SizzlingHeat

Very frustrating. Its so rare to see snow down here and when the radar suggests snow and nothing is falling its very annoying.

Radar suggests snow here now in Poole, but there is nothing falling. Its -2 so plenty cold enough but nothing

The issue with this is that it would be so cold, there is going to be a huge health crisis with so many people not able to afford to put their heating on. This would be catastrophic for millions of people, literally frozen in their homes. From that perspective if this was anywhere near close, it has picked the wrong year! There would be so many excess deaths.

I have to admit that I havent been on this site now for some time and I no longer follow the weather models like I used to, however I heard on the radio that there has been a cold weather alert issued by the met office. So, with this in mind I had a look, for the first time since the summer at the GFS, ECM etc but am a little perplexed to what they are showing. Yes, its going to get colder everywhere, but it does seem very dry with limited precipitation anywhere aside from exposed coasts. I am also very underwhelmed by the forecast 850s, which barely drop below -5/-6c for the duration with occasional increases to -4/-3c particularly across the SW. This doesn't seem like it would be that cold surely and any precipitation would be mostly cold rain rather than snow? Perhaps my lack of enthusiasm with weather and waning knowledge of the models has me doubting a lot more now. I remember cold spells from the past with -10c air entrenched over the UK for days, with occasional outbreaks of -15c but this seems very watered down and dry given such hype and excitement from a lot of members on here. Perhaps I am looking negatively, but I cant fathom too much excitement from a very dry cold spell with a few days of overnight frosts/little snow? Regards

The temps showing for Wednesday afternoon according to the ECM are mid to high twenties still widely across most of the country. Given the op was at the lower of the ensembles I would suggest that 30c+ would still be very likely for many on Wednesday as well.

And the rest... Tuesday into the 30s widely. Wednesday still 30c likely in the south then mid twenties briefly before hot again. Many parts of the south wont see temps below high 20s from tomorrow through another 7 days minimum

Just had a look at the charts for the first time since the beginning of June. Been too busy to be looking all the time unfortunately. However, WOW look at these charts for the next week and beyond. Absolutely stunning. Lots of sunshine and high temperatures. Looking fantastic. I only came on because the radio said it was getting much warmer but what a treat. Last time I looked there wasnt even average temps for a couple of weeks with low pressure dominating. What happened? Cant wait for some sunshine and warmth

At least the next 7 days of temps between mid twenties and low thirties. How much better do you want lol?

Windy in Poole today, but not really exceptional. Had some strong gusts for about 2 hours, but there hasnt been any damage to trees or buildings here. A few reported around Bournemouth and Poole. I can see a fence panel blown over but that's it. Wind dropped here now and suns out. Have to say that I completely forgot about this storm until I turned on the radio. It was relatively windy, but nothing else. Perhaps because I wasnt really paying attention whilst WFH. Anyhow, its a lovely looking day now. Will try and get a walk in before more rain for tomorrow

Never get anything on the south coast. No snow, strong winds or anything that resembles exciting. These storms always falter for this part of the country either going too far north or dropping south. Not sure why and its very frustrating.

Never mind. Another yawnfest of a winter. Roll on summer. At least its odds on for sunny weather in this part of the country, at least for a few weeks. I'm off, good night and God bless. I will pop back in for the summer

GFS creeps north *again* surprise surprise. At this rate it will be an ordinary windy day on the Dorset coast. *Yawn*

I dont know what models aside from icon showing the storm further south. Not sure where he is getting his info from. He references the ECM which has the strongest winds right across the south. The ECM 18z and meto show no change to the track.

Its a shame the UKMO doesnt do 3hr intervals but similar to GFS 12z with deep low crossing across the south with gusts between 70-90mph widely

Seems the ICON has very slightly tracked slightly further north than the 0Z, with the centre of the low tracking from North Devon to Norfolk whereas the 0z had the low centred slightly further south exiting around south Suffolk / Essex. As a result, very high winds right along the south coast and inland southern England, slightly more inland than the 0z. Wind gusts even inland showing between 80-95mph.

You will need the 50% off discount to dine in the restaurant at the end of bmouth pier!!!

No That's the temperature scale going up to 46 degrees. The highest I can see is approximately 40c in France.

What a disappointment. I will be back in November! Adiós!

Yesterday 12z

GfS 18z is still not giving up though and clears the heat by Saturday! GFS sticks to its guns

GFS is jumper or cardigan weather in the shade after Saturday. ICON is escaping to the shade whilst swimming in a pool of ice cubes. Massive massive differences.

As I expected when viewing the mean 12z. The operational is the lowest of all its members within the suite.

The 12z mean for Saturday does not agree with the operational. Control run is also very hot with no signs of the trough come Saturday. I believe the op is likely to be a considerable cool outlier

The GFS 0z was a huge cool outlier. The ensembles show the average 850s above 15c again from next Friday for a number of days. Some members even get close to 20c again. The mean for next Saturday is 17c widely throughout the UK. I would suggest the GFS is entirely onboard

I was commenting on the 12z ECM. If something like that was to verify, then a a shot at 40c was possible. Nobody said it was going to happen, just discussing what was being shown at the time. Unlikely to happen and everybody knew it was an outlier from the onset, but doesn't prevent those talking about what could have been if the synoptics aligned as of the ECM last night. As it happens, its backed down again this morning which was entirely expected. Still...low possibly mid thirties quite widely for 2, possibly 3 days next week as was the overall consensus barring the extreme ECM last night. Nobody saw the ECM and said 'its going to be 40c next week' it was just a discussion on one run on one model, which showed the synoptics we would need to push that threshold.