SizzlingHeat

Yes you are right. Seems to be back on track now at T120. Lets hope for further improvements

Not great so far. Cold uppers being squeezed south into France. Iceland shortwave not allowing pressure to push the cold this way.... Lets see how it progresses from here. Cold delayed by 12 hours or so. Another setback?

Not sure why people are moaning that -8c uppers would not bring snow. Given that the uppers across Poole this afternoon are -4c and the temperature is +7c, the dew point is 0c. This shows continental sources air will bring in lower dew points from the continent rather than higher dew points off the Atlantic if this was from a NW direction. Therefore -8c uppers after the initial -10/12c uppers will result in dew points on the coast of between -3 and -5 with inland regions even lower. Any precipitation therefore is guaranteed to be snow.

The coldest uppers seem to be always post 144. The Easterly seems a lot slacker with more shortwaves causing a less clean flow. Not sure we will be looking at -15 or more uppers any more. Always seems to be delayed by 6 hours then another 6 hours and so on.

All snow down to sea level right on the coast. Dew points well below freezing. Temps of zero also.

168 is not as cold but still widely below the threshold for snow. Small embedded low crossing bringing widespread snow. Looks like 192 will be on the money with the super duper low uppers. However, we cant seem to get the substantial uppers within a 168-192 window??? Still bitterly cold and snowy nonetheless

Pressure seems quite high as well?

Geography a bit out. I meant Norway lol. Just not as clean as it could be I suppose.

Not sure what to make of 120. Seems a shortwave has formed over Finland. Probs delay the proper cold again. Lets see how it progresses

Looking great at T92 on ECM. High aligning lovely. No shortwaves. Better orientation than 6z. Cold should come in quicker here. Looking fantastic!

The op is quite a warm outlier after the 1st. Many of the runs keep the cold going much longer. The op has most likely overblown that low and milder air at T200

Lets hope it sticks to its guns hey. Would love some proper winter weather. Seems impossible nowadays. Fleeting frosts and the occasional sleet shower has become more the norm now. Some serious cold and snowy weather would be much appreciated. I just cant see it happening after the 12s so far...unless the ecm thinks otherwise. Lets hope!

No, only 36 hours ago things were looking a LOT better than now. The 12z has practically followed the 6z which followed the 0z. Disruptive snow was looking fairly plausible until yesterday evening. Now all the main models have moved away from the idea of frontal snow on Tuesday to leave a few dribs and drabs in a few places. A slack northerly then takes hold for a couple of days giving dry, sunny and cold weather with severe frost at night. Yes, thats lovely, but its boring and typical of early Feb. Nothing unusual, nothing out the ordinary. Yes, the ecm may suggest otherwise but unless the gfs tracks towards the extremeities of the ecm, then a lot of people are gonna be dissapointed, particularly given the complete over the top posts about 'a foot of snow's etc which isnt true and isnt helpful for those with no understanding.

Gfs 12z...boring, rather flat. Cold yes but not overwhelming and dry...some fragmented snow Tuesday to amount to barely a dusting for a few

Haven't followed or posted in a while. Been reading some of the comments and it seems the weather is going to get colder. Examining the charts it appears that the -10 isotherm will be making an appearance once more. However I don't see much snow in the mix. Western and Eastern extremeities will be exposed so some snow on Tuesday but any frontal snow looks to be fizzling our quickly from the West. This then leaves a slack Easterly followed by a more Westerly regime by the following weekend. Yes it's looking cold perhaps very cold in places, but snow may be hard to find. Strong frosts and ice with days near freezing seem more likely but only relatively until the Atlantic comes back again. The charts seen wintery for the next week or so but not particularly exceptional and I always find the more exceptional charts gets watered down by t-48. I will go with a 3-4 day nationwide cold snap beginning Monday with some snow possibilities almost anywhere but no disruptive of heavy snow anywhere. Emphasis being on the cold and frost.

Heavy now in Poole. Cars going white

Still snowing in Poole. A lot of flakes and very windy. Not setting however. Still nice to see though for once

Moderate snow in Poole at sea level. Thick white flakes no rain

So another couple of cold days followed by a milder weekend and then a mild week followed by perhaps a stormy beginning to next weekend. Not much cold showing up now anymore.

Not been around on here since the summer and not even looked at the charts since august! However, it is pretty chilly at the moment which is why I thought I would have a look at the charts to see what is happening. Looks like we are in a chilly northerly at the moment but nothing unusual it seems. High then seems to be close by from the weekend onwards with milder weather in time for the new working week. Looks like GFS wants to try for another northerly of some sorts but long long way in FI. ECM showing much milder conditions next week with GEM on similar page. Ukmo showing benign yet boring and rather milder weather from the weekend also. At least for now, its a little more seasonal. Shame theres no major signs of anything apart from normal in the foreseeable. Please let me know if im wrong but thats what the models are showing this evening from a new pair of eyes perspective. Not had time to read through the last few pages, but clearly there has been some excitement given the amount of pages in less than 2 days. Clearly what perhaps was showing is no longer there or am I missing something?

I must admit, I have gone old school the past 10 days. I haven't looked at the charts once or logged on here to see what's been going on, just enjoying each day on the beach, in the garden, having bbqs, long swims in the sea, spot of kayaking. Not a care in the world what the weather will be doing in 3 or 4 days time just enjoying each day and the unknown. Its been lovely. No idea what its showing for next week,haven't looked and dont give a toss. Last one from me this summer. Goodnight.

Looks like a lot of outdoor events are going to be truly rained off next week. Cant see a way out either... Reminds me of 2012! Things may change in a few weeks but until then... Time to dust off those umbrellas. Oh and the ECM 850hpa charts on meteociel are so unbelievably mis leading too. Yes, the upper air temps of 0-10 degrees are yellow and orange (what you would associate with warmth) are not representative. Look at the ECM rain forecast, tie that in with the 850s you certainly wont be saying mid twenties... So mis leading. Mid to high teens at best.

12z shows atrocious weather from the end of the weekend right throughout next week. Low pressure centred bang over the UK with lots of rain, wind and cool temperatures for the time of year. A southerly tracking jet responsible for these abysmal conditions. Slow improvement into the following weekend but nothing particularly summer like at all for the foreseeable. Please frosty, can you stop saying how good things are going to get blah blah blah nice and warm in the south East blah blah. The fact is that all major charts are not showing this and your posts really are entirely mis leading for those that rely heavily on people here with knowledge on how the weather is likely to unfold. 'rain mostly in North and West is utter rubbish. Next week looks appalling for all of the UK with below average temps, above average rain and high winds at time. Please stop trying to put a positive spin on dreary charts because those that dont know about the weather in detail will interpret your posts in a way that is not correct. I will no doubt get slated for being so pessimistic but this is the model thread and this is what the models are show across the board. Even the 7-10 day ECP show no sign of summer and is just as bas as gfs from next week. We may get a pattern change again mid July but in my opinion this spell of weather will be the best we will get all summer which is a shame.

Yes...well tomorrow could well be the best day of the entire summer. Even if we do get temps again upwards of the 30s, it's not going to be for a considerable time and considering tomorrow is the longest day, afterwards the nights will slowly start closing in. So enjoy tomorrow, before the dross sets in from the weekend and lasting as far as one can see. This will no doubt be the best spell of the summer in context of heat and also day length. Enjoy

Considering this is the model output and not the 'now' conditions, I have to say the change in pattern from this weekend is extremely disappointing with wind, rain and much cooler weather to dominate for the next 2 weeks. Cant believe how things could turn so quickly given the sensational weather of late. Extremely disappointing for the next 2 weeks of summer with some disturbed weather at time and an extremely southerly tracking jet stream. Havent looked at the charts for several days whilst ive enjoyed the weather but annoyed I did now because it has effectively ruined tomorrow's heat knowing what's to come around the corner shortly..