draztik

as it turns out, the 12z GFS heatwave has gone awol.

GFS 18z will be a very different run, quite apparent early on. *edit, or possibly not lol

im hearing from relatives in Northern Ireland today was exceptional, with temps nearing 25C and not a cloud in the sky - a dose of high summer for that part of the U.K., but all change come Wednesday, nationwide.

This chart is for central England. I'd call this a massive outlier.

No doubt about it. A massive change. And while we want things to go different ways, it makes for interesting model watching.

These are day 10 + from the ops. You can be assured a variation or a complete change on next run.

Lol that's a given!

Always important to note what the UKMO suggests when it's this different at such a short timeframe between the American and the ecm.

I dare say August will be a better month for Scotland and the wider U.K. It was discussed prior to summer, that the latter end may herald the better part of summer this year. The EC monthly for at least first half of August looks promising (if you're looking for settled & pleasantly warm weather) will be interesting to see tomorrow's update regarding this potential.

The GFS parallel has other ideas.

Exactly right! A real mixed bag, as I said earlier.

conaidering how derided the gfs was, it seemed pertinent to point out that even the 'king' was sniffing out the same signal. Note the GFS parallel isn't exactly flattering, again this evening! When the GFS continues to show the same evolution, as it did for about 7 consecutive runs.... the signal must be listening to. For days in the mod thread it was ignored. Hence the need to highlight its ideas. As I've said many times, I don't produce the models. I merely post what they're showing. I've posted the ecm more times than I care to remember over the years. Take emotion out of it, and settle down. The weather will do what the weather does.

He is joking.

Though giving what the ecm is showing, I understand you're quite emotional right now. You're forgiven. I shan't be replying to you again.

Kinda tacky. But I expect nothing less from you. Just a heads up, attacking me won't bring you the heat you crave. Just makes you look intolerant.

Strange. I was saying my gut was telling me what the GFS was showing for days was bang on. And as per tonight's ecm, it seems not a bad call. But yea, everything I say is useless

I see the GEM is being highlighted in the MOD thread, always a sign that the game is up. Looks like a mixed bag to come over the next week or so ... all pretty standard fare. Something for all folk to enjoy, whatever the preference.

of course - but the point is, a few days ago we were headed for an 'epic' period... and today we are scrambling, looking for this 'epic' period..... of course, it changes. The weather can often make fools of us, but the important factor, for me at least, no model is showing hot weather and it's foolhardy to keep propagating that idea with no evidence to back it up. I should say, the models can make fools of us, rather than the weather .... as its always right

as with a lot of the models this summer..... it shall be jam, tomorrow.

ah yes, the GFS to the rescue. GFS, the worlds most loved and despised model - when it suits.

Not seeing either, personally. Just standard fare. oh sorry, the GFS is.... the same model that has been derided for days. Silly me.

which model is showing hot or even very warm? which model is showing a lengthy settled spell?

GEFS support the op, and the GFS control is in there for added weight. (Days 5-10 height anom)

Just post what I see, it's a shame others don't. Ignore me if you don't like what I say, it's quite simple really as for tonight's GFS, it's a similar theme...from previous updates height anomaly days 5-10

folk quick to criticise gfs when it's not showing what they want.