draztik

Or the ECM, is, well, just wrong? GFS, from my knowledge can be wayward at times but usually returns kicking and screaming back towards the ecm.... but not this time. Output after output suggests its happy with the signal established. This afternoons runs will hopefully help us establish if the connection was stable or completely wonky. My gut tells me it has the evolution correct, on this occasion. and let's be fair, the ecm does look rather isolated when compared to not only the GFS. That seems to have been forgotten. UKMO isn't exactly flattering ....

Interestingly, GFS Control, GEFS mean and now even the GFS parallel... go for an unsettled spell which lingers well into wk 2 in stark contrast to the EPS. Makes for fascinating model watching.

Models dealing with tricky evolution at present, in such circumstances det. better placed to work things out - hence why I only glanced at the EPS tonight.

GFS 18Z Control heads the same way.... but sure, its drunk too. Right? ((attached: GFS op 18z 180hr, GFS 18z control 180hr)) As for the GEFS in general, a trend away from settled weather gaining momentum with every new update, with the azores unable to build in.

(18z GFS) .... the wheels coming off the apple cart.... nevermind the falling apples!

- 10C during the evenings? oh, hello!

Sitting in the tree, watching the apple cart this evening.... and a few more apples have fallen overboard. Models not behaving as some might like.

Given how things have gone so far this summer, you'd gladly give a little sunshine to the North, right?

Models, so far, are screaming settled - but not hot/heatwave like. A relief to many! Gefs days 5-10 T2m with a slightly positive anomaly into mid-term.

Interesting. I had a feeling after watching the GFS output - 0z and now 6z, that a few apples starting to fall off the cart. Not sure this 'fine period' is nailed or will be as sustained as some seem to think. Lots of model watching to take in before said period 'arrives'. GFS 6z (temp anom days 8-13), trend setter or rogue agent... time will tell. Tho, a beating to any heatwaves being dreamed about in the other thread.

Ice Man, great to have you here on the boards. You are a breath of fresh air - and remind me of Shedhead, an old member who used to post back in the day!! I hope you stick around, your humour can undoubtedly help us all cope if this 'heatwave' comes about.

Well, it hasn't happened yet... which is why I edited my post. We have been here before, where the models have taken us places that never bear fruit. And looking at the EPS surface t2m, temps aren't exactly 'heatwave' like... certainly not out to day 10. Praying we don't see a repeat of July 2013 - that was a god awful month.

There may be trouble ahead....

semi-related, but is this afternoon's 12z from ECM using the upgraded Cycle 43r3?

Sorry, I did not. Your opinions change so quickly, it' hard to keep up.

Don't hope-cast, and maybe you'll get some draztik crushing (i sense you're feeling a little hard done by)

Yes mushy man, we can always cherry pick - as you like to do with those anomaly charts from NOAA. As memory serves, you recently posted one in MOD thread as evidence of an impending UK warm/dry spell - only to come in the next day *when it changed* to say, "I broke the cardinal rule and allowed my emotions to get in the way". Deary me! and seemingly, here you go again... as for the rest of the model thread, it really is an interesting place in the mornings.... *What do we want? Heat. When do we want it? Now* ... therefore, any slight wobble in the models is seen as a massive downgrade. This happens each and every day! Then when the opposite takes hold, 'heatwave on the way, to the south'..... regardless of where the poster is... *ensuant fanfare* At least there's old faithful... (knocker), who merely posts what he sees, without hope or expectation. And even when he does muse, it's tempered. We could all learn a lesson from this particular poster.

Wimbledon should hope not; ecm 12z (as per weatherbell) showing max temps on Friday 4 July (midday) to be in and around 15C for the London area

These details show raw ECM figures for your area Ice Man... good website overall, Norwegian met.

eh? All looking pretty standard fare to me... and what I said was based on the output on the 27th, which showed strong heights over the UK - something the ECM dropped on future runs (all looking rather westerly based) So nah, what I said came to pass. Enjoy the garden, tho.

ECM leading the gaggle up the garden path in MOD thread..... oh Euro, why must you do this!

In complete contrast to yesterday evening's output from the same model - showing the models are in disarray, Ensembles best guidance - and even those are proving to be somewhat erratic (beyond the usual); nothing guaranteed - yet we are headed back to heatwave conditions...if you listen to some of you.

Temp anomaly, ecm ens, days 6-10... quite the change from earlier this week!