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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
SizzlingHeat replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If it was progged to be more than a 24-36 hour window for some temporary snow followed by a rapid thaw in an ever strengthening sun, then I would be game for it to go north again. However, the sun is now almost as strong as the last third of september and therefore even if there was some last season snow (for some) its gonna be gone in a blink according to most charts from Tuesday onwards. -5c uppers end of march roughly equates to 7 or 8 degrees. If this was mid to end of February, I would be all for it. However its going to be brief by the looks of it and the trend has been south by all major models and therefore any substantial snow which lasts more than a few hours for most people just isnt likely to happen. Just like when the summer is often wet and cool then mid to end of September we have a late surge of heat. Yes it's nice for some, but it doesnt last and the evenings drawing in quickly soon take away the enjoyment of the daytime dwindling sunshine. Why these charts have to show up when its almost too late. I understand that many significant snow events have happened during march and indeed April but require absolutely exceptional circumstances. Yes -15c flirting with the east in mid to late march is special, its just not going to bring the same temps or dew points as it would if it were to occur in jan or Feb for instance, when the days are shorter and the sun weaker. The beast from two weeks ago was fantastic for most people who enjoy that kind of weather including myself. However, now the daffs are out and the sun is ever higher in the sky I just want some warmer/milder weather now going into proper spring soon. A few hours of snow and more central heating followed by a rapid thaw is not what im looking for from this time onwards. Those who do then that's absolutely fine too. -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
SizzlingHeat replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Icon 18z shows Easterly winds arriving this weekend but there has been a noticeable shift south with the bulk of the coldest uppers and instability south of the UK through the channel and northern France. There is still an area of snow moving east to west across southern England on this run but much further south and less widespread than the 12z. I for one am hoping this southerly trend continues. Would be nice to have some nice sunny days next week for once with temps back towards the 5-8c mark for many after Tuesday. Long way to go to call this though but the trend is definitely south compared to this morning and last night. 18z Vs 12z for 16:00 Sunday 18th -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
SizzlingHeat replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm pleased that the 12zs have shifted the high south cutting off the cold air sooner. Dry and sunny will beat briefly cold and snowy, particularly this time of year. Some warmer sunnier days would be appreciated now please. Its been a very long winter! -
Short range model discussion - into 2018
SizzlingHeat replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Precip on radar too far west? For Dorset anyway? -
This is what I posted about earlier this evening. Been trawling the high Res models yet none of them, by a significant degree show anything like the TV forecasts are showing. Presuming they know something we dont (aka how the approaching warm front engages with the cold air) then I am very surprised they have stuck their neck out to suggest up to 20cm of snow on Thursday. The current charts show no more than a couple of cms at best in the most prone locations. The wind, if anything could be more disruptive and wind chill severe. If the models continue to show the extent of the snow Thurs/Fri I would expect a significant downgrade from the met, perhaps even to downgrade the warning from amber to yellow. I would suggest 2-5cm at most having trawled the high Res 12zs this evening. 18z icon very patchy across the south west and none really getting any further than the east of Dorset.
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Had a heavy snow shower in Poole for approx 20 mins. Cars, roofs, pavements and grass has a dusting which is now freezing over. Fantastic update from the metoffice regarding up to 20cm for Thurs. Cant see where all the precip is coming from? Looked on the models in high Res including some high Res models and most are not showing anywhere near the amount forecasted by metoffice? For example the icon shows light snow not accumulating to much along far southern counties. Gfs not showing much for Thursday at all and redeems itself for Friday. NMM only showing light snow across the south coast Thursday! So im confused. Unless they have confidence in the gem for Thursday which is brilliant! Any thought on this anybody? Regards
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
SizzlingHeat replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That's low pressure and the winds southerly over Ireland lol- 1,198 replies
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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
SizzlingHeat replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So the gfs this morning is showing a cold snap from Monday to Thursday then brief heavy snow quickly turning to rain in the south overnight into Friday. The gem has a similar theme but keeps the low further south and the ECM has the low further south still. Its not encouraging that the gfs continues to show this happening but as per usual the gfs is renowned for over blowing lows and is more progressive generally than the other models. This should start correcting south and east slightly by this evening. However it's not too encouraging that the ukmo shows a similar chart to gfs at 144 so im very cautious at the moment. It just seems that every time there is a decent chance at some proper snow, it gets displaced. Before then obviously plenty of snow around this week but very dissapointing to see how it could potentially end. Not a great start to Saturday! Hopefully an improvement on the 12z. Lets all hope!! -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
SizzlingHeat replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Continental Easterly/south Easterly and uppers of between -7 and -10 widely = temps at 0 or below and dew points -3 to -6. Absolutely no marginality whatsoever even right on the coast. -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
SizzlingHeat replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well GFS was mild outlier from next Friday also an outlier on precipitation. 90% of members continue with -10 uppers and shallower low. Op has blown low up too much I believe -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
SizzlingHeat replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes. Rolling out now -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
SizzlingHeat replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well it's been sniffing around the ops for some time now. If only it could go straight under the block instead of swinging winds round to SE direction eventually ushering in milder air. Just have to keep watch on this one. -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
SizzlingHeat replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The low in the Azores is concerning for prolonging the cold. Looks to make inroads towards tail end of the week again.... -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
SizzlingHeat replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
My only complaint, whilst fantastic for a relatively short time, that Iberian low has blown up significantly and is close to the south. Similar with gfs and has been hinted recently. We would rather have that low travel west to east than south west to North East because unless it goes east of the UK then it will likely fill over us and bring the milder air in rather quickly. Just a small concern but again all miles into FI -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
SizzlingHeat replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion