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Well there’s not much to get excited about to be honest, but here’s the +144h charts (10th September) from our four favourite models: UKMO ECM GFS GEM Notice how similar they are? So at least there is plenty of agreement that mid September will be fairly benign (for the south at least) with no significant extremes of any kind. Yawn. But I will be the first one complaining when the next big Atlantic storm heads our way. There’ll be one along soon.......

And this morning, Mike, the GFS goes from this at +240h: to this at +306h: Far too early to place any bets on this pattern but if it continues to show over the next few days the early September settled spell could prove to be short-lived.

ECM does appear to show a change from low pressure influence to dominant high pressure over six days from Wednesday...... This would allow a period of settled weather so let’s cross our fingers that it happens!

A quick look at what the models are predicting for +144h and I’m not really enthused..... UKMO. ECM GFS GEM That almost ever-present ‘Icelandic low pressure’ (is that a thing?) continues to show its hand which means little chance of high pressure gaining strength over the UK. I have watched this pattern recur regularly over a couple of weeks now and I don’t have a lot of confidence that a nice, settled September is about to unfold.....

It’s stayed very windy in the west but at least it’s dry now. Can’t quite believe we’re getting this kind of weather in August but I guess it must have happened before... Now we’ve got another lovely Atlantic storm to look forward to mid week.. I feel very sorry for all the holiday makers who did the right thing and stayed in the UK - a lot of them have come to Pembrokeshire to be greeted by gales, rain and cloudy skies. When you consider what a wonderful Spring we had during the period when most of us couldn’t leave the house, it’s a great shame that the good weather couldn’t continue through the peak holiday period. I’m pretty sure we’ll get lovely weather back again after everyone’s gone back to work and school....

Was woken up at about 12:30 by the worst rainstorm I have ever experienced anywhere. Absolutely torrential, tropical monsoon type rain accompanied by strong wind, thunder and lightning. It was hitting my south facing windows with the force of a pressure hose and I was worried for my roof. I then heard the dripping water above the bedroom so I rushed up to the loft to find two leaks . Managed to put bowls under the leaks but the noise up there was deafening - I’m just glad the roof is still on. It’s all passed away to the north towards Cardigan and the coast so I’m now recovering with a cup of tea. As I live on a hill I don’t have to worry about flooding too much but anyone living in a valley by a stream in the path of that storm must have had a worrying time. Please don’t let this become the new normal.....

Wind speed expected to peak in this area in the early hours tomorrow morning with gusts up to 60mph but I suspect we will get higher than that. Strong winds predicted for the whole of Friday and Saturday. Hope this isn’t a foretaste of October and November.....

It’s very wet and windy here already but worse is forecast for tomorrow night. And it’s still August. Sigh.

Some people are asking if there’s a hurricane coming. Dont worry. There isn’t.....

I agree ......and there’s no need to apologise - it’s not your fault!

I am not looking forward to the high winds forecast for the next two or three days. We’ve had a lot of rain here and the ground is soaked, and with all the trees in full leaf I can see some damage being caused. This summer has possibly been the most vivid example yet of the change to more extreme and even violent weather which climate change is predicted to bring about. I wonder wether next year will bring even more record breaking temperatures, out of season gales and monsoon rains to the UK....

Yes. - I just spent half an hour gazing at it in wonder. Looks like it’s over Carmarthen or even further east, so maybe 25 miles away. Is this too far for the sound to travel? The cloud top must be at least 10,000 feet and easily visible for us.

The day ended fine and sunny yesterday after the rain and thunderstorms had all passed away to the north. It’s a lovely start this morning too, with blue skies lit up by the rising sun and mist in the valleys gradually lifting. Quite warm but not expected to be uncomfortably hot today, thankfully. Gorgeous!

The distant rumbling and banging has returned but looking at the radar it seems this second stormy pulse is going to pass well to the east of this location. Carmarthen and Newcastle Emlyn could be in for an interesting hour or so with heavy rain showing on the radar. It’s also still raining here though and very humid but 100% overcast with low visibility so I’m unlikely to see the lightning unless it gets very close!

We had a ten minute spell of intense rainfall here accompanied by thunder but the lightning wasn’t such a feature as it was mostly concealed by cloud cover. The noisy bit has moved away towards Newport and Dinas Cross now but it’s still raining. There’s more lighting on the radar around Laugharne and Pendine but seems to be headed this way so maybe some more to come....?

We began to hear distant rumbles from much earlier this morning which all seemed to be further west - maybe around Pembroke - but in the last hour the storm has reached this location with torrential rain for about 10 minutes accompanied by some lightning but it would have been more spectacular at night. Most of the lightning was slightly north west of us - over the Preseli Hills - with only the thunder to really measure how much activity there was, but some of it must have been huge going by the noise and vibration. Now eased up again here but there seems to be more on the way from the south east looking at the rain radar. It’s odd that we didn’t get much of a heatwave here, but now we’re getting the thundery breakdown.....

Very distant rolls of thunder have now turned into a pretty constant rumble which looks to be coming from the far south west - around Pembroke possibly. It also looks like Swansea is getting a decent thunderstorm too. It’s all moving north by northwest so I expect we will see something interesting here later in the day....

After a very cloudy but humid start to the day the sun has finally emerged and it is having an immediate effect on the feel of the weather. It’s still humid, with very little breeze, and with the sun out it now begins to feel like a heatwave - well, a Welsh heatwave anyway . I expect the night to be warm and a little uncomfortable but nothing like as bad as Londoners will suffer. Tomorrow will probably be the warmest day of the weekend in this part of the world but I don’t think any records will fall.

Could be quite a surprising difference in maximum temperatures in the UK over the next few days. Might be as much as 15C cooler in my location compared to the south east.... 35c v 20c? Not that I’m complaining....

Cloudy and cool here today, much like the previous few days but without the drizzle . Yes, it’s dry here in Pembrokeshire and there is some hope of a few slightly warmer and sunnier days to come. Maybe I’ll get a chance to see that comet, after all. But don’t hold your breath....

In this sequence from the GFS the pesky jet stream seems to give the UK a break around the 11th July: .....but then it’s back again with a vengeance for the following week.... Not favourable for settled weather, I’d guess. There needs to be something of a change in this pattern in the next couple of weeks to bring us a really warm, dry and settled two or three week spell of proper mid-summer weather before we begin talking about Autumn...

Getting worse now, as if that was possible. Really low cloud base makes it look like we’re fogged in, but really it’s very low cloud with heavy drizzle driven sideways in the strong wind - exceptionally strong for July. Bound to have some damage in the garden by the end of the day tomorrow because everything is heavily in leaf and not able to stand up in these winds. It’s quite disheartening.

Desperately trying to find some positive signs in the reliable range but nothing much on offer I'm afraid..... These charts from +144 (9th July) don't really bring summer back : 500s 850s ECM UKMO GFS GEM There is some hope in the fact that these charts do not share much agreement, except perhaps for the rough position of the Azores high (not difficult to forecast, really) so perhaps they could all be wrong.... Here is the ECM 500hPa anomaly GIF for the next days. Doesn't look too favourable for a settled July at least in the next 10 days....

Don't like to moan - we did have a lovely Spring after all - but really, it's not like summer at all. More like October here this morning with 100% overcast, strong to gale force winds, and heavy rain on the way. This must be one of the windiest summers ever for this area, too - I cant remember sustained strong winds like we've had for days on end in June and July but then it's probably all happened before..... I can only hope the GFS is right and July will improve in the next two weeks. Moan over. On the plus side, things could be even worse.....

More like October here than July - 100% overcast, strong to gale force winds, rain on the way. Not even particularly warm. Where has the summer gone?