draztik

Indeed - but the way things are going.... I need to be careful what I wish for here.

Looking doubtful dazzle! Very 2013 like ... so hoping August follows suit and it returns to something more ... normal?

Well!

Mad thread on overdrive this afternoon. Bang on about ‘beautiful’ weather yet spend every second on here posting about it. Usual suspects, of course - so hardly surprising. The misery continues, in more ways than one.

BBC News - Lettuce growers warn of Imminent shortage There is to be a lettuce shortage from the middle to end of next week - due to the high temperatures and current high demand! I expect the Vegan/Vegetarian alliance to call for an early end to this heatwave! We support them!!

Just what I was thinking. And that lasted for some considerable time, if i'm right in thinking...tho, what followed in August wouldnt please many on here.

In GFS, we trust.

based on recent output, that looks set to change.

You say that... but if you're in Surrey... i'd dare say your summers, since 2013 have been decent... and temps of 17C with drizzle are rather rare in your neck of the woods in high summer. So, you're being slightly dramatic. But kudoes on the seeds.

Well said Smartie. Will be doing the same in a few days time - esp the family of squirrels who visit regularly. I hope they are coping.

that last chart Mike posted is rather scary indeed, and what could develop from it, thereafter. This is now turning into a particularly unpleasant situation.

Expect this to expand to more areas. I can’t see any end to this heatwave, with zero signs for anyone seeking cooler weather to grasp, at least in the short term. The ECMWF should retire it’s 46dayer model, as it is an utter embarrassment. Almost the exact reversal is playing out than what it was showing update after update. To those enduring these conditions, it won’t last forever. That’s the only good news I can muster at this stage. I’ll be looking for every opportunity out of hell when I return from my break away.

Indeed - couldn’t disagree with this at all! Dryness, at least for the south, could be notable - rather than heat, IMO.

Its taken seriously when it's showing folk exactly what they want to see.

Follwing on from the recent CFS output which is edging for a below average summer, Japan's ensemble model -JAMSTEC - has had a change of heart in it's latest assessment. June update going for below average/average for the June - August period in the U.K. In contrast to May's update which showed above average. May & June updates from JAMSTEC.

Careful what you wish for. The ukmo temp profile (850’s) look distinctly chilly - with no guarantee it will export what you’re hoping for thereafter.

Its simple, though. Don't reply to my posts & just ignore me. This incessant need to denegrate someone, just because they dont subscribe to your view of what summer should consist of, or how to interpret a particular model. Based on analogues and the views of forecasters I respect, I consider on balance, this summer will not be particularly notable in terms of heat. This is my view. The end. This is a weather forum. This is not life or death. If you dont like a comment someone makes, report it. But nothing I have said has been 'out of line'. You just don't like the view. Thankfully this isnt North Korea.

lol, you people are too much. For one, this is a forum about the weather.... get a grip of your lives. Second, just because you want warm hot summers... if I don't see it, i'll post my thoughts to the contrary.

If only. Don't be getting my hopes up.

Interestingly, the latest CFS ensemble forecast for summer'18 starting to come onboard with the weather company's assessment.

Incorrect. The weather company modelled May well; you are just swinging... Yes. When someone has a different viewpoint, they're on the wind up. Thanks for your contribution. I should say, summer this year will be warm, sunny and delightful - as that would suit you. Too bad, for you, I live in the real world.

It would appear, on balance, the chances of a below average summer are now increasing rapidly! Given the background signals & analogues, it might be that, contrary to recent suggestions, summer 2018 will be notable for the lack of hot spells. I do hope Mr Pennell will be sharing his thoughts for July & August. His input, for me at least, is invaluable.

Interestingly, the weather company/channel is forecasting a wetter and cooler summer than average for the UK and NW Europe, in complete disagreement with accuweather.com this would correspond well, with what summer blizzard suggests above. Weather.com

Yes. but nothing hot being forecast, whatsoever. If anything, we'll see a lot of cloud, as the high is predominantly to our west. Perfect conditions, for those that don't like it too warm. Yr.no, reinforces this, with raw ec data showing temps of 19-23C for London out to day 10. all pretty standard fare.