SizzlingHeat

ECM is a disappointment but it's only one run. The signal for of high pressure is still very high. Each run will show a different position. Will look again this evening after the 12s to see how things are going

I'm afraid apart from this weekend, I have to entirely disagree with this post. Yes this weekend is looking very unsettled now for many but this this has been the case for some time now so is no surprise (and not a downgrade as a result!) You mention that the GFS and UKMO struggles to settle things down....well here is the UKMO at 144 hours. Looks far from being unsettled and is an improvement on what it was showing yesterday. The low in the Atlantic retreating and high pressure building firmly across all of the UK. Not what I would suggest as 'struggling to settle down' so could be construed as being misleading. You reference the GFS being an outlier in terms of heat for next week....well having a look through the ensemble members within the suite, all of the perturbations at 192 have the high pressure system thoroughly in control of the conditions bring hot or very hot conditions. Approx 80% of the members with the 15c isotherm over the UK. Only 20% of members have the high in a slightly different position with less hot uppers but still mid to high twenties at surface level. Here are all ensuite members at 192. Here is the representative mean at the same timeframe with a large blocking high pressure and mean uppers between 10 and 16c widely north to south. In addition, when you compare the operational run to all other members including the control run, you will see it was one of the, if not the coldest member within its suite. There is significant support widely this morning for a lengthy spell of hot or very hot conditions developing mid week onwards and lasting well into August. The GEM is also brilliant from midweek to day 10. There is absolutely no downgrade this morning.

Except the GFS is showing temps into low thirties as soon as a week tomorrow (2nd aug) and mid-high thirties by the Saturday 4th. Even 1st August is in the high twenties (nudging 30) according to this mornings run. Not sure why 30 would only be reached after the 4th. Well not if the majority of ensemble members are to be believed the heat begins on schedule (around 1st or 2nd August) as it has shown now for days and look to be scorching by the weekend. Doesn't look delayed or any less hot than you are suggesting

Yes its progressively cooler for this weekend compared to recent times but the heat is on for mid week next week onwards. Big support all round. Probably the hottest period of the summer still to come!

Looks like GFS's over progressive nature regarding the weekend has quite significant support across the board. Plenty of rain UK wide this weekend

Unsettled weekend says ECM 12z

GFS seems to be really struggling to lift the trough northwards to allow the high to build. Jet stream a touch too far south with a little too much oomph. Not overly inspiring although the main rebuild of heat is not due until end of the week it's just disappointing there's a lot more low pressure around early next week that what was shown only a day or two ago....

GFS weekend borderline washout for many. Would be a massive surprise if it keeps showing this in a couple of days. Been watching the low creep further east with every run to the extent its nearly on top of the UK come Sunday/Monday. Could be disruptive in terms of delaying or erasing the hot spell mid week!!

Not sure I've ever seen a MEAN chart at over 300 hours with temps showing high twenties....insane. Goes to show the massive support for a significant heatwave for the beginning of August

Yes, the signs are next weekend will cool off a touch but still low to mid twenties quite widely. Then there is growing support of some very hot weather into August. I think the first week of August is going to bring the hottest weather if the summer with temps likely to be mid thirties, possibly high thirties.

Except the charts you have posted are for next weekend....which is July. This is what the same model is predicting for August 1st Completely the opposite of what you have just posted.

on

6z evolving as I anticipated following on from yesterday's downgrades, yet my comments get dismissed. Lots of people including BBC looking to have egg on face for predicting ludicrous temps that were always well into fi

The 18z has illustrated my above post quite well. Even 30c looking difficult to achieve until next Saturday at the earliest

Having looked through the posts on here and the charts in detail this evening. I can't help but feel that the low pressure to the west is a little too close for comfort. Any of the significant heat misses to the east but only by a very fine margin. Don't get me wrong it looks hot in the south east and east in particular however more average/little above for the north and west (pretty typical summer fare) There seems to be a pretty clear dividing line on the ECM ensembles and mean with a line say roughly from Devon up towards Lincolnshire eastwards maintaining the 10+ isotherm throughout the next 10 days however further north and west, pressure and 850s are lower so therefore more likely to be relatively average weather with some sunshine and rain (similar I suppose to the meto extended outlook) I'm not suggesting the heat will not be more widespread, as shown by many of the GFS ensemble members, however I feel that those expecting mid thirties next week are likely to be disappointed. 30c is more than capable of being achieved in the usual spots in the south east but more mid twenties elsewhere (high twenties at times in central and southern areas) Unless the low to the west is further west which in turn would orientate the jet stream on a more south west to north east axis, I can't help but feel the majority of the more extreme temperatures are going to be across the near continent. Obviously there are discrepancies amongst models at the moment but this is my general analysis of what the charts are currently showing for next week. There are signs within the GFS and widely the ECM members that there will be further hot interludes likely as we enter August, particularly again in the south. However, those expecting nationwide heatwave conditions once more are likely to be somewhat disappointed I would imagine next week. Cloud amounts are forecast to be pretty high in places during next week with some showers and rain for some, particularly in the north and west. I would hope that there would be some agreement as we go through the weekend for next week. I believe Frosty may have dazzled some of you with the very best cluster of ensemble members for next week however what he hasn't shown is the cluster of less inspiring members within the suite and hopefully this post may give some clarity to those in the dark. SO FAR according to the runs across the models throughout the day, I would suggest the following outcomes in percentages; Very hot (heatwave conditions) 32-35c 20% Hot 28-30c- 70% Average- 10% The warmest and driest further south and east.

Just like it was 35 degrees for this Sunday!

Next Saturday 28th. (Just for fun as it won't happen) would no doubt bring temperatures of 38-39c inland south East England. The 2003 record would be close to being beaten

The GFS really is showing furnace heat from mid week next week. *IF* the 12z was anything close to the mark with above 15c uppers and sunshine I would imagine quite widely into the mid thirties widely across central and southern England. HOWEVER this time yesterday it was showing a dartboard low, so much caution is required and far from nailed. However, it's looking sensational for mid week next week according to this run. GFS temps at 3pm next Thursday showing widely 32c and we all know the GFS is renowned for undercooking temps.....

If the 12z GFS is a downgrade, then perhaps sunshine and 30c+ next wednesday and a Jetstream heading north is not for you

Great looking 12z so far from GFS. Yes. UKMO been all over the shot lately but GFS showing temps up to 30 on Sunday in the south

It's a good job these charts are at 186! Way too far out to be taken seriously but shows the potential route in around a weeks time. Lets hope not! Southerly tracking jet and large low pressure inbound!

I'm concerned with the evolution of the UKMO though, rather than pleasant weekend surface conditions. It doesn't seem to be leading down a particularly settled route longer term which the GFS and GEM are keen on.

Disappointing UKMO when you compare yesterday's 12z Vs today's. Seems to have backed the GFS and it's more progressive outlook On the contrary, the GFS 12z is less progressive again this evening. Its still all up in the air at the moment and disappointing there is such discrepancy even for the weekend.

Another awful GFS run from the mid to late frames. All FI of course and just as unlikely to verify as the 0z ECM! What's looking likely now however is a breakdown of sorts the beginning of next week with heavy showers and longer spells of rain for many. Although it is suggesting that 850s will remain relatively high so temps average if not above. GEM most progressive of them all this evening and utterly vile from the end of the weekend. Lets see what ECM brings

Yes but thankfully that's 10 days away and subject to change