SizzlingHeat

Any low pressure is well into FI. Again today the main models have shifted the so called 'breakdown' to the week of the 16th whereas it was showing the latter part of next week until today. I cant see how the 6z will verify in FI with the low pressure domination. As long as it stays well away and not into the reliable timeframe I will pay no attention to it. Another 7-10 days of dry sunny and warm weather (sometimes hot) for the majority. No sign of a breakdown or change just yet. And I agree....no we dont need rain!!! Its summer and rain can do one until the end of sept at the earliest then it can rain for as long as it wants!!! Until December and it turns to snow of course!! Loving this dry, continental weather!

It was a light hearted, joke based on one model run. It wasnt meant to be taken literally. Lighten up

RIP summer according to ECM. Enjoy this weekend. Its downhill from then. Cant complain, its been a great spell of weather after all

18z GFS with an almighty high pressure system across the entire UK once more. This chart for a week today is showing blue skies and temps nudging 30c in places again. Looks like the British Grand Prix is going to be a scorcher this year.

I think the 'red' colours are misleading you. The darker the red does not necessarily translate to hotter temperatures. You need to be looking at the 850s and thickness levels which represent the temperatures likely at ground level. The 850s on this run show widely 10-12c across the UK. With very dry ground and strong sun you would add approximately 16-18c on top of that temperature. Therefore 12 + 18 is going to provide 30c at surface level. The difference this week was the uppers were higher that next weekend. In fact, 13-16c widely across the UK last Wednesday and 13-15c across the west widely until Saturday which resulted in temps nudging the low thirties. The uppers today scraped 16c across the south resulting in a high of 32c.

That's wrong. The temps for next Saturday are 25-29c on GFS. Not sure where you see temps of mid thirties on that chart? Not with uppers of 12c Edit- Sunday showing high twenties. Would get to between 30-32c thought with the GFS underestimation of temps. However, mid to high thirties are NOT on the cards for next weekend. I emphasise absolutely not. Nowhere near sufficient conditions for that level of heat. Very misleading post for those with little knowledge.

Right. Enough model watching and contributing towards this forum. I am signing off now for the rest of this week to enjoy the sun/warm weather. I hope you all enjoy the weather as well.

If the GFS was to come to fruition, it would be a rather exceptional and possible dangerous/damaging heatwave. Probably the worst since 2003. Temps relentlessly above 30 for many many days for a large proportion of the UK. No sign of any let up for the foreseeable according to this. UKMO is similarly an inferno and GEM, well need I say more!! #scorching

Although, all good to 120 so far!

No but it correctly called the northern push of the high so it's obviously ahead of the game. If the ECM follows suit with gfs I think we can say it's a very plausible outcome

Disappointed in the gradual decline in high pressure from the GFS particularly. We all mocked the ECM last night shifting the high further north but it's come back to bite with that high pushing further north with each run. Still lovely across the most part next week but becoming increasingly uninspiring afterwards. The UKMO is much better but I feel its the outcome of the ECM to decide which way this is going.

Some of the moaning on here could almost compete with iceman 85 !! What's to moan about? A high pressure dominated run in high summer with temps of mid to high twenties widely. The charts a couple of days ago have blinded people with +15c uppers and temps in the 30s. Yes its showing cooler weather (for now but that could easily change) but still SUNNY and very warm with lovely temps above average and little if any rain. Going back to June 2012 we would be crying out for charts only half as good as the ones for next week. Puts things into perspective. Heatwave looking less likely next week but warm or very warm for most with chances of 30c or more still not entirely out of the question! People spend more time searching for the weather they desire than actually stepping outside and enjoying the weather we have/upcoming. 25 degrees, 27 degrees or 30 degrees, it's still fantastic nonetheless

Although it may be an outlier when comparing across models, it certainly isn't an outlier when it's viewed amongst other members in the ensembles. Many of the perturbations going above 15 and up to 18-19c in some instances. The mean sits comfortably between 10-15c uppers right through until 2nd week of July. This is for Poole (south coast) but still pretty representative nationwide

Looks phenomenal. The heat generated from midweek and particularly towards the end of the week would be well into the mid thirties for many if this solution was anywhere close. Even from the start of the week it's very warm with high twenties from Sunday / Monday.

The GEM this morning is a sight of beauty. High pressure anchored favourably for the entire week with 850s approaching 18-19c by the weekend across the south. Widely beweetn 12 and 17 uppers from mid week. Looks fantastic!

Why is the GEM 12z taking so long to trickle out? Would be good to have seen the input from this model this evening given its consistency of late.

At T216 I won't pay much attention to minor variations. As long as the high is still in place, small changes will cause subtle temperature changes. Still high twenties on this chart though so unlikely to be particularly noticeable at surface level whether it's 28-29 or 31-32. Still lovely.

Less hot ECM. Unlikely to breach 30 anywhere with that setup. Still sunny and 'very warm' rather than 'hot' with temps of 28c I would imagine. Still fantastic and only another possible variation to the theme. See where it sits on the ensembles later

Well the ECM once more absolutely stunning!! The good news is the 00z GFS was a significant cool and wet outlier after day 10 with a substantial cluster including control run extending the heat well into July. Top stuff again!

Already talking about the end when it hasnt even started

How odd indeed! I did actually think the 850s looked a tad low on wetter. Very strange but that would certainly make more sense! As you say though doesn't really alter the output, who have is still glorious!!

Fantastic ECM 12z mean once again. Solid heights across the entire UK for the entire run with 850s above 10-12c for 5 solid days across most of England and Wales during next week which would suggest several days of 30 degrees is looking likely. Rock solid support across the board for an incredible end to June. Mediterranean blue skies for most with light winds and soaring temperatures. UV levels very high also. One thing to note, I was looking at the heatwave of 1976 where 35.6c was recorded in Southampton on June 28th. 850s were not above 15c for most of the hot spell and with 15c and above looking a distinct possibility I wouldnt be surprised to see a 35degree or touch higher if some of the output which is showing materialises. Phenomenal stuff. Bring it on. BBQs, lovely warm evenings, sea swims after work and happy people! ?️?️?️

Oh 19 degrees. How terrible?!

I dont beg for these conditions, I just appreciate the varied weather and dont moan relentlessly. I live in dorset, a beautiful part of the country. Why would I want to live anywhere else?

Sweaty, stifling, sizzling, outrageous 6z. Fantastic?!!!??