Sky Full

Yes indeed. Heavy, driving rain and strong winds which kept me awake last night. Quite a change but nothing unusual for this time of year, I suppose. I think I’ve had enough of winter now and I’m looking forward to some warmer, calmer weather - soon I hope.

It’s so hard to predict this event - the mild air is tracking ever further east but the highest definition models all show some measurable snow accumulation by 11:00am in Pembrokeshire - pretty much centred by Narberth! I think the Preselis are grabbing the heaviest snow before it reaches me but you should be in just the right location. It’s quite light snow here and blowing around all over the place so I don’t think we’re going to be snowed in today !

In the last 10 minutes, my WeatherHD app local forecast for today has changed from freezing rain to moderate snow - a little late but welcome all the same! They must have looked out of their own window.....!

It’s let up a bit suddenly now, but the radar says there’s something heavier on the way. I’ll just have to wait and see.

Sounds good! We’re in a very windy location here and I’m guessing the snow is just being swept along to accumulate in hollows somewhere else. It’s beginning to stick on the grass and gravel but nowhere near 2cms yet....

It’s snowing moderately here in strong winds so not settling as such - just accumulating in mini-drifts in corners. Started after I got up at 6:00am but looks like it could last a couple of hours. Would be good if it doesn’t turn to rain but it’s on a knife edge. Any higher elevations will probably get all snow. Sadly it’s not going to last as milder air moves in from the west later. However, the recent extreme cold and penetrating winds have done their worst around the garden and I must say that Spring can’t come soon enough now.

For your enjoyment......the next 10 days surface temperatures according to the GFS 0.25 HR. 06h....... It’s spot the positive surface temperatures time - even during the day - as cold air digs in for the next 10 days. My 1.9C February CET forecast might be looking a little too high.....

GFS 0Z -v- GFS 6z for 07:00 16th February...... ( +240h) 500s 850s 0Z 6Z Quite an abrupt U turn for two adjacent runs even if it is still 10 days away. Don’t be fooled into thinking that the later run is more likely to happen than the earlier one though....

. No beating about the bush, then? Absolutely love your humour, Knocker. Maybe you should be saying ‘Winters over...”.

Yay! Bring it on! Winter’s over in three weeks and two days anyway...... plus, we always get more snow in March than any other month!

Hi snefnug. In addition to the previous excellent answer .... aside from water in outbuildings and external taps (which should have special attention and should be isolated from within if possible) you aren’t really at risk internally as long as temperatures remain above about -1C. If the outlook changes to several days of very cold temperatures (below -1C all day and night) then internal pipes of unheated houses can freeze so keep the heating on low all the time. If we get low temperatures together with very strong winds this increases the risk of cold penetration into unlined roof spaces, so floor-laid insulation in lofts may not be enough if there are exposed water tanks up there. I don’t think we’re expecting a big freeze like that but keep an eye on the forecasts because you never know with an easterly.....

I love that! I reckon you should post that in the MAD thread - they’ll love it.

There’s still a lot of things need to fall into place, it’s true. But once the cold air is brought in from the east, we can expect a snowy breakdown as the warmer Atlantic air attempts to push it away later. It’s Wales that will be on the receiving end of that. Of course, it might not happen, but all the indications are there at the moment.

Weelll....not much anyway.

That chart is a thing of beauty. What a stunner. But I will see your ECM and raise you the GEM snow depth chart (10th Feb)...... A possible 15cm for the Preselis!!?

Here’s all the models at +168hr (8th Feb) ..... (UKMO at +144hr)..... 500s. 850s UKMO , ECM GFS GEM JMA NAV Remarkable agreement, especially between ECM and GEM. It’s pretty inconceivable that they might all backtrack within the next five or six days so we’re definitely in for a cold easterly blast, I reckon.

If this competition is still open for entries, I would like 1.9C and 91mm, please. Thanks!

Well here’s a chart which might put a smile on your face! That’s the Swiss weather model (where, in fairness, they do know a bit about snow...!) for the 10th February showing an impossible (?) amount of snow over Wales. This is the result of cold air in the east battling the slightly milder air in the west but I’m not for one minute suggesting it could happen like this. Or could it......?

My goodness! If it happens like that this place will go into meltdown....with apologies for that particular metaphor.

So much blue on your charts above.....looks genuinely cold and at exactly the right time of winter, too. This could be a very memorable event especially for the eastern side of the country.

....and in other news I can’t keep the starlings off my nuts....

Just goes to show that you can’t put any faith in these radar images....

ECM snow depth chart for 11pm tonight...... A good one for Wales!! Lucky for Bala! (elevation 1358ft asl). Let’s hope we see this repeated at least once more before the end of February.

Look at this radar image - suggests its snowing nearly everywhere in Wales now...... All the areas in Wales to the east of the current line of pink in this chart should at least see snow flakes today.

Just been out to check ... 3cm so far on a plank of wood. Not as much as it looks in the picture and we did a lot better last week but I’m not complaining. Radar says it changes to rain at 11:30am and it’s definitely lighter now.