[Moans, ramps and banter]

Ahh, Monday morning, up for work, clear blue skies after a weekend of wall to wall pea soup! 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 danm That picture certainly speaks volumes for West Wales.. need a shift of the wind to an easterly! Beka, you're lucky you don't live here.. 13 degrees and grey. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Mentioned last Friday that the Met app had me down for a week of cloud... well it wasn't wrong! On the plus side, its warming up and the app has been consistent with the cloud clearing Friday afternoon to leave a sunny cloudless day on Saturday. I'm in work, so not moaning, just pointing out that the app has been very accurate so far. On another point, I see the UKMO and GFS both going for a limpet low again next week! (That part is a moan!)

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 Andy Bown Im also thinking that with it warming up in land and a cold sea that sea mist is being factored into our forecast, winds are going to fall light always a bad combination at this time of year, hopefully pick up a light easterly breeze off the land.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Well, I mentioned the other day about concerns regarding cloud this week and the Mets app. Still, it shows cloud every day for my location, warming up nicely but very limited sun..time will tell wheather the Met over cook cloud in their forecasts or not..!

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 *Stormforce~beka* Spent a small fortune on garden furniture recently, cant remember the last time I was sat in the shed with the spiders in May having a Friday evening beer and smoke

[Moans, ramps and banter]

My location has a white cloud symbol for everyday next week on the Met office App. Ive put a couple other places in the search such as Birmingham and its the same..is this supposed to be a 'cloudy high' next week?

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 Andy Bown Flooding could be an issue for the south west if the radar is anything to go by, especially with the band not due to move direction much today. Pretty awful Spring for W Wales, even on the dry days the wind comes off the sea..havent managed to crack 12 c here yet!

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Bats32 yea, ECM for Sunday, compared to overnight has suddenly found an Atlantic low

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 SunnyG ...maybe not! Tonights UKMO hinting at a switch towards a less settled weekend .. GFS ridiculed for being on its own this morning.. two options on the table at the moment..brave person to call this.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Just like to the 10 days before Easter the models were in full agreement of a deep Atlantic low just to the west of the UK, now we have solid agreement of an Atlantic high setting up to the west, and maybe shifting east to sit over the UK. Nothing particularly warm in sight at the moment  but definately an end to the constant deluge is now pretty much guarenteed...Thank God!

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Dont know why, but in my mind this UKMO 144 chart seems to sum up the last 4 months, Atlantic low to our west held firmly in place via a chocolate fireguard high to the north west whilst Scandinavia and particularly Finland continues to freeze.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Overnight Faxes firming up on the better days for the extended weekend being Saturday (away from the north west) and Sunday. Light winds from a southerly quarter with just a scattering of showers, subtle changes in wind direction hopefully resulting in us all having 1 dry and sunny day.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Fax 120 indicating that although low pressure to the west will be domiant this weekend its by no means a total washout. Saturday looking fairly warm in a light southerly with sunshine and showers. Probably some downpours, particularly south west but at least not wall to wall rain and probably feeling quite nice if you are sheltered.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The 300 hrs chart that was posted and ridiculed is now at 120 and is as close to identical as you can get. Goes to show, when the signal is strong enough the gfs is quite capable of picking up thenpattern over 10 days away, just need to look for consistancy over run to run and seperate a trend from a rogue run. Anyway, UKMO 120.. Atlantic low boxed in over the UK, as posted above its then a case of watching it fill...slowly.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 damianslaw The worrying thing for those who, like me were hoping to get outdoors more over the easter weekend is just how consistant the models have been in the dropping of the lobe of PV down next week. Must be a very strong signal so even though we're still over the 168hr mark until easter we are only 5 days away from the deep Atlantic trough so I really cant see any chance of a major change now.

 Bats32 Hopefully its performance is the same as throughout winter!

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Ukmo with a cluster of lows swarming around the UK for mid next week...excellent agreement for such a timeframe, although I doubt there is anyone out there wanting this you have to admit  gfs been showing this outcome for the run up to easter consistantly for days now baring last nights blip. The low does look like it will start to fill a little by the time we get to the weekend but staying cool and unsettled. It might be 7 to 10 days away but unfortunately  ill be amazed if all models switch to something settled and warm.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 stodge ecm going for the same scenario gfs was showing yesterday, and indeed what ukmo 168 shows tonight with a deep low dominating in the run up to the holiday weekend. Gfs 12z as you say on its own tonight. The Mets video posted above alse pretty identical, maybe with the trough a bit further out west but with all that high lattitude blocking to the west and east around its not shifting away quickly.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 ANYWEATHER totally agree when someone posts a rogue BFTE when the last 15 runs have all being mild but, I say again, the discussion you seem to have taken exception to was a trend of an overall pattern which has been a regular theme over the last few days, agree, detail will change but the overall pattern being shown does match the Mets forecast.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 ANYWEATHER Who has written off Easter?  The discussion is the constant there of an Atlantic trough to the west in the build up to the weekend as shown by the models and being discussed in the model thread. This forum would be pretty boring if we could only discuss model output for 1 day ahead!

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Bats32  At the timeframe we are looking at you would expect some wild variations thrown up by the ops but like you say GFS been pretty unrelenting in the Atlantic trough dominating Easter weekend. 00z mean below a carbon copy of yesterdays ECM I posted.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

ECM backing the trend of an Atlantic trough in the run up to Easter..cant see anything out there that hints of a warm dry easter weekend, still time for a change but the trend isnt wonderful.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 ANYWEATHER I was aware of that, my point being, was, no matter how far ahead, what a ridiculous chart. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

GFS 0z officially loosing the plot by serving us this Easter hurricane! That said, we need a flip soon because it has been consistant with a very unsettled end of March.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Does the stratosphere get more focus and attention then it deserves? It's fascinating and there is some good science behind it but it's renewed focus in recent years is likely due to the BFTE and the succession of poor winters that have preceded and followed it.

 

Good question with the answer probably yes! I think most, like myself struggle with teleconnections so the good old SSW = Freeze is a nice simplistic correlation. The Met give it more attention than other drivers so we the public do likewise. I would say on average its the best signal we have when things are about to change and even that seems to be backfiring this year as they have struggled to effect the troposphere in a noticeable way.