[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

So, despite favourable EAMTs, MTs, GWO orbits, MJOs and a weak PV, the long awaited cold spell is now a cold snap with snow pretty much only in Scotland and favourable high ground in the North West.

Here's hoping February delivers.

Goes to say, plenty of knowledge here in relation to the weather and background signals... forecasting for the UK is a different ball game..

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, mbrothers said:

It’s changed on every run so I’m not sure how people can be so sure it’s suddenly nailed it.

Its the trend..south, south and then south. Previously it was Midlands..etc.

A chance of some front edge snow next weekend if we can get enough of a wedge to preceed it to get a favourable tilt, otherwise, Im with Tim B. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

4 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

Awesome charts this morning with the depth of cold upgrading big time!! Ice days and widespread snow now becoming more and more likely!! Fair play to Met Office again! Widespread disruption likely by as early as Tuesday!!

Not sure if this is sarcasm? Apologies if not but can you back that up with some charts.. Maybe, the far south and far north but I'm missing this widespread snow...once again looks like a soft breakdown end of next week going by the longer term models (gfs & ECM)

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yep totally run of the mill January weather..

5 days of temps struggling to get above zero and 5 nights of -3 /-6 

UKMO looks cold throughout

I'd be extatic with that forecast! 5 and 6 degrees here with a rain shower Friday

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

9 minutes ago, TillyS said:

Morning. Agreed.

UKMO are backing away too which isn’t a good sign.

A chilly week ahead but at the moment little in the way of snow down south before milder air pushes back in next weekend. The second half of the GFS has the Atlantic in full resurgence.

All eyes on the ECM.

Still time for things to change, especially with the track of the midweek low, currently shown to be heading into France.

It doesn’t.

Its not wonderful by any means and not what we were led to believe, even from the met. Again, I scratch my head to understand why some wanted the low to miss us to the south..we get another couple frosts before southwesterly gales take over..not much of a trade off!

1 minute ago, TillyS said:

Gone a couple of frames later though - see my post.

No northerly blocking = door open for the Atlantic to return  

I was thinking it was more aimed at those who thought it was there to stay...it was a bit of humour...look at the gesture

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

UKMO as early as 72 hours seems to be sending out a message out over Greenland...

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

Well I hope she is right, but the form horse looks a return to milder weather.  What we don't want is a tepid return to milder  weather, either let's at least have a massive snow dump from a frontal  event or a good unstable northerly airflow,  but I am not confident  of either happening now. If this is the case then it's a big anticlimax after what seems  like one of the longest chases ever 

It would be ironic if we have ended up spending 3 weeks looking foreward to a handfull of days of frosts with some snow in Scotland! Well worth it! 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Likely?/ and nxt weekend..   that’s all you need to think after a 7 day already cold / probably snowy period!!!

yes, at least there is plenty of opportunity before then for some..

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

It hasn’t updated yet has it? 

You're gonna get me shot  !

 

UK long range weather forecast

Tuesday 16 Jan - Thursday 25 Jan

Cold with wintry showers affecting northwestern coasts, with showers moving inland especially in the north, clearer in the south. Potential for more persistent snow through Tuesday in the northwest. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through midweek, potentially leading to areas of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue by night with wintry showers from the northwest between further potential pulses of snow as weather fronts move in from the west these likely drawing in milder conditions by next weekend.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Thu 11 Jan 2024

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Thinking GFS had this nailed going 'Exeter's' update.. Milder air being drawn in by the the weekend' 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Yea it's annoying that trend has been there for days now..why can't it just drop straight down!?

Also clicking between 120 and 144 its evident how quickly the scandi trough is moving west..

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ecm looking very cold by 120

It is but a quick glance to the north west and you can clearly see the spoiler..

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

59 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Next week looks a fuss about nothing for most on the 0z GFS. A brief initial cold plunge then the Atlantic LP failing to engage the cold troughing to the N and NE.

UKMO looks decent though.

Yes sticking last nights ECM with the last couple of GFS makes you wonder why some want the initial low to miss to the south..it might be the only chance you get to see some snow!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

No point viewing the charts until Sunday.

Too early to micro analyse such a complex situation.

Tend to agree, but we will all still have a peek Massive variations run to run, let alone model to model..no point getting over excited or depressed over any single run for later next week until we start to see some consistancy. ECM just another possibility.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The models moving towards a cold but rather dry initial northerly as pressure rises quickly and the winds veer more westerly again. However this feature north of Scotland needs watching.

Ecm 168 synoptically is great, but the shortwave above has killled the uppers for southern areas!

[Moans, ramps and banter]

3 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:

Off topic I know.but recently I've seen a weather station in aberporth on weather underground.is it yours?

Ahh, weve been moved. Yes the Aberporth weather station is based at the now Quinetic base..often seen on BBC also.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

2 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:

What about south Wales?kinda in line with Midlands

But very close to the coast.. knowing Hermon, you are in a good location!

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Maybe some sort of model agreement for day 7/8 (slightly better than day 10!!) with low pressure starting to make inroads from the south west. Not too much excitement before then for the south, as mentioned above that shortwave is a pain as it cuts off the northerly flow briefly so its a race against time for the cold uppers to head south again before the low hits (if indeed it does). 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

The trend is colder again for most after the weekend after a brief warm up, after that no clue whatsoever, pretty much no consistancy between models or even with the same model run to run, so no point getting too excited or dispondant after every run. As mentioned last night, I just hope we get some excitement with an 'event' and not dry spell with a slow relaxing of temperatures.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

1 hour ago, JoeShmoe said:

id FAR rather have a 2-3 day cold spell with snow on the ground than days of really cold weather but bone dry. really dont see much point and my heating bill goes up !

Totally agree, time after time those on the other thread celerbrate during our rare cold spells when lows get modelled further south and miss the uk prolonging the cold, then we get a poder puff slow warning up and breakdown..lets get the northerly in then an Atlantic low next day! Lest see some action for a change!

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

I can smell a major snow event coming to North Midlands/Northern England with rain/sleet to south according to GFS

Would follow on the general theme from over the last several years 

Bring it on..I havent the appetite for another dry cold spell, lets see some action!

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

In your opinion. Not mine

Sorry, I think you misunderstand. You said M4cast didnt say the eps were poor...my quote is what M4cast said this morning, its not my opinion its what he said. Page 239

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

1 hour ago, Scott Ingham said:

He didn’t say they were poor and they are far from poor. There were just a few more runs that went milder but the vast majority show what we’ve expected for over a week now. I really wouldn’t be worrying too much.

Here is what he said.. The poster @TSNWKwas correct.

"There’s no two ways about it really, this is a poor set from the EPS." 

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

Hardly wonderful! In a nut shell, cold and grey,  snow showers north, low risk of more general spell of snow in the south before the Atlantic returns.  

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

3 minutes ago, Chesil View said:

Indeed Weatherwizard just a couple of days ago we had cleaner retrogression and a cleaner southern jet taking lows into Europe.

Now its much more messy.  oh for the seventies and eighties when northern blocking was clean cut and trigger lows actually triggered something.  

Isnt this always the case though past day 10, its as if its lower resolution and everything looks clear cut, then as we head towards day 7 models pick up on nuances which effect the micro detail?