KTtom
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Posts posted by KTtom
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daz_4 indeed, you are looking at nearer -10 uppers required from a northerly that late in Feb / early March for lowland lying snow.
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Ill settle for the ECM 216 please...
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Ali1977 unfortunately Ali, due to CC I think these days we would need the Synoptic pattern mid Feb to deliver what BFTE devivered late Feb 6 years ago, and no model is hinting this type of pattern change yet.
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Lukesluckybunch yes, anyone who sees any sort of potential in the overnight runs clearly has their device upside down!
Maybe a crumb in the ens for end of the month but we know how fickle these are..
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Alderc 2.0 Didnt that happen Jan 29th, well 19.9 rounded up
?
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Nick F Thats a shame, I find this thread truly fascinating in that we can have a good old fashioned debate without it occurring on the MOD thread with various posts going AWOL.
FWIW im sure the members are 50/50 split on this, personally im in your court. 1 thing is for sure, no matter what your knowledge on x, y and z. It hasnt helped anyone in forecasting our weather over the last year or so..March 2023, August 2023 and this winter are ones that jump at me.
No issues with how strongly people feel about whatever tools you use, but again agree with Nick, some need to work on how they come accross.
Need a similar thread next year.. hopefully not a post mortem one tho.
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Maybe a little consistancy showing for the last week or so of Feb with a UK high. Some much sought after sunshine on the cards. After that, as we've seen in Jan, always a chance this will migrate north west..will it happen in time for one last cold snap??
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Penguin16 It is getting a bit uncomfortable to read now, if 'coldies' were a dog there is no way they would still be allowed to suffer this long
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Overnight ops sobering us up after last nights party as usual. Pretty bog standard late winter / early spring set up as the winter vortex breaks up yet the UK still manages to remain in a south westerly courtesy of the high to the south west.
The 'UK low' really has been a killer in terms of Feb, after hanging around the UK for an eternity, it then trundles off to Norway to prevent a nice little barrier to the arctic high trying to head in our direction!
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andy989 Just seen that on the news. No-one said it was going to be easy to forecast but a very poor effort by the Met from what I can see particularly for north Wales. If there was uncertainty it should have stayed as a yellow warning. From what the NW radar shows its pretty much a Pennines event only as far as England is concerned.
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Lukesluckybunch As many said last night, there isnt any cold to the east to tap into if we did get an easterly unfortunately..cold uppers can quickly form under high pressure over the continent in mid winter but not in March..2018 was an exceptional event. Not getting the excitement over a SSW late Feb unless you follow the strat avidly like Febblizzard ...im finding UKMO day 7 chart strangely appealing with a southerly flow and hopefully some sunshine... Certainly for my location, spring is rolling in..
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ANYWEATHER The odd one for me is the excitement over a potential SSW being modelled for the last week of Febuary...2018 was an exception and not the rule, traditionally the continent has no cold pool left by March.
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On the face of it not a bad 216 chart. Hard to see where the colder uppers are comming from though..even if this comes off as shown we're a fair way away from the uppers we need for somthing interesting as we head into the second half of Feb.
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East Lancs Rain lol, indeed. This photo is from my Finland trip last week, winter tyres and everyone driving around without a care in the world..
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RJBingham sounds like the last cold spell, had 1 frost and a snow shower (which actually caused chaos) in my location.
I note some who ramped up that spell have gone AWOL since
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Just read the Mets forecast after seeing it mentioned a few times here...maybe the ECM day 10 (yes i know) is something akin to what they expect? Certainly nothing else even close on show to matching their text although a long way from a 'northerly'.
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SLEETY or 10 months
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Nothing scientific about this, but taking the 'big 3' as an example, if you get to t120 and one of them shows the milder route, in the UK then you can bet its nearer the truth than not..gfs was labelled a joke and not following 1 single ecm perb this morning...we await ecm to see it it holds firm...think I know what most are thinking.
To get some abnormal weather events here in winter we need 3/3 agreement by day 4. Was it not @Tilly getting a hard time backing gfs this morning...things may change but its hard to see anything noteworthy for south of Manchester.
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Not really seeing too much that differs from the Mets outlook to be honest, snow for northern hills as fronts associated with next weeks low push north, then some back edge snow possible anywhere as the system moves away leaving a weak northerly with snow showers around northern coasts before high pressure takes over, nothing too out the ordinary for late winter?
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Fax chart at 120 a nice visual illustration not just for UK but Europe regarding the boundary between mild and cold...im in Northern Finland as I type and its just turned very cold after a reletively 'mild' start to the week (0 to -2 now -12)
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@Lukesluckybunch yes, at first glance it looks pretty good at 192, then your eyes are drawn to the massive heights to our south and the conveyorbelt of lows moving west to east in the Atlantic over the top of the high preventing any ridging. Still, building blocks in a better position for 1 last chance of something a bit more interesting later in the month.
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Im finding it gets earlier every year. Probably mid Feb for me...cold is no use in west Wales after this it wont give anything here apart from maintaining the oil useage.
Im already desperately looking foreward to some lighter evenings.
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Big differences between the 'big 3' at just 144, at 168 they are worlds apart in relation of what they want to do with the PV. Ukmo introduces a wedge to split it, gfs remains consistent in shifting it to Scandi, ecm splits the difference and leaves NW europe with a south westerly express! Some sort of pattern change as Feb kicks off, hopefully GFS is barking up the right tree!
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They do, however the odd fatality does tend to make the news headlines when it comes to storms however im sure many more people die during extreme cold spells which we never hear about.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
RJBingham its an outlier