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Everything posted by draztik
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Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
draztik replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
@Summer Sun it’s up to 19.2C as per latest met office update. -
New UK January and Scotland winter temperature record
draztik replied to MattStoke's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Extraordinary! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
draztik replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Sigh. no context. Just a photo? Pls elaborate for new and existing members. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
draztik replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
For Ireland, in particular, these are the setups they can only dream about. West is best and any breakdown is post 14+ days by the looks of it. Great to see it! -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
draztik replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It is the same year in, year out. If this does fail, give it a week or so... and they'll be back for the next great adventure. I ignore the thread for the most part at this time of year. -
The positive SST anomaly around the UK and France .... is this a driver to what we're seeing? And Im wondering if this is why we are seeing these strong & never ending positive heights indicated for autumn & winter 22/23.
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This is what the seasonal ECM is forecasting for Autumn. Sadly, the horror show has a while to run yet if this is anywhere near to panning out as shown. Also, JMA & Met office also showing similar to this. I suppose this is why they have been suggesting this could linger into next year re drought.
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Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread
draztik replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
draztik replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Time and time again, the GFS is routinely binned for showing Synoptics that look ‘suspect’… however, we have all been here before. It’s the golden rule of model viewing.. esp w/ regards to the GFS. Once it picks up a trend, and builds on it with each successive run… you know something is afoot. Hopefully next time when it does this again, it won’t be so unceremoniously binned. However, I won’t hold my breath! -
Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
draztik replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
October looks like being a snoozy month given the NH profile, and the forecast into day 10 at least. Zero to get excited about! Ahh, the days of the seasons actually being seasonal seem to be over! -
model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards
draztik replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The South East fails to notice a positive temp anomaly through the the EC ens mean during its entire run this morning. NI and Scotland fair better, as has been the theme this summer. Days 5-10 2m temp anomaly attached. Days 10-15 similar. -
Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Hover over the persons name, and there is an 'ignore' within that popup. -
model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards
draztik replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
for context this was yesterday’s EC 12z op within its ensemble pack. And yet people were jumping for joy! -
model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards
draztik replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
the op was an outlier last night and today’s output from the EC ( incl. the ens) adds further weight to avoid leading the faithful up the garden path! -
model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards
draztik replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GEFs and EC Ens point to average temps for the UK, through days 7-15. The EC op at day 9/10 is quite the outlier. But as always, why let that spoil a story. -
model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards
draztik replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards
draztik replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Anything to support this? Or just an expectation? -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
draztik replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM would give the UK a rather warm back end, if it’s day 6-10 output can be believed. Caveats apply - esp as the other models incl UKMO disagree (notably at day 5/6) day 9 /euro. -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
draztik replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If a model isn’t showing you what you want to see, it has to be wrong. -
Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter
draztik replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
What information currently exists to indicate notable warmth for February? Please, I’d love you to share the charts. Or is this merely frustration?! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This forum is really not a place for hunches or “I feel it in my bones”. Please stick with the models. Foolhardy chat is best served in the moan thread. -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
draztik replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
the EC mean for the same timeframe tells the op to stop dancing up the garden path! -
Scared? What’s going to happen to you?
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These uppers look exceptional. And because it’s late winter and the model is showing mild, expect upgrades