draztik

Following on from the midnight run, the 6z GFS is a lot more unsettled albeit in FI. With the ens offering little support to such an evolution, it appears mere fantasy at this point.(in saying that, tho, the latest GEFS update does give indications of a more zonal setup in/around 21/22 Sep). And with the transition in seasons now in full swing, I do expect & hope, we see the current pattern broken during the latter stages of Sept. GFS 6z t288 & 348

Height anom. ecm ens days 0-5, 5-10 & 10-15 Groundhog!

Poor ol blighty!

Current model watching is putting me to sleep. Could someone waken me when September ends. To those that enjoy settled and mild, enjoy! But there's only so long this type of nothing can hold my attention.

Yep. Ecm ensembles also indicate a scandi ridge & troughing to our SW. And as you say, this is not too dissimilar to what we saw most of summer. Ecm ens height anom. days 10-15

Exactly! Mod thread benefits greatly from Knocks input!

Now why would you go and do a thing like that? Winter not your season, or? As to the here and now, currently on the east coast of Northern Ireland atm, and I haven't seen the sun in 3 days. HP ain't providing much joy here.

Day 6, msl anom ecm I dare say tonight's ecm won't be fluttering many hearts. Esp for southern England through days 6-10.

A long way off, but gefs trending cooler into second wk of Sept this morning. As for next week, settled and pleasantly warm. Beautiful! GEFS surface temp anom days 8-13

Looking at the ecm ens tonight, this still looks to be transient. 4 or so days before a return to westerlies. Those suggesting a 7-10 day spell of sun are merely hopecasting I'm afraid. The above may be a day 13,chart, so normal caveats apply. But the signal isn't for hp to be in control exerting its goodness. The mjo shows us in phase 3 by this time, adding support of a return to more unsettled Atlantic based conditions.

As anyweather points out, given that the models are being 'tormented' by the track of the little gremlin - models will be jumping about all over the place. Highlighted by yesterdays ecm and this mornings. I mean, the difference is rather shocking. In any case, temps do seem to be on the way up associated w/ lp systems. Tho, tonight we may see HP spreading it's wonders over us. Best get your ticket, it's gonna be bumpy.

Ecm will be leading some folk up the garden path this evening. At least for 12 hours anyway.

This forum is usually the best gauge to highlight a change in weather conditions. It has been very quiet around these parts the last couple of days. The numerical models have all but squeezed the life from any lingering hopes that HP would take hold from in/around 20 August; the upcoming week looks much cooler than of recent times with showers for almost everyone. The following week should see us move back towards average temperatures/slightly below with more unsettled conditions persisting into Sept. By day 14, ECM ensembles indicate slight ridging from the Azores which could potentially settle us down - but that is a long way off at this stage. Days 5-10 height anom/temp anom Days 9-14 height anom/temp anom

He bases a lot of his forecasts on solar activity ; I note when he makes a forecast he rarely backs down. I'm wondering what he will blame for things not going to plan (certainly, at this stage, there is no sign of Temps even nearing 25 in the mid term, let alone 30+). Quite remarkable that he is still in business.

It was looking as though high pressure would take control as early as the 20th august not so long ago; but that has all but faded. Cfs ensembles now indicating unsettled conditions will linger into Sept. Obviously an experimental model, but the swing of late is noticeable.

http://www.exactaweather.com/site/dbd87c9789134d078e6e054bc81a4c2b/default?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.exactaweather.com%2FUK_Long_Range_Forecast.html#2820Scroll down to his august 14 update The section where he says "As we enter the final part of the month (from in or around the 20th onwards) it is likely to become exceptionally warmer and much more settled as we see a return to summer for many parts of the country. High pressure will build northwards across many parts of the country within this period and bring a significant rise in temperatures throughout the latter part of August and into early September."

Anyone disheartened by the forecast currently... fear not, James Madden is still saying the models are wrong; temps 'could climb well in excess of 30C' in the South. His August 14th update also suggests high pressure will dominate and intensify as we head into Sept. Still waiting for the hottest August in 300 yrs to get going. But I'm promised it's on its way, soon, hopefully, maybe....

Ecm ensembles show a moderation in temperature as we head post day 10, but nothing to write home about and no last hurrah as we head into September. In the 5-10 day space, its the trough to our NE dictating our conditions. So well below average, then a return to average. Though, it doesn't look all that settled into days 10-15, with the ens indicating the presence of another trough over the UK. Days 5-10 height anom & temp anom. Days 10-15 height anom & temp anom.

ECM ensembles telling me to get my jacket, may need it for a while. To all those that enjoy cooler fresher conditions, enjoy ECM ens temp anom days 5-10,8-13

Days 5-10 temp anom. Next week looking decidedly chilly, according to the ecm ens.

I really admire your enthusiasm and optimism for August to happen. Unfortunately the UKMO has been woeful as of late, and the GEM's verification stats at day 6 and beyond see it lagging the others. Putting faith in those models, is fine. But realistically, cool and unsettled is well and truly the form horse. I read headlines in late July suggesting hottest August in 300 years. Now look where we are and what is ahead. Egg on a lot of faces. A lot. Verification stats day 6

Just to highlight the stark difference between the GEM Op & the ECM Ens at t168 If the GEM had support from another model, then you may give it a second look. But it has zero support. Binned. Looking to the mid term, and its cool all the way from the ECM Ensembles ECM Height Anom. days 8-13 ECM temp anom. days 2-7, 7-12, 10-15

In terms of appreciable heat, time is fast running out. Only James Madden is continuing to suggest 30C by months end is still on the cards. Those that want to bang the drums of heat based on nothing more than hope - then by all means, enjoy! GEFS temp anom days 0-16 0z

When such charts exist, I'd be happy to follow this up. And this is quite laughable. The majority of folk post hp dominated charts when hp is the form horse. As soon as lp is shown on charts, and is posted, it's scorned upon. You can't win

gefs height anom. days 0-16, temp anom days 4-9 Trough dominated run from the gfs ensembles tonight. With very little for one to add. Summer on hold according to this model.