Skullzrulerz
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Posts posted by Skullzrulerz
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1 minute ago, Singularity said:
A chance to see what's changed with ECM over the past 24 hours.
Broader cold trough by the UK & low by the Azores a bit further west / slower.
Latter shift could be significant if it's part of a trend going forward.
12z is much closer to GFS 12z than UKM 12z... let's see if that means a similar outcome down the line. It's not quite as far west & seems slightly broader, which might prove a critical difference - at least as far as the model's concerned.
Is it best to keep the low as far west as possible?
I still don't understand how it's rapidly gaining in strength that quickly
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5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
That low is dangerously close to heading west instead of east..
Or instead just stays there..
Is that even a good thing if it goes back west?
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Just now, Metwatch said:
The 850s aren't representative of what happens at the surface as quick silver pointed out.
Slack winds, very low sun / short daylength, low heights, that would make surface temperatures cold or very cold, not much above freezing during the day and well below by night.
For most of England yes that is true, however for costal areas, parts of Wales and the south west they do recover temperatures back to around average.
I guess we can't complain tbh
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11 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
The, as stated by some, "impossible" low is funnily enough back with a vegence - and further north on Icon 12z (the globe's most powerful short range model). Not too encouraging.
Disappointing start, noteworthy cold is gone even before the weekend.
Not to say that low will deepen because it's near impossible but gets strong enough it will wreak the entire thing!
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Don't really know what to say about the models this morning.
Cold does seem to be better in the short term, yet these lows that almost come out of nowhere seems to be a big spanner in the way of things.
While understandably in the medium to long term, breakdowns are here and there but remain in the minority.
The majority of the UK is set to receive these even colder conditions sometime mid next week, but for the Southwest and parts of Wales it's not looking likely at this time.
No point even discussing snowfall till it reaches a nowcast/short range.
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5 minutes ago, Johnp said:
Hmm ‘the’ low now really getting its act together at 162. Seems it was just a late developer on this run!
This low is really causing headaches, would be so much easier if the low didn't exist in the first place!
It has the possibility of messing everything up!
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3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
My view.. slightly better with initial cold plunge and a little worse with the Azores low that looks deeper and rounder
That Azores low is definitely concerning, it could ruin this entire set up.
I did see the GFS run this morning, absolutely mental with that "hurricane" low.
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4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Quite a large change from the icon at T120 over Greenland, let’s see how that pans out on the mornings GGS
Good or bad?
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9 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:
How about us southerners ?
And southwesterners?
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1 hour ago, danm said:
Less to do with luck, more to do with your local climate.
Dispute being around 200m above sea level, yes I can agree with that.
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1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
Gfs is rolling and at 90h the system is further east
East? We need it further west?
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15 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:
Kasim has every right to a opinion, regardless of how popular or unpopular it may be.
Although it remains outside the reliable timeframe it's something to look out for.
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53 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Wednesday into Thursday looking like the coldest night of the season so far. Nearly all areas below freezing, and some pretty hard frosts in rural spots.How on is Cornwall escaping these temperatures! We are quite a unlucky bunch!
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2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
At least we have at last...
Regarding this low, it's supposed to keep the cold air coming in for longer? Though it's not as good compared to evening runs.
Hopefully they are no more major changes.
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3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
Cold air generally about 50 miles further south
Mixed bag don't you think? Colder air further south but the low isn't as good.
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1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:
I think we can tell who are the glasses half full and glass half empty of the lot tonight. Right now my glass is just half.
Would like a beer instead please lol
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5 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:
In effect your post suggests despite little support there is now only one outcome (mild). Is there any point looking at themodels now, given the 'momentum' says the cold spell is doomed?
That's not what he's trying to say, momentum is going away from the prolonged cold that was shown earlier, instead it may be chilly being slightly below normal temps for the time of year.
The "Cold Spell" isn't doomed but it's being watered down.
Doesn't mean to say later on we may have our chance at getting something more noticeable.
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Just now, Kasim Awan said:
cold doesnt follow atlantic principles. im nit saying cold snap is off guys, im in the "water down expectations, reasses" boat, still a lot to play for .
Should of been the case from the get go, people are or were expecting too much.
They may still be a chance or two for things to turn around but when the herd moves it moves.
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Just now, Mike Poole said:
LOL!
You can't help but laugh!
No matter how many factors we have for even a chance at prolonged, snowy weather.
It almost never pulls off.
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Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
High risk/High reward scenario?
Doesn't look like it's going to pay off in our favour this time?