SizzlingHeat

So for 72 hours most of the UK is covered by 20-23c uppers, slack southerly flow at the end of July (technically the prime time for high temperatures) There would be no doubt in my mind the all time high would be breached *if the ECM was correct* and a pretty decent chance of our 1st 40 degrees.

Savage heat. Would be incredible. But it's only one of the options on the table this evening.

Absolutely. I wouldn't bet against a 40c being breached by the Friday. Sunshine dependant. High 30s widely I would imagine

You could add some serious numbers to that with a setup like that ECM. 20-24c uppers in situ in peak summer. It wont be 34c believe me. 38-39c would be likely

168 ECM that's your 100F breached and the all time record smashed!

144 ECM

120 ECM

ECM breaks heat by the end of Tuesday.

So GFS says yes. GFS control says no GEM says no UKMO says maybe ECM says???? I would say 50/50 knife edge for heatwave next week. Looks pretty good up until Tuesday then who knows??

Well here in Poole its been a lovely spell of weather for the past 3 weeks. Lots of sunny, warm and very warm days. Temps have been between 21-26c most days. Sunshine most days as well. No rainfall since the summer solstice. Very pleasant summery weather. No need for much clothing apart from shorts and t shirt. Today has been sunny and warm (again) 25 degrees the high. We look to escape any showers for the foreseeable. Great for the tourists coming for the beach. Not even seen or want to look at any of the models such as GFS etc because im just enjoying the weather as it happens day by day. Havent been in the model thread since mid June so no idea if this weather will continue. However metoffice app shows dry and sunny weather right through the weekend and into next week with temps of 23-24 degrees. Wonderful.

I think that Temps up to and slightly above average with spells of sunshine interspersed with a 'few showers' is a significant improvement from this week's relentless rain, storms, flooding and temps in the low teens!

12z operational huge outlier, which isn't surprising. Although most members do show significant improvement, perhaps not to the extent of the op, but still much better than this week!

12Z GFS shows high pressure building from the south from Sunday/Monday with temps rising low to mid twenties, rising each day next week. Let's hope the ECM follows this emerging trend

It was sarcastic.... showing exactly as you say, how useless posting individual charts 2 weeks in advance are, the same as some individuals posting charts from a similar timeframe with low pressure.

Unsettled you mention?

No they don't. Run the GFS from the chart you have posted until the end of that particular run. No more northern blocking, high pressure becoming more dominant, with the jet moving further north. You cant cherry pick one chart in exactly 14 days and state there are no changes. There are huge changes to the vile, atrocious charts this week. Its pattern changes we are looking for, which is absolutely becoming more likely going into next week.

Did you purposely ignore the charts this GFS 12z showed for the week prior to this?

Quick summary of this evening's suite:

Well the good news is....the ECM is probably the some of the worse, if not the worse summer synoptics you will see in the UK for June. As a result, the 00z can only be better

Well....I've been away from looking at the models and this forum for the past 3 weeks or so. I haven't even checked the forecast on the TV or bbc. I've just been taking each day as it comes. This evening I thought I would take the plunge and have a look at the charts from 0z to 12z. Well.... I am gobsmacked at how utterly abysmal they are! I am utterly speechless. 2007 and 2009 carbon copy!!! Very little sign of hope on the horizon. What a shame, after last summer I was hoping that we might get a half decent shot this year but it seems perhaps at least the remainder or June is looking very autumnal. After that absymal, disgusting outlook, I wont be back until July at the earliest. Hopefully by then we might have some less autumnal looking weather. Time to put the heating back on! Chow

ECM. Yum, yuk and yuk. Apart from 3 or so days of sun and chilly temps, the outlook is total sh!!e Northern blocking and a pattern that would never show in winter, but then shows relentlessly approaching summer. Absolutely disgusting. I'm out.

Absolutely! So hopefully time for the northern blocking signal to be replaced with low pressure!

Those reds from Sunday through to Tuesday look fantastic at face value. Look at 850s and they are very disappointing. Recovering in the north and west then nationwide for Wednesday and Thursday. Looks to be relatively breezy in the south and east so probably quite chilly away from the west and north which would benefit from higher 850s and temps pushing 20c. 14-17 or 18c elsewhere. Chilly on southern and eastern coasts. Looks sunny and dry though which is better than rain! But no heatwave !

Well at least the ECM bring some widespread sunshine from Sunday onwards. Not looking likely that it will be particularly warm, perhaps below average across the south and east in a chilly breeze. Temps 14-17c in South and East with 17-20 across North and West. Again looking like northern blocking will take hold again after mid month, so an unsettled and cool spell again next weekend after a relatively sunny if not chilly spell for a few days next week.

It will be nice to see the sun again, however it's concerning to show northern blocking trying to re-establish itself again later on. Would much prefer it if low pressure would replace the HLB as that could become very dodgy later on towards the end of May. But 15-20c nationwide for 3 or 4 days would be pleasant enough for the time being.