[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

Topped out at 66 mph here on the western coast. Nothing exceptional for my location.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

4 hours ago, Methuselah said:

I haven't lost faith in the background signals, per se @Penguin16, but the usual rampers do sometimes get on my nerves. 

100% agree. There is absolutely no doubt telecommunications drive our weather..its obvious. The problem is finding someone who can put all the data into a credible forecast for the UK...currently we are still searching. As a poster said earlier, when things go wrong the get out clause from those who claim to know about these things  is we are a tiny island in the grand scope of things, so why dont the 'usual rampers' factor this issue in before going overboard in the 1st place ?

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

12 hours ago, Frosty. said:

 

I think it was Singularity (pro) who said yesterday to take Scandi highs with a large dose of sceptism in extended model forecasts. He/she appears to be correct, just as we head todards the T -7days the gfs is having none of it, infact starts to transfer a segment of PV to our north east around the day 10 period. Much like the Greenland high this week, it looked all to 'clean' at distance and then models pick up issues with the idea as we gen within day 10...hence the reason for asking about resolution last week.

Anyway...better post a model chart...gfs day 10

Edit: Sorry Frosty, no idea why you are in my post

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Lets hope EC continues with its reputation for day 10 charts, because this mornings is a shocker if its cold we're after..its not just our location look at the uppers to the east and north east

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This spell probably struggling top 25, just about top 50 in my life.

It certainly wont be something we'll be discussing this time next year i think the myth 'surprise features always crop up' can be put to bed now!..put it this way, i think next week will be far more memorable for a large swaythe of the country if for the wrong reasons..and no one forecst whats being modelled a couple weeks ago. 

Some sort of ridge forming to the north east is pretty likely for the following week pretty unanamous agreement, however the modelling of detail makes a massive difference in likely temperature, especially in Kuusamo where im going..the 18z and 00z gfs ops have a 20 c difference for 1st Feb with similar synoptics. Also worth remembering how there was good agreement for a substantial Greenland block until it came within t-144 for this week.

Bit surprised with the GEM comment, looks like its just getting interesting to me

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

The problem with height rises to the east is if they dont migrate far enough north, with a section of deep vortex stationed over Greenland we often get stuck in no mans land with mild southerlies as per ECM.

On a more seasonal note, woke to a decent snow shower here in W Wales which has left a dusting.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

6 minutes ago, tom_f123 said:

Yeah I’m just throwing my toys out the pram in fairness, as we’ve not had 1 significant frost or 1 flake of snow. I’m sure those in parts of the NW and northern Scotland don’t think it’s been a joke 

Same here up to now not even a frost just rain showers.. just looking at the radar and the snow showers are finally beginning to show up in the Irish sea which should get blown onto the coasts in the west as winds swing more north westerly in the morning.  West Wales and the south west could see some lying snow tomorrow morning courtesy of the 'Dangler'

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Not saying it wont happen in Feb, Met certainly hinting along the lines, however I think gfs got a little over excited this evening and may be a tad progressive with the idea....just beat me IDO

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Again, if you look at the Net Weather Radar and click on 'weather type' you can see the snow is pretty much reserved for Scotland, not sure how accurate this is, but it got spot on here where we have had sleet showers at best..hardly a remarkable cold spell.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Just woken to a nice covering of....water! Yes its been raining again!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

4 hours ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

We’re at real risk of an atmospheric river setting up. The output is getting closer and closer to it.

 

Big flooding problems possible if it does set up

Yes the long fetch southwesterlies are notorious for rain 'streamers' the north west, especially Cumbria often sees flooding from these set ups.

Longer term as the month turns, something dryer on the cards as pressure builds from the south...could feel quite S*****like!  

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 hour ago, EML Network said:

Why isn't anyone talking about this >> ??









If it comes to pass as modelled, this country will be on it's knee's !

Sods law, when you want a low to track further south into France, it'll stay put! Shows 90 + for my location

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

The other startling observation looking through this mornings models is how quick a south westerly flow can blow away the cold over Scandinavia... Ive a vested interest in Kuusamo weather in Finland, its been hovering about -20 since before xmas.. a 20 c rise expected in a weeks time.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

As mentioned above, UKMO slaps a nasty storm smack over the UK next weekend! Damaging winds in the south IF it were to verify like this..the other thing that jumps out at you with this chart is just how flat the pattern is..

[Moans, ramps and banter]

32 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

I genuinely wonder just how all the models got it so wrong? Info, observations etc fed in, output generated on basis of said info and yet, utterly, hopelessly wrong. Even forecasts a couple days out seldom right. I still don’t understand the faith in them, at all. 

To be fair, if you looked at the models in isolation without the verbal commentry on the forum then Im not so sure too much has changed. GFS has brought the end of the snap/spell foreward but never had it long lasting from what I can remember. Met got it surprisingly wrong but must have been confident to stick their necks out.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

UK with its very own + 10 isotherm..

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Just now, johncam said:

I can remember 62/63 that's hiw old I am 

You win !

[Moans, ramps and banter]

46 minutes ago, johncam said:

Feel for all you younger guys and gals , at least I have seen some great winters up here, a few frosts and a couple of centimetres of snow is a win now.Can't see it getting any better in the future. Changing times and not for the better.

Hmm, cant believe Im that much younger than you.. I have fond memories of '82 here, that certainly wont be repeated in my lifetime...on the plus side, I appear to have a yellow warning for snow on Wednesday night.. might get a passing shower

[Moans, ramps and banter]

18 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yeah this looked the case a few days ago aswell was clear to see the direction of travel.

In my years as an amateur and otherwise, I have never seen such promise result in so little for the majority of the UK.

I'm throwing in the big snow towel.

Apologies for the moaning post models but I think we all feel the same.

Onto the next chase. 

I think the dissapointment is how quickly the whole pattern falls apart just as it looks to get intersting. Day 10 charts from the mid term models are really poor and will see out Jan if they verify. Too much ramping getting folks hopes up. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Don’t see where any surprises are meant to come from. Flow isn’t strong nor established enough. Winds very slack in the ‘dead zone’ to the N of that LP skirting to the S.

If you’re in the Midlands, for example, any snow chances look isolated.

Agree, these 'surprises' are usually when you get a cold flow established , next week we go WNW to N and then NW in 48 hrs.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

34 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

The noise is still there in the 12z ens for something colder. Again not convinced this milder spell has guts.

Unfortunately history tells us it will probably have far more guts than this cold spell.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

20 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Deja vu, I might come on here once a week to see the snow / bitter cold collapse yet again to save my continuing disappointment  in the models as it  always is

Even the so called 'northerly' is getting watered down run by run! It'll be a bloody southerly at this rate by the time we get to Wednesday!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

42 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Pretty remarkable collapse this morning - all the models so far reduce the cold spell to a 2/3 day toppler then the raging westerlies and flooding are back. Pathetic  

 

Just thinking as I was running through the mocels..this has to go down as one of the biggest wild goose chases ever...what feels like an eternity for a brief powder puff northerly which a few years ago wouldnt have raised eyebrows let alone talked up  for 3 weeks previous. You expect some to over egg it in here but cant remember the met getting something so wrong in their extended forecast (obviously things can still change in that part).This time next week solid agreement of gales and rain..I bet the longjevity of that is well forecast!... onto Feb...

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:

The northerly has not disappeared completely?many snow showers for the favoured spots as it always is with northerlies 

For our location we could do with a bit of a more robust northerly to set up a good old Pembrokeshire Dangler, then a slight westerly tilt of north from the flow and bingo! The second part looks odds on, just as case if the northerly is sustained enough to get the dangler formed...

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

So, despite favourable EAMTs, MTs, GWO orbits, MJOs and a weak PV, the long awaited cold spell is now a cold snap with snow pretty much only in Scotland and favourable high ground in the North West.

Here's hoping February delivers.

Goes to say, plenty of knowledge here in relation to the weather and background signals... forecasting for the UK is a different ball game..