Sky Full

Sorry - wrong thread!

Hi WV - sorry I only just saw your post but I see SussexSnow has replied anyway. I find I have to click on the finished GIF in Meteociel and save it to photos so the file can be uploaded to NW but there may be easier ways to do it...

I like the look of this very encouraging progression from the GFS 6z between the 11th and 18th December.... That cold in the east is on the move - and in our direction! Needless to say, we will have to wait and see to compare these fantasy charts with the reality in 10 days from now.....

It seems a little surreal to be checking snow depth charts on the 2nd December! How often does that happen? Anyway, best make full use of the occasion while we can because it might not happen again for quite a while . So here are the ‘accumulated snowfall’ charts up to midnight Saturday from ICON, GEM and ECMWF high res. HEALTH AND SAFETY WARNING: Just for fun, of course...... Best you head for the Scottish mountains if you really need to see some proper snowfall this weekend....

I agree, Nick. How about these for Thursday and Friday.... Encouraging to see snow in the charts in early December even if it doesn’t happen quite yet. At least there’s some good cause to be optimistic for later in the month.

Couldn’t resist sharing this sunrise with you this morning..... Kinda makes up for any rubbish we have to endure from time to time....

1st of December and (at great personal risk of being pilloried.....) these CFS charts are now only 24 days away....... Now that would make an interesting Christmas Day! I know, I KNOW! It’s too far ahead. It’s never going to happen. Etc etc. Just let me dream, OK?

Sticking to the almost reliable (+144h) there’s general agreement for low pressure to be in control but the effects depend on the final position - whether we get cold and wet or mild and wet....... 500s. 850s UKMO ECM GFS GEM. If that system can be shifted 500 miles east we could feel the chill from a northerly but what follows could come from the east.....

The occupants of Gwrych Castle better hope that ECM +216h chart doesn’t happen......or they’ll all be crying ‘Get me out of here...!’ You can just about make out the UK under that dartboard - something much more akin to the GFS than the ECM......

Oh dear. Back to continuous cold drizzle with accompanying wind. Looks like the form horse this year for autumn and early winter. Hoping for that elusive easterly to get established because that will likely bring some respite from the rain, if not some wintry weather.....

Pretty windy overnight with a cold and breezy start this morning but we should have a drier day compared with the last three..... As we go towards the weekend I’m hoping the sun might appear from time to time but some more rain can also be expected. Sunday could be the best day of the week and perhaps I might be able to get those Spring bulbs in the ground at last.

Yep. Quite a bit of variation there - it’s all about the positioning of the high which looks likely to develop to our south west. I would like to see a cool high dominate out weather at the end of November - which could bring some increasingly rare early winter frosts and fog to some parts - but I thing the ECM is more likely closest to reality here.

FI GFS is predicting a week of high pressure over the UK from the 18th to the 26th November: Initially mild but cooling down towards the end of the period: but rainfall almost absent according to this sequence.... A period of settled weather looks likely but I very much doubt it will be as dry as depicted. December is now the most likely month for any real wintery weather to appear but nothing’s written in stone yet!

I’m a little late to the party this morning but there is every reason to celebrate the GFS showing a lovely easterly bringing cold air from across Northern Europe from the 11th to the 19th November. I can only add the animations to show how this is developed by the GFS..... We would be extremely lucky (and excited!) if these patterns continue to be seen into the +72hour range but for me it seems to be a pattern which is becoming repetitive in the charts and perhaps more and more likely to occur at some point during late November or December. The later the better, really....

Three straight days of almost continuous gales is now getting very tiring. It’s going to quieten down later, I know, but seeing everything that moves outside leaning over at an alarming angle isn’t very enjoyable. Have had to stake and tie everything that’s still standing in the garden but at least it’s not raining . A nice few quiet and sunny days to come. That’s better. Lock down ends in a week, too. Or does it?

Blimey. What a wild night it is here. Stormy winds and heavy rain. I know we had weather warnings for this area, but for some reason I wasn’t expecting it to be this bad. Nasty noises from outside imply that my roof is being tested. Saw a flash of lightning earlier too. Looking forward to a few days of calm next week - I’ve got to try and finish painting outside but I do need some dry weather for this.

Lovely start here today.... This might be the last dry, calm and sunny day we get for a while - the forecast for next week looks wet and windy. Have to make the most of this lovely autumn day before we get locked down again and unable to go anywhere

Had some lovely weather round here recently with sunny days and colourful sunsets but now things have gone downhill again. It was very windy today - much stronger than I expected - and more to come next week by the looks of it. Still, shouldn’t complain really - nothing to threaten the roof so far this autumn.

I like the cut of your jibs, chaps. Please keep up this ‘good news’ theme as I am in desperate need of cheering up. The UKMO rainfall accumulation chart for the next six days says almost everyone is going to get a soaking..... Oops. Too late. I think we’re already drenched.

Met office have an amber warning for rain covering most of Wales today, followed by a yellow warning tomorrow. We’re all getting very wet this weekend. No warning for wind as yet, but it’s worth expecting strong winds especially on the west coast. These four charts show four different models worst case maximum gusts between 10:00am and 2:00pm on Sunday and they don’t agree on the timing or the strength of the wind so there’s room for change: Mostly affecting south west Wales with up to 50mph gusts inland, and possibly 65-70mph on exposed western coasts. Worth noting that other models are not as bullish about the maximum gusts so it might not get as bad as the above charts indicate. Is this just a warm-up for things to come later in the Autumn, though?

Now we're getting to it - heavy rain here accompanied by strong winds. It's not nice out there at all. No doubt its worse in some other areas further south and nearer to the storm centre, but I'm hoping that there will not be any more flooding to cope with this year, on top of everything else that's happened.

Is this what is meteorologically termed a ‘channel low’.......? 75-80 mph gusts for the IOW possibly. (Arpege +57h 11am 2nd October)

Jeez. As others have said, wet and windy coming up. The GFS wants to keep this pesky low pressure system around for five days solid. Quite stormy at times too....

There’s no doubt that the low pressure heading our way could intensify but unusually, for this run at least, the GFS intensifies the storm over France on Saturday while the others suggest it will be over the UK on Monday. Not much to say except at least it won’t be too cold..... GEM had us right in the bullseye. 500s 850s +96 h 3rd October ECM UKMO GFS GEM +144 h. 5th October ECM UKMO GFS GEM

A love a colourful sky!