draztik

turning into a case of 'blink and you'll miss it' ... as you were. ECM 0z days 4.5 -9.5 and 12z days 4-9 **** Wonder what tomorrow will bring.

I am no fan of summer heat, but some warmth would be nice. And yes, the models keep flipping - what has really disappointed me has been the GEFS.... the 6z had temps of 25-28 widely for the South into weekend, now those have been replaced with standard fare and below. The ECM for the weekend is now looking below ave.

when in despair, there's always the GEM.

The ECM Ensembles out to day 15 are quite shocking, if its warmth and settled weather you're after. Trough dominated throughout. This thread is named Summer 2016, unfair, as the outlook is rather autumnal. ECM Monthly has been quite consistent - last few updates have been rather negative in promoting 'summer conditions'; a valued asset for medium term outlook in my opinion.

I bring you good news from the ECM Ens.... Its on its way, and may stay unsettled for a while thereafter. I think NI, and the NW's summer may be about to crash. - tho a few warm days still to go before the atlantic says 'hello, I'm back'

I suppose that would depend where you are... For large parts of England, the ECM shows suppressed temps under leaden skies. For Ireland, N.Ireland in particular, a sunny & warm next 8 days if this model is right. After last summer, the NW rejoices.

Yes, but we're not talking about days 7-10; the UKMO only shows us out to T144. The 12z updates later should enlighten us, a little.

So if one model out of 6 (if you include the ensembles) shows a different outlook it's deemed uncertain? id call it an outlier, at best.

That would depend on which model you're looking at. ECM ensembles trending to something very average into days 8-15; GEFS, on the other hand.... But after seeing the GEFS 12z update the other day showing a sustained high pressure for 2 weeks solid, only to capitulate on the next update, I know where i'll be placing my money.

Thank you Ian for another thoroughly detailed forecast based on your understanding - which, based on previous forecasts, seems pretty sound to say the least! Your knowledge and analysis is very much appreciated. Thanks for sharing.

^^^^ and the latest ECM ENS , along with umpteen of its latest projections, show exactly that. Mr Pennell, on the money, yet again.

Knocker, I am usually in full agreement with you... and what you say is fair. But, this is a day 15/16 chart. And recently we have seen a big shift in the EC suite towards cold... so a day 16 mean chart is of little use. We have to look for trends, as you well know. And the EC is joined with GEFS & GEM to establish a cold theme into Europe in the medium to long term - by all accounts, we will see conditions change markedly to where they have been the last 6 weeks or so. I don't think BA was being unkind, just trying to articulate that the ens are very encouraging for cold... even out to day 15.

the 6-10 day mean EC / 500 & 850 very encouraging, if its cold you're interested in!

temp anom December 2015 to add a little colour to what was a record breaking month!

Fear not, he will be back soon. the garden path is long and winding, didn't you know.

Gefs say no.

This is reminiscent of H. Linda. She rapidly intensified into a 180mph hurricane back in 1997.... tho turned into the open sea and dissipated. But I don't think its of any coincidence that these two intense and rapidly forming hurricanes each came in El Niño fueled environments.

Try telling that to the folk in Northern Ireland & Scotland - while prone to some inclement periods in summer, it has been far from average there. In fact, it has been miserable!

Latest EC32 inline with last umpteen CFS ensemble updates; negative temp anomaly throughout - thats out to August 28th. No doubt Knocker will update in morning.

Pretty much. Heat bottled up across the heart of Europe.

There has been a consistent signal (mostly from CFS ens, tho with support from EC32) that August will be a much drier month than normal, across all parts of the UK - signalling higher pressure ( with a propensity for pressure to be higher to the west of the UK).. but almost exclusively the same charts show a temp anomaly of in and around average, to slightly below - given the forecast placement of the High. We shall see! As for here and now, it's a pretty standard British summer. Warm but not hot in the S. Cool and changeable in the N. precip anom weeks 1 & 2 GEFS / wetter in NW week 1, with a positive anom for most of UK into week 2....

Yep. To my knowledge the CFS model has been forecasting drier than average conditions into August. As per latest update Aug CFS precip anom.

hmm... I dont recall seeing the MO say that in recent updates; They point out that the South, as per usual, will likely see the best of any warm/dry conditions that develop... while the NW sees changeable conditions. And looking at the ext ecm ensembles, the idea that warm and settled conditions will take over looks very suspect indeed.

Good, generally... that is highly dependant on where in the UK you live. If I ask my family on the East and North coast of Northern Ireland, other than last week, they have had a very poor summer indeed.... June was windy, N'westerly flow mostly, and struggling to get average temps day or night... other than the tail-end of June and first couple of days in July, it was poor. Scotland, too. With the models all pointing to standard fare, with a general NW/SE split.. the gloom for NI & Scotland looks set to continue. So for these parts, hardly a glorious and generally good summer predicted and so far achieved. England does not equal = UK. I wish this was understood!

huh? What a comment. Unfortunately, haven't had an opportunity to post any positive anomalies as .... well.... there's been.... none?