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Everything posted by SizzlingHeat
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GEM and UKMO have the storm further south as opposed to GFS and icon. Could go down to the wire regarding its track. Wont be resolved until much closer to the time I would imagine
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I don't think I've ever seen such a deep low modelled within 60 hours across the south of the UK. That would be horrific and red warnings widely for Thursday morning. Although it could still end up further south. Very fine margins
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If that arpege 12z is anywhere close to the mark then that would be seriously concerning for so many people. Gusts along the south coast of 90-100mph and 80mph inland. Very very worrying indeed.
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
SizzlingHeat replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The 6z GFS brings things more in line with what the ECM has been showing, which is much improved from the 0z. I did wonder how many times the op run has been consistently at the bottom of its ensembles before it would revert slightly, which makes large differences to the weather. If GFS was correct then quite a reasonable week ahead although breezy but plenty of sunshine and reasonable temps for April out of the wind and in the sunshine. -
Cant wait for a spell of cold rain here in Poole. Absolutely vile, the worst kind of weather. Give me anything except for cold, miserable rain. Would much prefer a sharp northerly in April when the sun is stronger and the showers are often thundery with hail and those towering cumulus the April sunshine can generate. But this cold, grey rain and drizzle can do one!
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Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
SizzlingHeat replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Hope so. The cold is pretty useless down here on the south coast. Its just cold and dry usually. Unless we get an easterly with a channel low, but its so rare for snow down here, its just a nuisance having to scrape the car every morning and spending a second mortgage staying warm. Mild means the windows can be opened a little in the day, less clothes going out etc. This week is certainly very mild at times, hopefully that will be it for cold now! -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
SizzlingHeat replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I do hope the ECM is on the money. Mild, yes please! This cold has been too much and very expensive to keep the house warm. Hopefully the milder weather will stick around for a while now. The cold can do one for the time being! The GFS shows some wintry interest at christmas but hopefully the other models prevail in their mild outlook. -
Totally. The cold air is just decimating the intensity of the band and isnt making progress. The vast majority under the band arent reporting any precip so another problem with evaporation before reaching the ground. Not worth the effort. I will probs check in again before midnight and see if anything has changed, but its very tiresome watching for what is likely to be nothing, but good luck!
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Ecm has the furthest inroads from the front, JUST about getting into South Dorset, South Devon and cornwall, but thats the limit. GFS has the precip literally skirting the immediate coastline of Dorset but no further. Other models keep the front out in the channel. No models show any accumulation aside from across South devon over the hills. But Sunday's system was a surprise for many, so perhaps this could surprise many of us and be further north. Unlikely but probs best to keep checking the radar for any surprises.