draztik

I have to admit. these charts are exceptionally awful, if you're looking for colder weather. The problem, looking at the ens, there is no fast route out of this zonality that I can see. Of course, a pattern change will emerge. But will it be too late to bring us anything notable!? I think I shall take a break for a week or so. I really do miss my morning walks with the dog when the days would be cold & frosty. it seems like a lifetime ago that those days were in number. Alas.

I wouldn't call this forecast a home run, and obviously many more weeks to go. But certainly, as things stand and as we move into January proper.... this forecast, tho painful, is looking much closer to the mark when compared to others.

@Carlg those are day 16 charts... from the gfs control. That model is merely throwing darts at that timescale. Better sticking with the ecm ensembles post day 10 for guidance.

Stunning ecm ensemble mean! All to play for, and as BA says the op appears to be an outlier.

Looking at the ecm ens mean at days 8-15 (of course, usual caveats apply), I have to say I'm very surprised indeed. Edited by draztik, 4 minutes ago.

Edit: reply attached to wrong post.

I think the most notable charts were from the monthly control! Sending much of Europe into the freezer. Of course at that range..... but notable.

Look out for an update from MattH on twitter regarding the updated EC32. The mean shows the UK and W Europe with a below average temp anom throughout & far from settled into January.

well sure. but when you endure a winter like last year... to be followed with an ensemble mean chart like... for 23rd dec... you can understand why some may be flapping. chances of cold this side / or indeed into new year, look remote. yes, things could change. and yes, baby steps may take us closer to something more prolonged. but if we hear 'patience' one more time, the henhouse may explode. maybe.

temp anom/ days 10-15 ecm control. Merry Christmas.

Baby steps... The ECM EPS 0z & GEFS 6Z both trending towards a -NAO & -AO by 26th Dec, with the control for both models sharply negative, esp GEFS. We will wait and see if this trend can be continued and enhanced.

certainly in place now. oh what a difference a couple of weeks make.

Thoroughly comprehensive forecast I must say - given your success of last year - I dare say many around these parts will be feeling a bit sick, given the propensity for cold lovers to hog this board during winter. Brave!

kind sir!

Any chance you could link me to his suggestions?

day 15 height anom / ec ens... of course, at day 15.... yanno! But interest.

I remember last winter, not too fondly I will add. The ECM would show 'interest' post day 5/6, ... only for it to fail or completely swing to a different solution on the next run. It's the same old.... the usual suspects ramping an ecm, based on nothing more than personal preference and hope. And we will never learn! Its like deja vu. GFS criticised, pulled apart etc. But the Global Forecast System was the model winner last winter. The ECM failed northerly last Dec (if memory serves).... the GFS never got fully onboard, and we saw the EC back down as we got closer and closer to the critical juncture. While the synoptics are different this Nov, I fear we are getting far too ahead of ourselves, as always. temp anom indicates we are along way from any 'meaningful' cold. Usual caveats apply, of course

ecm control days 9-14 / temp anom. the control on the tease this evening.... however, the mean shows the opposite. Warmer than average for the UK & much of Europe into ext outlook...

I'm wondering if we are starting to see a new trend emerging; gfs & Canadian ens giving support to the gfs 6z's unsettled outlook into week 2. Ecm ens appearing isolated somewhat? Hmm, this afternoons runs should give us a better idea one way or the other.

While it would be foolish to ignore the ensembles into week 2, esp the ecm ens which indicate higher than average heights for our region - indeed the core of those heights are centred directly over the UK into days 10-15 - saying all that....the gfs 6z follows the 0z with a more unsettled outlook into week 2 and beyond. One to watch w/ interest.

Clearly the latest GEFS update hasn't read the memo about this being brief, especially for the West!

It has been a while! But the negative anomaly blues are on their way back. Rejoice autumn fans. And fetch that coat and a dust cleaner of some sort. Day 6-11 height anom & temp anom. / Ecm ens Usual caveats apply at this time frame, but the trend is in motion.

I asked to be wakened when September ended; but it appears this may be extended until November by looking at the ecm ens and ec32. I have found this recent spell to be fine on the whole. But thia fine spell may end up being detrimental to the winter imo - if you're looking for cold & snow that is. My feelings of a stormy and mild winter have increased markedly.

To those currently enjoying this extension of summer, the ecm ensembles want to continue and extend the fine weather Ecm ens days 10-15 height anom. To those wanting a more seasonal outlook, best look towards mid October.

JMA seeing a big change on the way for October; with Nov & Dec also looking Atlantic driven with a fired up jet! We live in hope!Unfortunately the ecm monthly doesn't agree. A snapshot into October shows The ecm monthly control indicates a true Indian summer is on the way for periods into October. Both the mean &,control trend unsettled into last third of Sept however, before a return to the scandi ridge is shown.