Essan
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Posts posted by Essan
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Shame then they cant feed MOGREPS n GLOSEA9
))) into the models or even them n all the models into one forecast ?? Then we would only have one model to moan at...It's GLOSEA4 and the clue is in the name - a global seasonal model.
But I know what you mean
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I've not recorded an air frost this winter.
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Is it not a prettt decent storm today? Within the 2 day period. Forecasted over 4 weeks ahead. Impressive. I know people dont want to derail thread but the detail of the forecast is to accurate and to frequent to be chance. Give credit where credit is due I say
This shows just how arbitary Piers is with his verification. Predict a storm on a certain date and then pick which storm within a few days either side of that date you want to be the one you predicted. Edit: he did the same with the 28th Oct storm, which I assessed here (bottom of page)Piers did indeed predict a New Year storm. Which we had on New Year's day. This is a different storm altogether! As is Sunday's and as were the storms at the end of December. What Piers did not predict was that there would be storms every 2 or 3 days from mid December through into the first week of January. I wonder why?
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I'm sure I've had some snow free Decembers here - but I've not had a frost free December (records started in 2003) before ..... :o
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Anyone had any rain lately? My gauge says I had 0.5mm end of last month when I was in Scotland, but it's getting on 4 weeks since I recorded anything else or actually saw anything apart from very brief light drizzle fall from the sky.Irony is that I've been told that one of the reasons why the replacing of the bridge in Evesham has gone over time is because of 'bad weather' - when in fact it couldn't possibly have been better!
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If you sued a newspaper every time it published a false or misleading headline you'd need to be a multi-billionaire and we'd need to recruit extra lawyers from Bulgaria and built some new courts to help with the workload ...... :LOL:And the PCC can't do anything because the owners of the Star and Express do not subscribe to the system of self-regulation independently overseen by the PCC, meaning that "the publication does not ..... fall under the Commission’s jurisdiction and, as such, we are unable to take forward your concerns in this matter."
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Lovejoy isn't all that bright but can be found with binoculars (might be naked eye visible if you're far enough away from light pollution) - finally got to see it this morning. My photos show only a faint blur though
It should be visible in the NW in the evening, though is higher in the sky around 6am-
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There's no point in looking for good snow here (south Midlands) unless 1) there is very cold air in situ over Britain, and its been here for days or better still weeks and 2) there is an active Atlantic system coming in from the west against this cold air and 3) there's a good likelihood that the European high pressure system maintaining our cold air is not going to give in ......Or, we have 1) and then a maor channel low pushes up from the south. But that's as likely as winning the lottery 3 times in a week.December 2010 was an exception to this rule.
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Baltic Britain: Up to EIGHT inches of snow this week as Arctic gusts will make parts of the country feel like it's -9C in the wind
It's true. Although it's also true that we had up to eight inches of snow today as well. And, indeed, get up to eight inches every day of the year (except when we get more than eight inches) ....... :lol:
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Not yet.But in Glasgow at the weekend, and as expected every public building was stifflingly hot ......At the Youth Hostel they had the thermostat in the conferance room where we held our meetings set at 28c .......... Quickly turned down to 20c. Presumably they turned it up on the assumption we were all Scots, but in fact most of us were English so we don't die if the temp falls below 25c
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Not an April Fool, but a very clever piece of viral advertising - no coincidence today is 'cyber Monday', the busiest day of the year for online orders .....
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I'm starting to think about it .......:oIt was down to 1c by my bed this morning, and 12.1c downstairs. 12c is usually the threshold ...
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Do you really think we had the abilty to meaure global temps accurately within 0.013c 150 years ago ?.
So temps 150 years ago could well have been a lot lower than we think?
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I suppose the people at the Express think that the film 'The Day After Tomorrow' is a documentory.......
The Express (and Star) are owned by billionaire Richard Desmond, with whom the buck surely stops? But it seems he think it's perfectly to fine (and indeed, a jolly ol' jape) to add to his vast mega-fortune by making money out of scaring and worrying little old ladies ......
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Agreed Gav this is absolutely crazy and hopefully people will realise this week when snow fails to materialise that the newspaper and its sensationalism deserves zero credibility.
No, they'll just ask why the MetO got the forecast wrong yet again!
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Not yet. But I have started putting some clothes on when I get up in the morning! :o
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The Met Office.
Really? The Met Office are using a 17 year period when talking about global temps? News to me .....Still, just as well they arent using a 16 or 18 year period or we wouldn't be having this conversation. Right? And next year ......
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Lol, it's significant in the fact that there's has been no rise in global temp without any cold drivers, what that means down the line is anyone's guess Essan, but one certainly cannot rule out a MM or any other scenario really. Until it's actually occurring it's all conjecture.
But there has been a rise over the past 16 years :PWhen we have a decade that is colder that the previous one, or better, colder than the 1990s, then I'll beleive that warming has stagnated. Meantime, we seem to be getting plenty of warm weather despite low solar activity, negative PDO etc not to say various human drivers which may be causing cooling. Wasn't the last La Nina year warmer than most previous El Nino years? Why that?
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Lol, I seem to remember a prominent scientist stating that snow would be a thing of the past. Just because the starting point is higher it certainly doesn't mean the effects would not be the same or worse even, remember global temps have been static for seventeen years long before any cool drivers came into play, so imagine what effects a grand minimum will have.
Who knows? All that tropical deforestation could well make quite a profound difference to global weather systems under a polonged extreme solar minimum! btw what's the significance of 17 years as opposed to, say, 18 or 16 years? Or, indeed, 30 or 50 years?
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btw it's worth remembering that the MM and DM occurred during the LIA - any similar solar minimum today would, for obvious reasons, not have the same consequences.
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Presumably the very warm bit just happened to be the SE coastal strip where 90% of the activists live.
No. Record high temps have been reported across much of the continent through this past year.And, for example, the recent October record was recorded at a remote town in WA
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-31/fitzroy-crossing-breaks-national-october/5062408?section=wa
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Dunno the temp indoors, but I'm in shorts and t-shirt, the back door is wide open and I'm listening to the rain.Gonna be a long while before the central heating gets a first run out in this house!
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I had a storm here earlier this year in which a ground strike was observed. Which was llike seeing a herd of woolly mammoths in terms of rarity.....Not seen a really good storm since before 1966 though (I'm 47
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Still over 20C in here, so no heating on yet, although I've got the winter layer of the duvet out of the cupboard.
Aye, I have my 4.5 tog duvet on the bed now, although I only need it some nights and then not usually all night long. Roll on the cold nights - I've love snuggling up under a duvet
))) into the models or even them n all the models into one forecast ?? Then we would only have one model to moan at...
It should be visible in the NW in the evening, though is higher in the sky around 6am
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Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
He does however remove any comments unless they are agreeing with him (though I understand one of mine last night lasted about 42 minutes
)