SizzlingHeat

Because the south coast yesterday reached 23c in hazy sunshine, a southerly breeze and 8c isotherm. 22-23 degrees with 15c isotherm a week inside the longest day of the year with a hot preceeding weekend would not, absolutely no way generate 22-23c. Would be looking at the very least 25c pushing 30 in places. Today for example, 21 degrees progged in a fresh Westerly airflow in 7 degree upper air temps. Now tell me that if you double that upper air temp, a very warm humid southerly or south Easterly air flow with a preceeding weekend of 30 degree temps would only generate 22 or 23 degrees. Nonsense. I'm sorry but utter laughable.

The 00z continues to reinforce the hot weather this weekend and next week. Temps this weekend progged between 26 and 29 celcius in the south Saturday and then likely to breach 30 Sunday, perhaps a 31 or 32 degrees on Monday. The high then meanders across and to the east of us generating a south East flow across the country. 850s between 10 and 15c the whole week. Temps on the gfs for next week very conservative I would imagine given the heat from the weekend and strong sunshine. Gfs suggests nationwide between 21 and 25 but if this run come off as it suggests then between 25 and 30 nationwide with a likelihood of 30c being breached somewhere in the UK on consecutive days from Sunday through to next Friday. All subject to change but looking absolutely fantastic if you like heat and not so fantastic if you don't!

Well it was looking better early on but has kept its retrogression after all. Shame

12z currently showing a slightly more amplified jet by Friday evening, very slight adjustments but would result in a more ecm bias if it continues this output. Looks better than 6z even at this early stage. The 12z jet aligned more sw to ne rather than west to east which is better for the overall evolution

The GFS 6z shows a fantastic weekend for most of the country, particularly Midlands southwards with extensive sunshine and temps between 24 and 27 degrees on Saturday with values between 27 and 30 degrees Sunday. Monday, still warm in the south with 25 or 26 degrees and has a much less cool scenario than previous gfs runs with temps in the low 20s in south at the very least. Looking good.

Depends on cloud amounts which may be variable but still very warm nonetheless. Still, the gfs says no so who will win out?

Temps likely mid high twenties if ecm came off. Lets hope its right

How can the gfs and ecm be so vastly different in a relatively short time frame. Lets hope the ecm wins out

Its a way to escape this shi*** weather isnt it? Utter ridiculous. Once again the 12z delays the high coming in. Only 2 days ago it was progged for Thursday now it's Saturday. Same thing is this sh*t country. Chasing phantom high pressure cells that never come to fruition or if they do very quickly subside to more boll*** rain. That's what holiday homes are for aren't they. Just south of Granada overlooking the Sierra Nevada mountains. 35-39 degrees out there at the moment.

6z followed pretty closely to the 0z. High pressure finally arrives for the southern half at least, however doesnt quite make it and then retrogresses out into the Atlantic by the end of the weekend with a more northerly flow. Lets hope the 12z reinforces the high more centrally and deflects the jet further north. If it doesn't and follows similar to the 0 and 6z then I would anticipate the ecm to follow suit and then the upcoming potential warm spell to be a bit of a let down and restricted to one or 2 days only, mainly for the south. Lets hope this isnt the case (although 6z ensembles were in pretty good agreement for the high to be sucked away by the end of the weekend) which isnt a surprise given how this summer is going. Never mind im off to Spain in 2 weeks to remove myself from this grotty abysmal weather.

Yet, I was the one being slated for negativity yesterday. However, as I mentioned in previous posts, was just being realistic. 30 celcius was out of the equation as early as Monday. All models now in agreement for the breakdown Saturday which is a huge shame considering the charts were so fantastic recently. Looks warm in the south still on the weekend but more cloud and showers than initially expected. Noticed how BBC have finally back tracked on their phantom 30 degrees now as they have finally caught up with what the models were showing, which wasn't sunshine and 30 celcius but more low twenties, more cloud and some showers with the cold front clearing out to the east by late Saturday.

Looks like the folk over on two forum also agreeing with my input on a Saturday breakdown. Looks inevitable now unfortunately. Even ecm ensembles have a front across the country midday Saturday bring cloud and showers. Perhaps a squeeze to 27 degrees in far south East but the BBC banging on about 30 degrees they will have egg on their face!

There we go

However, more progressive again compared to the 00z and more akin to the gfs... Only going in one direction.

Just like the ARPEGE and GEM?

12z ecm. Saturday lunchtime. As expected, the breakdown has commenced. Showers and lots of cloud moving swiftly in. High uppers moving swiftly from west to east.

No, but if I did I wouldn't be deceiving the unknowledgeable public into false hopes of 30 degrees when it won't be!

I fully believe that to be conservative at the very least. I would love that to be the case don't get me wrong but just expect the worst.

Fully supported by the gem and ukmo. Ecm ensembles not as supportive as operational. You can't argue things haven't turned in favour of the gfs? Far more progressive outlook across the board for a leak of the higher temps out east during the first part of the weekend. I believe the BBC are hanging on to the ecm operational as much as they can but I still cannot phathom 30 celcius at all. Even mid twenties a push from recent output. It's not negatively, it's being realistic. There has been more and more similar runs from recent gfs runs including gem and ukmo. It just isn't looking the same as it was say this time 2 days ago. Yes,there are occasional runs like the 6z and ecm which prolong the warmth but more and more similar runs akin to the 12z are showing their hand. As much as I would love to keep the heat for the entire weekend, especially as having a big BBQ during the day Saturday I just don't feel confident any more and expecting the BBC to come on board with the breakdown on Saturday before the evening is out. 10-12 c isotherm in late may with showers just isnt supportive of 30 degrees.

Yes, ever since sunday the high has been forecast to slip away more quickly with each run. Its starting to become borderline whether friday will be entirely warm and dry now too. come thursday, no doubt the high will be gone at this rate. 'another' failed to materialise warm spell. Tomorrow isnt particularly sunny now, so thursday and friday are no the only real 'warmer days' and even then only around 22-24 celcius as opposed to the forecasted 25-29c a couple of days ago. Even the latest live forecast, darren bett look very edgy regarding the end of the week. less optimistic and appeared less confident.

the bbc will need to significantly revise their '30 degrees' outlook for saturday if this comes off. Shame

rain across the south west by morning on saturday. this 12z is bringing the breakdown in much quicker (again) already. Have a bbq planned for saturday and considering its been showing hot and sunny practically the entire of the last 5 days, this is not what i was hoping for! The 6z deflected the low out to sea with the heavy showers with it, but this is far more progressive. Not sure I can believe the gfs wants to break it down so quickly. Surely an outlier...surely?? edit: rain spreading across entire country during saturday daytime now, stark contrast to the 6z????

I think you will find it's unlikely the temps will get much past 27 perhaps 28c. Likely for Saturday only as growing agreement for Sunday to be cooler and cloudier. It's nice to try and hold out hope from the ecm but even if the uppers are correct, I feel too much cloud with scattered showers will reduce the chance of 30 degrees even more. Ukmo and gfs say no after Saturday even then only up to 25 or 26. I think Thursday and Friday will be the best days of the week. It's down hill from then

Latest runs water down the weekends warmth yet again. Saturday showing maxes of between 23-25c with increasing cloud, a freshening breeze and a chance of some showers. Sunday shows the majority of the plume has been pushed east of the UK, leaving a legacy of high cloud and temps between 21-23c whilst Monday between 19-21c with sun and clouds. It is such a shame but the ukmo is showing similar and ecm really on its own for prolonging or intensifying the warmth. BBC certainly going to re think the 30c for Saturday because they are going to be significantly off the mark imo. Still.... Time for changes being 3 days away but the general evolution is there now. Still warm overall but the phrase 'hot' will be used less frequently by meto by end of today. The weekend looks to be warm/very warm to begin with and becoming increasingly unsettled with showers, but some sun will remain, especially in the south East. Regards

Doubt if 30 will be breached if I'm honest.