draztik

temp anomaly for Europe, month to date. quite evidently cooler for the UK, and much of Northern Europe. There are signals that the continent will warm up in July - with the SE & London benefiting being closer to this airmass. However, the CFS ensembles have been pumping out run after run [for at least the last 2 weeks] showing July with a negative temp anom., and while I do not usually put much weight on this model, something has to be said about its consistent signal for a cooler than average July. latest update - July.

hmm... no point looking at days 6-10, when days 0-5 show this... pretty below average if you ask me.

And to think, I was the one accused of spreading pessimism. Majority of folk in here seem to be doing a pretty good job of that without little aid from me. Met Office text forecast somewhat at odds with the big long range models at the moment. ECM Ext. & GEFS now projecting a near average/slightly below temp anom into mid term, with little suggestion of a warm up. days 10 - 15 temp anom 18z GEFS signalling a dry & cool period ahead.

Thats some memory! talking of posts from two years ago, tells me everything! I think its time you let go, it will ensure you're a happier person I promise you. But lets be real! This is a case of folk not liking the reality infront of them. I can't control the weather, you'll be glad to hear - so going after the messenger won't solve your ailment.

Oh, lively in here. Theres a difference between spreading pessimism and keeping it real. It's always amusing to me, when those that post FI heatwaves are never chastised for being overtly optimistic. Gotta love these parts, always a smile.

Looking at the BBC/Met Office projections for London; Friday 24C, Saturday 23C, Sunday 23C Hot? maybe to some. Looks in and around average to slightly above.... the bbc, to my knowledge, has not been suggesting 30C for London, unlike other forecasts I saw. Interestingly, the GFS is neck and neck with the UKMO in the recent verification stats day 6.

Im heading back to Belfast on Thursday for 3 weeks.... basing off your comment, things can only get better. So we live in hope! I was speaking to my sister who lives near Newtownards just moments ago, and she was saying they had a heavy hailstorm earlier.... Weather gods forget tomorrow is June 1. Obviously!

well thats 24 minutes of my life I can't get back... so Gavin is going against the majority of the models and then says 'stay tuned for a sneak peek at where the models lead us into Autumn'... why? If you're going to disregard what the LRM show into the next 3 months, why even consider looking beyond that..... gee whiz!

Of course, and this was what had installed confidence; op & control on same page etc And as you say 'big changes' are now being indicated here is yesterdays 12z temp anom & its 0z counterpart / ecm det. days 6-10 / charts WeatherBell. That is quite the difference - and its ensemble mean, tho not showing such a contrast, has surprisingly backtracked in the space of 12 hours with a notable trend to shunt everything further east. GEFS/GFS has not had to alter its charts much.... rather consistent. A poor display from the ECM the last few days, lets not try and sugarcoat it. And speaking of GFS, the 6z is suggesting Fridays expected heat now appears suspect.... the way the models are moving we will be lucky if we get a day.

What this flags to me, is the mediocrity of the ECM as early as day 6.....which is thoroughly disappointing! as well as its ensembles. GFS picked up the idea that this would not be a spell, and merely a day or two. And its ens really were reluctant to ever back a hot spell... the latest GEFS shows some of us with a neg temp anom into days 0-16..... nothing notable on this update. Underwhelming, given the hype shown by some and the ECM.

eh? when did one day make a summer? or a heatwave? The GFS 6z shows just that... a one day hot event. no spell! far from it. We tend to get carried away, and it continues.... obviously more runs needed, but plumes are always projected in this way, then as time progresses are considerably watered down. The GFS 6z is more inline with its own ensemble mean, while the 0Z and others were complete outliers. Just as the ecm op has been shown to be an outlier. the mean for the chart you flag, keeps reality afloat.

The nationwide heatwave is no more on the gfs 6z, more pleasant and realistic temps now being projected Sunday 7th Comparing with the earlier 0z, this is quite the difference, irrespective of timeframe. 0z Sunday 7

Canadian long range model, not Chinese. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2015050100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=102

skewed? So the Beijing climate model, along with the new Canadian long range model, must also be skewed.... as both showing a similar trend towards a cooler than ave. summer. Always consider reasons when the models don't give us what we are chasing. As for the CFS ensembles you posted, that is now showing all four weeks with a below ave temp anom today...

Great weather as in dry conditions? Possible. Great weather as in warm conditions? Unlikely [im not saying it will be cold, before that is suggested. I'm merely saying flaming June may not have any flame burning wildly] GEFS, ext ecm ens, jma, CFS ens all singing from the same hymn sheet! - negative temp anomaly indicated. GEFS temp anom days 7-12 CFS ens latest June temp anom

Gael, I was just getting ready to post the jma seasonal, but see you beat me to it. Quite the take July and August .... what do you even say. June looks best, tho all three months look to be cooler than average. This ties in with the latest CFS ensemble & met office ensemble forecast for the summer. All in all, a mixed bag on offer.

Temp anom GEFS days 0-16 12z Very little warmth on offer looking at the GFS Ensembles for the foreseeable.

You couldn't make it up! Just when the gfs ditches it's unsettled look for the weekend, the ECMWF puts out T120 Gfs was obviously onto something! Shame for its inconsistency. Also, ecm has made a flip too, surprisingly so given the time frame involved.

the anomaly charts being issued by ecm/ens are quite striking; strong negative anomaly in heights and temp for the UK into the mid term, with no let up post Friday out to 360.., /weatherbell. we knew it was coming, but this will be quite a shock. Of course, it may change. But the ens are resolute in brining about a major pattern change into the weekend. GEFS temp anom out to day 16. In broad agreement with what ecm ens showing.

GEFS at 144 shows an even progressive decline in overall pressure/conditions at same timescale. Can't help but think the UKMO is overdoing it a bit or should that be a lot.

Oh, music to ones ears! Personally, in and around 19/20C in summer is perfect. Beyond and I'm ready for a vacation to Nuuk!

the GFS post day 10 is like throwing darts. Heck, the GFS post day 4 has been woeful recently.

The ext EC ens would suggest otherwise! A consistent signal now from this model, post day 10. High pressure dominating. We shall see.

When folk start posting day 15/16 charts from the GFS to highlight a potential cold spell, you know how grim it truly is.

Excruciating. I am back in Belfast for a fortnight or so. Around where I am, kids are out screaming. Music blaring from a car while the owner washes it, seen a couple out in shorts walking their dog. It's the 8th of February. Tedious and extremely excruciating doesn't cut it! The met office had said dark clouds and temps of 4/5C would greet us. It's the opposite. Clear blue skies and around 11C. Horrid! Looking at the models, ops and ens, I think I need a holiday. From the UK and from model watching.