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Skullzrulerz

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    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, MattH said:

    Quick one but what is interesting is that both the EC Det and Control are (currently) outliers mid next week in terms of precip signal and 850mb temps (N Eng example below). This continued to be linked to the cyclonic development to the south. 

    Just because the EC (and UKMO) is preferred doesn't mean they will be correct and caution still required over the evolution that the GFS continues to signal but as things go, there's a greater probability of the low(S) to the south not being as influential as what the GFS shows, this also highlighted by the GEFS too. 

    Consistency required here but we do have a good'ol Det model 'stand off'. 

    Could contain: Plot, Chart

     

    Would you think a middle ground is the most likely outcome then? 

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I can understand people's disappointment this evening, ECM was a great run and somewhat supported by UKMO.

    Sadly the GFS hasn't exactly done that.. at least not yet.

    However the main issue is the lack of deep cold, yes it will get a tad more chilly getting temperatures to around average to sightly below.

    You won't however find widespread snowfall, let alone snow showers on low ground.

    Understandably people wanted to see something of the likes of 2010 along other events, but as fate seems to be at current it's looking unlikely at this stage.

    How ironic considering all of this blocking (which is quite impressive compared to recent years) which is supposed to send very cold/cold air and yet there's simply none nearby.

    By no means that somehow models can change considering the uncertainty with the blocking and other drivers.

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, jules216 said:

    Mika Rantanen on Twitter has a good point how -NAO has been resulting in much less severe outcome for Northern Europe because Arctic has been warming so much, this being 80s would yield 1°C instead of 4°C for you in UK. but no event is the same, however trends are there. That is why we need an easterly instead! 🙂 Meanwhile finally some frost this morning.

    Could contain: Plot, Chart

    Could contain: Water, Ice, Weather, Outdoors, Nature, Puddle

    If I recall I did post this somewhere on this forum, with the climate changing it would be better in terms of cold chances to get it from the east.

    Not too sure what to think of the models this morning after a quick look, at least the jet stream is on holiday in the Canary Islands!

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Cymro said:

    'All evidence points to the upcoming cold spell as totally meh' 

     

    I'm sorry but how can you make another sweeping statement like this, just as last night but with no said evidence in your post to support it? 

     

    What do you expect? Ice breakers on the Thames? 

    Just to add my thoughts.

    I think that there's a lot of hype around this cold spell or spells depending on how things develop.

    I have to say again, 2010 was a very rare event in it's own right. We may very well get a cold spell but it's unlikely that it match the sheer scale of what 2010 cold event.

    This morning there's been a "upgrade" on the cold uppers, however the Greenland high or high pressure around it isn't as robust.

    So it's looking like a mixed bag this morning in general.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    But how can you get excited,it's so many days ahead!

    Don't get me wrong, that looks quite impressive and could very well bring a sharp cold spell.

    Alas, it's in fantasyland territory.

    These cold/very cold conditions get pushed back and back sadly which isn't helping.

    It's not helped as well by that very annoying low around Portugal/Spain that can really put a dent in the way of things.

    We need to get these charts a lot closer then they are now, then we can get excited about it!

    • Like 5

    Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

    Ar, I’m so angry with the models this morning. I mean why couldn’t the developing North-Easterly for next week on the GFS be very very very very slightly stronger. The 850 hPa temperatures are 0.01% too warm and the blocking to the North of the UK could do being 0.0001% stronger. And seriously, that 10 day ECMWF ensemble mean is a joke. Why couldn’t that mean Low to the South of the UK just be 1 mile further East? Is making me feel so negative

    The weather will do what it wants to do, honestly as long as it's dry that's what I care about.

    A pleasant winters day is the best thing 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    Sorry to go on about this but I find it incredible that all week people have been favouring the para when it was showing the best outcomes (“it’s going live in a few days” etc). 
    It’s been showing a horror show for the last few runs and now it’s ignored. 
     

    It's like everyone supports a different football club because they win the most goals.

    You have to feel sorry for those that are new here being confused as of late.

    Looking at the general theme this morning while there's still a great amount of blocking around, the lack of cold is very disappointing.

    Cracks are appearing too in the medium term, if it keeps up expect a unravelling.

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

    Yikes.. 

    Could contain: Chart

    Pretty sizeable shift in the ensembles there. The problem we've had for days now is still there, a complete lack of access to cold air despite the blocking. 

    We must be the unluckiest country in Europe for getting any cold air here.

    It's been a issue for the past few days that to simply put, anything noteworthy for cold... Isn't there in the short time or is beyond day 10/pushed back.

    It's going to have to be a second yellow card for this "cold" spell.

     

     

     

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    56 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Yep. There’s have never been anything to suggest significant cold despite the excitement on here.

    It's such a shame considering the Synoptics.

    We can all look at Day 10 charts all we want, we need these charts to get into the reliable time frame for a chance for it to happen.

    Betting that in a week's time we still be looking at Day 10 charts 

    • Like 2
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