Essan
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Posts posted by Essan
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The only thing faulty with the MetO warnings were the people who failed to read what the warnings actually said!
If you can't read, get Mummy to read them for you. The pweety yellow piccy-tures do not depict where snow is actually expected to fall .....-
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What the hell is wrong with the weather that they can get more snow in Saudi Arabia and Jordan than in the UK, over 1000 miles north??
Right, ok, so we have February left.....please, please, please, please can some god or other, get their act together? :-D
Thats the problem. The gods had a conferance (well, okay a jaffa cakes-up in Valhalla) in October and listened to everyone.
And for every person in Britain who wanted a severe, cold, snowy winter there were 10,000 who said they would be happy never to see snow again ....
Sad, but true.
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Met office have changed the forecast to rain or sleet all the way through now here...typical, how can they not have known that earlier
The Met Office have changed nothing.
The not-a-forecast is just a visual representation of the latest model output and changes accordingly every 6 hours, regardless of what the human forecasters think
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We have snow here too, not making much of an impact in terms of covering but it IS settling.
Shows how marginal it is around here - just rain in Evesham ....
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Its just raining in the Vale of Evesham ...
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And now its just raining ...
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light, sleety rain in Evesham atm - though did spot a couple of snowflakes on the walk home
+2.9c / DP +0.6c / RH 85% -
Just a few teeny, weeny, tiny icey little bits drifting down and just settling breifly on cars in Evesham in the past few minutes .....
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Interesting to read the 'real' MetO forecast for the W Midlands (ie created by humans, not computer) as issued 15.36pm .... I
This Evening and Tonight:Cloud will continue to thicken through this evening with outbreaks of sleet and snow moving in from the southwest. The snow will lie readily on the cold surfaces leading to some accumulations by the morning, especially across higher ground. Minimum Temperature 0C.
Wednesday:A cold and grey day across the region with further sporadic outbreaks of sleet and snow. The sleet and snow will gradually ease away later in the day. Maximum Temperature 4C.
There is no mention of rain whatsoever
Notwithstand which, I still expect rain across the Vale of Evesham (which is, after all, on the very southern edge of the region)-
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Heavier precipitation now appearing on the radar coming up over Brest ...
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Reading the MetO warning reminds me that one thing in our favour for snow tonight/tomorrow is that with low ground temps, if we do get any it has a chance of actually settling - unlike during the infamous slushfest of winter/spring 2013 ..... Whether it is snow to start with at my low altitude and location is, of course, another matter!
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Any MetO warnngs wont appear till later this morning - around 10.30/11.00 probably
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Well decent forecast from carol, shows snow from about 9pm for Midlands, lingers through till tomorrow afternoon, she mentioned southern northern England, Wales and Midlands should see it settle and there is a chance of seeing 'disruptive' snow above 100m which she mentions is most of us.
So looks like we could be the right side of marginal but just need the ppn to be there, I'll be on later
I need to quickly raise my house about 65m then
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Although the MetO algorithmic not-a-forecast now has me down for a couple of spells of light snow tonight and tomorrow, instead of rain, the model output itself suggests more likely just rain down here .... Very marginal for me, but perhaps a chance of some flakes though not expecting a covering on the ground.
Meanwhile, at -4.1c I saw my lowest temp this morning since 14th March 2013 and joint lowest since 11th Feb 2012. -
Looks at GFS 12z I would expect warnings for icy roads Wednesday morning - looks like turning quite treacherous with a good freeze after the (light, patchy) rain has cleared east ....
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All over the shop, BBC now saying heavy snow for Nottingham tomorrow night LOL
When you say the BBC, do you mean an actual BBC TV forecast?
Or do you mean the BBC's algorithmic not-a-forecast? (the pictures on their website) Which is not quite the same thing
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Whichever model you look at, it would appear that Evesham is perfectly placed to get nothing but rain this week ..... Oh well, we did have a few flakes and hopefully someone willmanage a decent covering. Always next year ....
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Met Office have me down for a snow fest on Wednesday :S
The MetO algorithmic not-a-forecast has me down for rain on Weds, with not even a sleet symbol to be seen all week!
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Just rain here too ...
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Precipitation across North Wales and the Northwest is now sinking southeast and in our direction.
However, as always, it's got to leapfrog those mountains and we've seen greater amounts than this dissappear in the past before. So I wouldn't get excited about the current radar frames. As soon as things get east and south of say, Welshpool/Shrewsbury, that's when we can start looking out for it.
Seems too big an ask though.
Edit: It's already breaking up...need more northerly!
I am not expecting anything, but nonetheless, whatever the forecast says, its another night of radar watching (the only reliable short-term forecasting tool there is) - and who knows, some of us may be in for a surpise. We will see.
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Well yes of course...which is why I went on to make the point about January 2010.
Although I have found the Met Office forecasts fairly reliable this winter.
The point is, they are not forecasts, just visual representations of the most recent Euro4 model run
Useful to compare over a number of runs, but not worth get het up about. Especially when other models show differently.
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We never get above 20% chance for anything until Tuesday evening.
But only according to the Met Office Algorythmic not-a-forecast .....
One run by one model doth not a forecast make
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It'll be interesting to see what happens tonight down here. The Met Office algorythmic not-a-forecast (which I assume is based on the 6 hourly Euro4 runs) currently has rain for Evesham from 11pm to 2am. This is not surprising since it also shows the temperature dropping only to 3c through this evening ..... (finally falling to freezing towards dawn, after the rain/sleet/snow has long cleared away)
However, if the temp drops off more than that, then I would think the risk of snow increases, albeit rain/sleet always more likely at this low altitude.
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Those showers forming over the Welsh hills are unlikely to make it through to the Midlands - they all get zapped by Offa's Dyke
The Midlands - Weather Chat
in Regional
Posted
I got down to -4.8c in my garden in Evesham - that's the coldest for 35 months ....