KTtom
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Posts posted by KTtom
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Sherry indeed, in fact post SSW the pattern looks very familiar if UKMO has got it right...south westerlies and euro high.
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feb1991blizzard not sure it proves its still possible to get ice days and blizzards or just that its still possible for a rogue ens member to thow in a big outlier...anyway...just getting a feeling the flicking of a switch is about to occur as we move out of the wet season into the dry season..get the car washed whilst you can
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Looking at the ecm 850's for later in the run and you can see why some think a straight northerly is better if you want a final taste of winter (or a first taste in some cases) as you head into Spring.
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northwestsnow yea, sadly not unusual as the PV weakens in spring. Even with that chart the air source over the UK is circulating round the low and now a direct easterly. A look at the ens, a few still living the dream, including the op, but the vast majority following the average line and creeping into possitive values. As Met4cast said yesterday, unlikely to see anything particular cold or warm over the next 2 weeks.
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Met4Cast ill go more basic than that, its currently 2nd March, certainly no signs of any BFTE for the next 7 days. That takes us to 2nd week of March. Continent warms up rapidly at this time of year with any cold uppers retreating north, sun is stronger, obviously whack CC into the equation and anyone hoping for bitter cold and snow before next winter are going to be dissapointed.
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The models having a final laugh at those of the cold persuasion now. The synoptics which had put the forum in hysteria mode now cropping up, before the SSW! A common theme these last few springs...talking of which, today is the first day of spring and we have big fat flakes of snow falling
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Ali1977 Although T-0hrs is not yet upon us, indications are once again that those charts are utterly useless. Even the hilliest parts of Wales only have a rain warning out. Modelling falling snow and snow depth charts really have a long way to go they have been diabolical these last few years, constantly over exaggerating wintry precipitation .
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Very nice gfs mean for middle of next week with what could be a warmish, dry spell, just hope it lasts until the following weekend. The opposite of what we look for in winter..an Atlantic trough Scandi high combo = southerly
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My personal feelings was that this SSW was far too late to help the UK into a wintry spell, but boy, I do hope it knocks us out of the diabolical pattern we seem to be stuck in..GFS for next weekend dominated by yet another UK limpet low with knowhere to go!
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Well if the day 10 snow charts that have been posted had verified we would all be fed up of the stuff by now! Hopefully, models are a bit more accurate with predicting high pressure...GFS Op hinting we may be able to dry off soon...
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RJBingham Totally agree, as a golfer, its hard to believe in 15 weeks time the course will be parched where its currently a mass of puddles..our weather seems to be becoming more defined with less variety.. here its dry and warm April to July with vertually 0 rain, then deluge for the next 8 months!
Anyway, ECM sums it up nicely for the start of spring ..as we were, Azores and Ruski high, trough over UK with no-where to go!
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RJBingham Im afraid Im seeing little to get my hopes up of any change in the next 2 weeks either to cold or more importantly dry, PV looks as organised as it can be for start of spring...strong Azores high = westerly and unsettled conditions being the predominant pattern.
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Question... just reading the latest off topic posts in the Mod thread, why is someone who doesnt insist we are going into the freezer a 'Troll' ??
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raz.org.rain unfortunately the garden path has now come up against a brick wall...Spring! Some still thinking of March in the 80's etc...my personal opinion is there is no chance of low level snow for England and Wales in March these days let alone the back end.
Edit: Just realised this is the wrong thread
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Just twigged with the subtle change of slightly higher chances of an easterly, then they changed the word easterly to westerly yesterday as if to sweep it in under the radar without anyone noticing... embarrassing!
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Methuselah
To fair ive been tempted to paint the outside of my house xmas day for the last 10 years!
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I normally go from winter preference to summer around mid March, this year Ive totally given up on Winter already. Given my location, I have to accept mid Feb is mid March in the 00's. Just want some sun now, not fussed about temperature for the next month or so. My lawn is ridiculous for Mid Feb, 1stly its too wet to cut and secondly I would be just too embarrassed doing it this time of year..it i had a quiet mower I would do it at midnight!
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Johnp yes, checked out the 850' s when I saw that chart...shocked just how far the -5 isotherm is away from the UK ! Colours at 500hpa misleading .
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johncam Just been down the garden for a smoke and there was one of those fat bodied spiders you get in autumn making a web on a bush...obviously survived the winter!
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northwestsnow Having seen some of Norway from the sky, I would think Dennis has done very well this winter..ideal pattern,Atlantic low after low crashing into Norway whilst entrenched in the Scandinavian cold..like Finland I would say Norway has had copious amounts of snow this winter.
Back to our miserable back yard...just give us some sunshine! Please!
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feb1991blizzard using that anology, how would you describe tonights ECM
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Cloud 10 Not such an intense low modelled overnight but still the theme of dropping a lobe of vortex down over the UK. It looks quite impressive when viewing the H500 charts in terms of cold potential, however when viewing 850 chart the lows are just pumping warm air up into europe and Scandinavia with the deep cold retreating back to the arctic.
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I do agree with all signs pointing to a colder (won't take much) spell during the last week of February. Currently, northern coasts and hills should see some snow. Is it worth getting excited about?, going by the trend over the last couple of years, absolutely not. We are still looking 300 odd hours away, baring in mind how other cold spells this year have dwindled away as they got within the reliable, plus taking into account we are a stones throw from Spring, you can certainly understand people scepticism, doesn't mean they are winding people up! Some people on here have been seeing snow potential since September, some have never seen it.. the latter have been more accurate.
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RJBingham its an outlier
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
06z ens also flipping around wildly from mid month. Operational goes from the warmest member to the coldext in 48hrs! General consensus is a mild and wet week to 10 days especially in the west then just maybe one of those classical switches from warm to cold we used to get in Spring.