Essan
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Posts posted by Essan
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So, if it does snow tonight, won't it melt tomorrow with temps of 4'c?
I need snow that sticks for at least 2 days, anything else just makes me mourn for what could have been, I so hate that 'drip drip' :-(
I would rather snow that melt than no snow at all
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I think surprises in the model outlook will make People Smile
:D Moreover, I think actual developments - regardless of what one model run or another, shows, will make people smile. Though of course, not everyone. This is after all Britain!
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Wine and (homeade) chilli for me tonight.
Not expecting anything down here tomorrow morning, though the chance of some sleetiness makes it interesting. looks like being a chilly night (surprised to see that so far I have only had one air frost here so far this year - think that is about to change!). To soon to worry about what may happen Tuesday night but its nice knowing that the possibility of snow at some point over the next week exists - thats what weather watching is all about-
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Nothing new
http://www.schulphysik.de/klima/landscheidt/iceage.htm
(Landscheidt died in 2004)
Mind, I have also seen predictions that CGC would kick in in 2000 and 2010.... ....Still waiting-
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Well we had some snow - but only enough to leave a slight dusting on cars. But thats the 22 month drought broken!
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Raining in Evesham ...
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latest shower in Evesham started as a potent mix of icy sleet, leaving a sheen of ice on the grass, though turned to mostly rain later. Bodes well for any further showers tonight though.
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If there were any technologically advanced civilisations on Earth during the last ice age, they didn't use any industrial processes ....
The contents of ice cores are a tell tale signal of what we did and when
Whilst it is possible that societies more advanced than simple hunter-gatherers may have existed earlier than we currently have evidence for, living in coastal regions during the ice age that are now underwater, they did not have advanced technology beyond the wheel and the ability to build two story houses out of mudbricks. -
This is standard "Ancient Aliens" stuff - and all depends on how very liberally you translate and interpret ancient stories and ignore more accurate translations, poetic phrase and context.
Worth a read:
http://ancientaliensdebunked.com/references-and-transcripts/vimanas/ -
Although the mean CETs for each month are given to onlt one decimal place, do they actually go further?
I ask because, by my calcs on the given montly mean CETs, the average mean CET for the year would be 10.92c not 10.93c as quoted by the Meto
Don't forget that not every month has the same number of days, so a simple mean will not quite give you the annual CET.
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Just hoping none of those showers produces a single, solitary, half-melted snowflake! Even in Evesham I've never experienced an entirely snowflake-free calendar year before
And I would hate to have to go through it all again .......
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1981 and 2010 - the only years I have experienced snow "deep and crisp and even" on the ground, even if in neither case was there anything fall on the 25th itself. Of the two, 2010 wins by virtue of the clear skies and remaining well below freezing all day.
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Comments like this add nothing to the mode output discussion in here. Interesting to see what Mogreps is showing, What the UKMET think of model output at moment, so Ian Fergie snippets are brilliant for us model watchers.
GFS 18Z rolling...
Sometimes that is the only answer - especially when people can read prior comments and look at the model output themselves.
"is there anything behind closed doors suggesting any widespread snow and is there still a chance of that snow event on Christmas day?"
No. There is not. What more can you say?
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The JMA is decent for cold on tonight's run. Not eye popping but compared to the other volatile output, I would certainly bank that run.
JMA has long been regarded by the pros as a reliable model.
Which does not, of course, mean it is right!
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Can he not join up with Codge and forecast record breaking warmth.
:clapping:That's only in the summer.
In winter we get record breaking cold and record breaking snow instead. Record breaking gales are also mostly in winter but can be forecast in spring and autumn too.
However record breaking floods are forecast all year round.
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As I have often said, this will be the true legacy of the human race - in millions of years time, future geologists will identify the 'anthropocene' not by climate change, not my mass extinctions, but by the layer of microscopic plastic particles to be found in sedimentary rocks all across the planet.
Meanwtime, worth noting that every time you have a fish supper, you are probably also eating a few bits of micro-plastic, previously eaten by a little fish before it was eaten by the cod you just had battered .... -
Do people leave their heating on over night. ? Needs to be about -10c for that for me.
No, only ever done that when it dropped to -16c in 2010
So far, still only had the heating on once. And that was to dry clothes earlier this month.....
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Piers Corbyn, forecaster for WeatherAction, said: “The massive storm heading for Britain will bring blizzard conditions for most parts and damaging gales or storms widely. “This will probably be the most extreme five days of snow blizzards and and gales in Britain and Ireland for 100 years, being more severe than the worst events of December 2010.†The eye of the system, which will pass over the north of Britain on Wednesday, has a pressure of 952mb and will rival the historic storm of 1987 which was driven by a low of 951mb.
Well he is already wrong on that score, The fax chart for 12 today had it at 942mb
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I'm not sure why the Maunder is the only event referenced
Because its the best known and was the coldest period of the LIA and therefore if we experience any solar minimum it will be at least as severe and OMG! The Thames Will Freeze Over And Everyone Will Die!
The reality is that global warming will probably mean even a solar minimum as extreme as the MM would have almost no effect at all ....
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There's plenty of empirical evidence linking the LIA to solar activity
Really? So what happened ~1350AD to cause the LIA?
We know the MM occurred during the LIA, and led to a period of even colder weather. But I am not aware of how solar activity can affect the climate before it has happened?
So far as I am aware, all those predicting a new 'LIA' are actually predicting a new 'MM'. That they ignorantly think they are the same thing just make me wonder what else they are ignorant of!
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I admit I did have the heating on yesterday
But only out of desperation to get some washing dry ..... Still no where near putting on the heating in fact went back to my summer duvet over the weekend as it was too warm at night..may revert to my winter one again soon but heating is a long way off yet.
I have a summer duvet in winter. In summer I just sleep under a duvet cover .....
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Met office having none of it - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-an-arctic-freeze-snowstorms-the-most-severe-winter-in-years-probably-not-says-met-office-after-cold-weather-warnings-9890202.html
So biased towards mild weather
Biased towards reality, you mean
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You make a great newspaper editor. Cherry pick something, then give that as a one line headline as though it is a definite.
In reality, it is the Met Office winter forecast and they are saying there is a greater probability of a milder winter.
It does not necessarily mean a mild winter ahead as you put it.
Not, it is not a winter forecast.
And all it says is that for Dec, Jan and Feb as a whole there is a higher probability that the we will see more warmer than average temps than colder than average temps.
But as you rightly say, that does not mean we cannot have 2 or 3 weeks of very cold weather.
It does mean we are unlikely to see 6 or more weeks of very cold weather, over that 3 month period. Although there are still low probabilities that even this could occur (and when did that last happen?)
Edit: and there is nothing in the contingency planners to suggest a white Christmas is unlikely, any more than there is anythingin it to suggest the 16th and 17th of January will be the warmest on record.
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I suppose working on probabilities with all the relevant info at hand I can see why they've come to such a conclusion, it would be fascinating to see how and what they program into their models.
Edit; obviously the Contingency Planners report is based on more than just their model though
:clapping:
But only out of desperation to get some washing dry .....
The Midlands - Weather Chat
in Regional
Posted
Just a slight dusting again in Evesham this morning (from shower around 6am) - but that is still 2 days of snowfall already this year and at least is looks/feels like winter!
Tues/Weds remains the main period of interest - and we will not know if that is going to heavy snow, sleet, rain or nothing at all for a few more days.