forecast these snow events with any accuracy.

It’s really coming down now - not sure what more you could ask for unless it’s another six hours of the same.... I think this can be described as heavy now, but the radar suggests it’ll turn to rain before long. I hope that with a little bit of elevation it might last longer here. We’ve now had two snow events in seven days which is quite an improvement on recent years especially as there’s a strong possibility that February will bring some more.....

Hi Lloyd. It’s probably due to slightly higher elevation here - when this stops and you can see the Preselis again they’ ll have a nicely iced topping! Bet they’ll be more than a few peeps up there later..... I’ve see that road across the top almost blocked by cars parked anywhere and everywhere when people want to get their sledges out....

Might get a couple of centimetres at this rate - hope it keeps going and doesn’t turn to rain though!

Turned slightly heavier in the last 10 minutes with larger flakes. Does this mean it’s about to stop.

It’s still coming down but I would say only light to moderate and not likely to accumulate much if this only continues for a couple of hours. It’s great to see falling snow during the day, though, and I’m still hoping we might get something more substantial in February! The forecast is for this to turn to rain mid-morning so I’ll have to be satisfied with what I’ve got.....

Snow has reached me here - about 10 minutes ago - it’s fairly light but settling immediately on all surfaces as it was below feeling last night. Doesn’t look like there’s much heavy stuff on the way but hopefully it won’t turn to rain for a couple of hours because it’s nice to watch it falling!

What a great day it’s been on here.....20 pages of top posts and quite frankly some jaw-dropping charts for coldies. And it’s not over yet ! Whether or not the current very promising charts verify, I reckon this has been the best day so far this year and I’ll remember the excitement of watching today’s developments on this forum for a long time. We may be locked down and unable to get out to enjoy ourselves but at least we can have some fun on here while there’s the chance of some historic winter weather around the corner!

The perfect image of a very scary looking ‘beast’ from the east about to swallow the UK whole..... Not sure if it will turn out like this exactly but what an image that is. If only it wasn’t the CFS.....

The charts at 168h are just outside the usually reliable frames but are worth studying as they are full of potential for the days to follow... 500s 850s ECM GFS GEM If the models continue to show this pattern by the 4th February then a cold week is very likely to follow.

Even the CFS 9M currently develops a healthy easterly between the 4th and the 11th February.... ...so it must be nailed on, then.

GFS 0Z this morning develops an easterly with genuinely cold origins for four days from the 5th February.... However, the genuinely cold air does not quite reach the UK... ...and there is very little snow showing up on the precipitation chart.... Far too early to be taken seriously but these charts could improve as we move into February. The easterly could, of course, also disappear....

According to the GFS this morning, the Jetstream continues to take a more southerly route over the next 10 to 14 days than has been the case in UK mid-winters of recent years. As long as this is the case there is an increased chance of colder conditions reoccurring.... 27/01 - 04/02. 04/02 - 12/02

We’ve had light hail, followed by light rain. All the snow is falling off the trees! Will have to get colder again for anything else to fall as snow. Still, there’s always next week and then all of February to go yet.....

Finally, a decent covering of snow here in balmy Sir Benfro. About 4-5cm is all but it’s the best fall we’ve had for at least 5 years. Makes everything look so beautiful though, I can’t help wishing we had more like this.....

Yep. Assuming it was raining all night while I was asleep, we just passed 30 hours continuous non-stop rain here, with potential for at least another 4 hours to go. It’s not particularly heavy but it’s mounting up. There’s going to be some very swollen rivers by tonight. Glad to see your weather stations working well!

Best of luck to you and your neighbours over the next 24 hours. I hope you manage to avoid this happening as it must be awful to see waste water flooding into your house. We have only ever had water up to our doorstep when during heavy rain the fields around us drain into the lane, turning it into a temporary stream. The worst for us before now was in January 2015 but since then I have tried to raise the ground level and improve the drainage so now the water continues down the road a few feet from the house. However, got up at 5:30am this morning to see that the road has been flooded from one side to the other and my attempts at flood management have been overwhelmed. This is at least as bad as 2015. Luckily there appears to be no risk of water coming into the house though, so I think we’ll be OK. The water continues down the hill into the valley below and it’s the folk downstream that I am thinking about now. There are amber warnings for flooding in and around Whitland, St Clears and Carmarthen for later today.

Total rainfall for Wales up to 6:00pm Tuesday as predicted by the Arome high definition model, which doesn’t go out any further..... The rain is forecast to continue through Wednesday as well, so these totals will continue to rise. This is borne out by the Swiss 4x4 (based on the ECMWF model) which shows these totals up to 12 noon Wednesday.... Clearly, the MetOffice warnings should be taken seriously, especially in low lying areas close to rivers which drain the highest ground. However, it is also true that some other models show lower levels of total rainfall, so we will need to keep watching to see where the worst affected areas will be.

Lovely day here, at the moment. Suns out, winds dropped, some daffs popping their heads up for a quick look - an early taste of Spring. Bring it on, I say. If we get some late snow, that’ll be bonus, but I’m starting to look forward to warmer weather in a few weeks time. I need something to cheer me up, that’s for sure.

GFS asks us to believe there will be 6 hours of snow on the 21st January..... What were you saying about the M4 corridor......?

Just wanted to put these two images up from the GFS for the 21st January - 6 hours of snow for Wales: 38cm of lying snow in some parts..... Still a long way off but even if this prediction is 50% right it would be an interesting event to say the least!

Looks beautiful! Send some down here please....

Seems a bit of a streamer has set up in the Irish sea and is targeting a line between Cardigan and Carmarthen. Its falling as sleet and light hail here with a few snow flakes included, but if it continues this afternoon perhaps falling temperatures will allow some more snow. Would be nice to get some in Pembrokeshire as we’ve been left out up till now!