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Everything posted by draztik
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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
draztik replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Oh Indeed - but it has support from the EPS 46day... which is showing a pretty limp September, also. But who knows, wishing it away might stop the 'negative' trend. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Those hoping for a stunning Sept, best look away... not the trend you'd want if it's a settled September you want, per latest ensemble update (CFS); -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed, well said. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
draztik replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
draztik replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Bit of an over reaction? What do you want ? 45c? People are dying in Europe. We are seeing standard fare, no more no less. Less grumbling! The weather won't reward a grumbledor! Little in the way of heat on tonight's GFS, 11-16 Aug shows below average temps, which is the story throughout its run. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
draztik replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well there is one thing about you, Frosty - you will continue to look for silver linings and I do hope, for what it's worth, we do see some settled periods into August. Variety is what I look for... unsettled throughout certainly not. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
draztik replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I appreciate you sharing the link the other day, and regularly check these clusters. It does appear the signal for settled into mid term is turning into less favoured option with every update. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
draztik replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If you like a mixed bag, then next week is your week.... Bristol certainly that. As for August, it had been showing promise, but the signal from EPS starting to wane w/ respect to a UK wide settled spell. (tho, the extended period will offer more 'summer like' conditions as opposed to the here and now.) -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
draztik replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM is rather abrupt w/ its latest update; No to any settled weather propagated by MetO. We'll need to start seeing these ' glimmers of hope' pop up on the models soon, otherwise, its another pony ride to eternity. Day 9 on the ecm shows another low heading our way as per below. Day 10 ends unsettled. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
draztik replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Must be rather confident if they are showing that graphic.... given its a week away. So their own internals must be at odds with the other output we can see.... tho there was suggestions of ridging into August - which is still present on GEFS - tho seemingly, that signal is being somewhat diluted. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
draztik replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Given the outlook, we may have to trade Mayfair & Park Lane for that get out of jail card! -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
draztik replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Models seem to be getting worse (if your preference is settled & warm weather); something I didn't think was possible. UKMO headed same way as GFS out to T144. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
draztik replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I made a quick edit... to suggest just that -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
draztik replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Op & EPS singing from the same hymn sheet this evening... into mid-term* days 6-10 & 5-10 height anom. *important to point out, there are signals appearing, days 11-15 from the EPS of a more settled spell being established with a relaxation of the jet, w/ heights building to the NW of UK... tho temps don't look anything special, at this stage at least. Something to keep an eye on. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
draztik replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed; especially considering the outlook from the recent update of the UKMO 12z. -
Jurassic Coast, Dorset Mourne Mountains, Co. Down Bath, Somerset
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What a charming thread to walk into, with amazing photography. Autumn has always been my favourite season, and the above illustrates why.
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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
draztik replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
a rather unsettled and very wet period ahead for the NW (bar mon & tuesday).... if the GFS 6z is on the right track. prec anomaly (23.7-31.7) shows the contrast between the NW and SE. The total prec chart is quite something for Ireland. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
draztik replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is 11 days away.... Summer is always 'around the corner' if you look that far out on any op run. Give me jam, today.... not tomorrow. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
draztik replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Where are you getting this from? Or comparing to what? From what I can see.... temps of around 20-23 in the south, to 17-22 in the north have been propagated for a few days now for next week. and that hasn't tended to change, much. As per metoffice, yr.no, weatherbell. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
draztik replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Height anomaly and temp anom, days 6-10 ECM. Frosty, admire your approach... it shall pay off. And maybe before summer is over -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
draztik replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
draztik replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Was thinking that myself when I saw the graph tho, there was a notable cool off for a period in July... can't remember the dates, but did notice Madrid had temps around 26C for a time. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
draztik replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Temp anomaly for July shows Wales, and places south of Midlands with above average temps... Scotland & NI bucking the trend. June was widely above, bar Scotland.