Skullzrulerz

Not a lot to do say really just some rain and no wind at all.

This is a good sign for coldies but this is a new model can we possibly trust it?

Global sea ice extent highest on record. http://iceagenow.info/2014/12/global-sea-ice-reaches-record-high/

Well what happened if i may say is that maybe the forecast for a 'cold heated winter' might of been wrong no offence to net's forecasters Yeah the models are showing if a say a cool 'zonal' weather type at the moment and everyone seems to be upset and depressed. Besides the mini cold spell we just had according to some people mid-jan may be the next cold spell.

Overcast bit some breaks in the cloud. Temperature A cold 8.9c

And just look at the ice extent!

The UKMO doesn't take feel like a major Strom and since Scotland is used to stormy weather more than England is is seems to be a typical day with a bit of strong windy bits thrown in it and of course much rain. ( I am only a newbie on models so bare with me on this ) The GEM looks a bit alive the UKMO bit does hit the isobars around that time a bit more close together giving a bit more strong winds for northern Ireland for a time. The NAVGEM which i don't really need to say anything is just like the UKMO. Overall Because of downgrades overnight just like Liam J said it will not be a major or intense low but a it will be windy day going from the models on their runs.

Okay lets write January off even before its started. At the very least i will go to write off January is the first ten days to be honest yes set-up for cold looks like as doom and gloom as ever as allways and that only thing that is a plus is the SSW. Some models go only out to around mid-way of January and yet you write off the second half of January without no model proof. However on a brighter note for coldies back in around mid December all the models are showing and endless,countless mild,wet,windy or whatever you want to call it regime. However things can change as around the 20th time frame the models were than showing a cold spell (Yes it did get downgrade in the end) which happened. So let's take it one day at a time one run at a time repeat. You never know the cold might be back on the models in the next 24 hours.

There seem to a quite of bit of uncertainty at the moment with the models at just over 2 days out.

In the very depths of FI Ecmwf gives a big storm for the east coast of the uk bring very strong gusts and rain with it.

We still got two more whole winter mouths and you're throwing the rest of the winter in the bin Yes the 1st half of January may be in a mild,wet,windy regime but just because of that doesn't mean we should write the rest of winter if you know what i mean. Already there is some cold appearing in the very deep fi right now.

That's fine than I didn't know of anything about this since I wasn't on here last night. Thanks for explaining it to me it's well appreciated for doing so.

Indeed I think this is going to have be watched carefully despise it being downgraded in the last few days all of the sudden it's been upgrade after upgrade. Tonight's models runs should help us of how strong the storm may be.

I think in a safe bet it would be best to keep watch for time being since for the last two days a few models have been showing all kinds of storms lately, probably there will be gone in the next few days or there be downgraded until there not really of any concern. And a side which is sightly off topic how come did the title change for? No offence I who like to know why?

Hello and welcome to the brand new thread and maybe the first one for 2015. To everyone on netweather have a happy new year. However back to on topic things some models are showing storms ( fine detail will come later as some go out to deep unreliable time-frame or whatever you want to call I am not talking about the new year's storm so here is a link to the new year's storm discussion below https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82129-new-years-day-possible-storm/ So let's use the soon to be main GFS model the GFS Parallel which will soon replace the old GFS which is still in use today. So let's start with this Saturday ( 3rd January 2015 ) A area of strong gusts of winds will first hit eastern and northern Ireland Than small area of strong gusts of winds will hit the isle of man and parts of northern Wales and northern England for a time. Than will the east coast will be taking on some moderate gusts for a few hours. On Monday the of 5th January a minor storm will hit northern Scotland. Now this is where deep fi starts to do its magic and bring some 'Major' storms on the GFS P. Wednesday 7th January 2015 This storm if it happens since models change their minds on each and every run of their lives this will bring a fair banging for the coasts of Scotland and possible strong gusts inland for a time. Friday 9th January 2015 Since it doesn't do a 3 hour thing at the end of the run i will try to predict what will happen if this storm were to happen. It will bring strong/very strong gusts possibly even damaging winds to a area which will most likely be the south coast and Wales. It than moves east wards bring a windy gusty day to England however damaging winds to a area of the UK cannot be ruled out. So than what are you thoughts for a possible storm period to happen in January? Share you thoughts here. Please also note the every run is different so the pictures that i have posted may be wrong in the next 24-48 hours.

Hi all i hope you guys are enjoying the winter weather up there. Just a question is there any 'wintry' weather heading to Cornwall?

Hello everyone I hope all of you had a fine Christmas day. So while some or most of England get to had fun with snow and sleet but for some of the south esp the south west will petty much miss out. And it me according to the BBC weather. It seems that the coldest day for me is 4c then to -2c overnight than slowly turning warmer (not milder) as the days slowly go by.

I think we are going to have until friday when all this low pressure confusion.com stuff is all sorted out Been hearing that it may just go down south into the british channel?

Just like to remind pepole that every run is different neither two are the exact same. So at the moment ECM and GFS want the high pressure to get kicked out of the uk then the pain odd mild old West huts the uk and end of story. However as I said it's just ONE run it may become a trend or it may not that's what model watching is all about guys and girls. Take the GFS for example. Yesterday it was the star of the show in the pub run. With cold to very cold conditions for most of the run Now look at it. What do we have now? The pub run tonight i think may be better for coldies but we shall see.

Let's hope the ECM will give us a early Christmas present and not a scoorge run.

Well a very good morning to you all A chilly 6.8c at the moment and it's a bit windy outside Hopefully this is the start of the road to coldness as long as it doesn't screw up. Have a fantastic Christmas eve and more importantly... Have a merry Christmas and a happy new year.

Merry Christmas and a happy new year to you all I hope everyone gets what you want wherever it's weather or not.

As of this now the GFS is the last man standing as it moves the low to around Scotland and then into the North Sea that will mean that the south of the will not get strong winds or a lot of rain or snow But the UKMO and ECM want the lot to go down the south and into the uk giving the south the strongest winds but how strong the winds will be are unknown and will probably change as the timeframe closes in. Yes there will be a lot of rain but however snow will be possable for Scotland and Northern hills giving a maybe fair dusting if not a fair few cm's. A less then 40% change that south east will also get a change of snow but that's is up in the air due to models changes. For the southern coast and South west I can not see snowfall happing wherever it sticks or not. It may come down to pure luck but there is still time for changes it could upgrade,downgrade or whatever you want to call it but this low could bring down cold air for a time but I will leave that to the more exp members I whouldnt want to confuse anyone. A wait and see game I think We shall see...

There is no way I be getting snow let alone a frost in Xmas day.

A day closer to the 27th and looks like the models are in confused.com land More runs will be needed until the storm can be at least somewhat nailed down.