KTtom
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Posts posted by KTtom
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ECM at 144...cold uppers still a long way off the UK.
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Still plenty of scatter for the period 15th to 18th ....op lurching from one of the mildest, then coldest then back to milder. It has been the same for the last few runs..still on a knife edge as to whether cold makes it back to southern areas mid month. North is almost a dead cert.
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9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Exeter = GEM mean.
Plus the text is the same as yesterday, so as of now they probably think there isnt enough of a strong signal to change...having said that I havent really seen any output with encroachment from the south in reation to widespread snow. Agree with Crewe earlier tho, we are looking at a 3 to 4 day window.
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Nick F mentioned this yesterday. One of the key players here is the Azores low. It needs to track south of the UK to prop up the high..ecm has it too far west.
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Just now, Harsh Climate said:
Apart from the fact Spain is colder than the UK
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3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
It’s not a good look though… kicking a man when there down…
I guess its the way people come accross in their posts, there have been a couple who have been quite arrogant to anyone questioning the model output post day 10, in the world we live in they must live by the sword and expect a bit of 'come back' if they have got it wrong.
Talking of which, this is by no means over, as mentioned above, experiance also tells us that when were talking about such timeframes models often have a little wobble only to revert back to what they were showing previously. Back end of the weekend before mid month becomes any clearer.
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9 minutes ago, Malarky said:
How are the 0z means looking?
Gfs day 10.. Its probably the 850 mean which is most revealing -5 uppers ony as far south as northern England.
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1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:
Wow the blocking is really starting to downgrade to the NW . Be afraid be very afraid . Do not like the trend on the last few runs . Even the means are getting weaker . Let’s hope this is just a wobble .
Yes, last 2 gfs runs are trending in the wrong diection...2 things evident in relation to the 'main event' is its still over 10 days away and longjevity is decreasing run by run. Wonder if early next week will end up being the main event!
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As others have said, great model agreement, colder yes, initially mainly dry, that takes us to mid month. The next thing im looking for is the extended forecast to be updated by the Met. Its been the same for the last few days with that annoying sentance about severe cold being deemed low. Surely the update will be rewritten tomorrow as the start date is currently 19th.
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1 minute ago, TSNWK said:
Could they collide over us.. blow up as such drag in mild
Eddited my post to include day 10... a bit of a mess as both lows head for a collision right over the UK!
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1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
I’m just hoping we get the cold Arctic air in place as it may not reach all areas at this rate!!
Yea, that is the risk. Its would be a race against time as to which gets to the UK first..at least it wouldnt be boring.
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It was mentioned by a poster last night but didnt really get much of attention but the Atlantic lows to the south west are slowly beginning to be modeled with more and more influence day by day. In my opinion,this is good news, given we get the cold in place then we may see some good snowfall somewhere as opposed to days on days of dry frosty weather we had pre christmas and on occassions last year...
Gfs day 12...
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Hmm, is ECM already starting to show potential obstacles to the clean transition? Awaits the words 'delay'
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5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
I'd say a cold North Easterly from a central Greenland high, near normal temperatures from a west based Greenland high & mild from a Mediterranean high are equally likely options at present.
My post regarding the threat from the SW was relating to low pressure moving in before the effects of a GH take hold.
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19 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:
The background signals/ telleconections, essembles, most models plus met office who have access to £100,000,000 odd super computer all point to this Kasim. It is more than likely to happen now even at such range.
Isnt it funny how the met get lambasted when they are not on board for being behind the times yet lorded when they back cold? Even they are strongly hinting at dry and cold.
Regarding telleconnections etc, mid July there was rock solid support for a very warm dry August... couldnt have been further off the mark. So, anyone feeling pensive over something 2 weeks away has every reason.
Personal opinion, Greenland high mid month is likely but watch south west, I have a feeling it wont be as 'clean' as some might think come 144.
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2 minutes ago, RJBingham said:
Upcoming awesome freeze. might even get a frost
You gitt! You have a sleet shower on Sunday! It does make me smile, the 'main event' they are chasing now in the other thread has moved out another 2 weeks...watch the Azores Low move in nearer the time to scupper things.
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49 minutes ago, Shaunado said:
Noticed something interesting on the ensembles today... Happy New Year!
See what you have done there, getting cold and snow here is like skiing uphill backwards..Happy New Year...
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Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
continents north of 30deg in the freezer…..except the UKBFTP
That really is a classic chart to illustrate the issues we have with our location.
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Seems fairly consistant to me, dry, cold and frosty with any incursions (deemed unlikely) from a western quadrant as opposed to east..those who like cold and frosty will be delighted, those wanting deep snow left waiting.
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High pressure dominance seems to be the way foreward through Jan. Cold and frosty hopefully and not cold and dreery. I think it shown what a low bar has been set over the last few years that a UK high is seen as a possitive for mid winter where in years gone by it would be seen as a waste of valuable winter time. I wonder if the snow loving Greeks view a UK high the way we see a Greenland high...always delivers..
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Been here so many times over the last 20 odd years of model watching during the winter months...ridge, mid Atlantic, moves over the UK, giving a glancing easterly flow to the south east with some wintry showers. Meanders around the UK before being drawn north west to the Iceland / Greenland region. I see nothing to say this will be any different. Hate to say it, but a bit of patience needed. Colder, dryer and frosty from week 2, snow more likely weeks 3 and 4 Jan. Thats my take for what its worth.
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42 minutes ago, TillyS said:
Ah fair enough. I only ever look at 3 models: UKMO, GFS, and ECM. I never look at GEM as it’s too unreliable and wayward imho.
Was it you who dissed GEM a few weeks ago? Perhaps someone else. Their point iirc was that it is much less data driven than the big three, more human-guided. No idea if that’s really true but I don’t use it.
Same here, stick to the big 3 if you want a fair assessment, if you look hard enough you will always find what you want to see with all the models out there. The others are only any real use to highlight how poor the pattern is, its the only time they get mentioned!.. I'm awaiting someone to post a chart from JMA!
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I think 
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by KTtom
The most overused phrase on the forum... Great ECM day 10 chart
thats now pushed out to the 17th. Uppers still not paticularly cold in the south..snow risk increasing further north.