Skullzrulerz
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Posts posted by Skullzrulerz
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39 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
I'm with you. On the southern bias suggestion - the current trends are no good for any of us longer term -> a trough mixing up over us is the theme now, details to be settled. but we are losing the chance of something special.
As a cold fan who wants to see snowfall and the such, this is going to be the case if the current trends continue.
What's hasn't helped is the comparisons to 2010 for example, I'm sorry to say this but as things stand it's looking unlikely that we will see something of the sort.
By all means it will get colder and some places may experience snowfall but it isn't going to be anything special as things stands now.
Of course the models can chop and change so we may still have time yet
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Just now, TSNWK said:
ECM tonight will be important, if it does continue to trend that way it's going to to be inevitable that the other models will as well.
Be a shame if that happened...
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1 minute ago, TSNWK said:
12GFS going more west and diffused I say at 126 on left 12z 132Z 06Z on right - these early changes set the picture for week 2 as I see it. Not good to see 12Z edge toward ECM longivity is my view
Disappointing truth be told, hopefully ECM may backtrack to a more favourable position this evening.
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3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
Ecm 144 looks to be going west again . Perhaps not quite so much, happy to be corrected if wrong .
Are you referring to a West Based NAO?
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Just now, seb said:
ECM wobble corrected by the looks of it.
Please don't jinx it!
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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
We already have the cold in well before day ten
Around average to sightly below? Chilly, yes we have.
But if we are looking for widespread cold/brutal or what ever you want to say.
The can is for kicking.
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14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
What a run! I’ll take the delay if it leads to what is shown from day 7!
Back to Day 10 + kicking the can down the road.
Don't get me wrong, it looks awesome but with the GFS recent performance, I would take the chance of winning the lottery.
Personally we need to get the cold in quickly then the rewards will hopefully follow.
A very important Ecm coming up...
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2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Draw me a better winter chart?!
Still a bit of a long way to go, would like to see these charts getting to just a few days away, not around Day 10.
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10 minutes ago, Vikos said:
1070 Greenland High drops to 1055
We really need that Greenland High to stay as strong as possible.
GFS is good but the high not being as strong is a bit worrying.
Another thing is the PX around Hudson Bay.
Cold coming in from the North East, I would prefer coming from the east.
Would be more suitable for the South west.
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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:
Cold rain.....lovvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvely!
Yes it is a "upgrade" for "uppers" but unless you live on a hill.
That's exactly what you're going to get.
Still ICON is better then to this morning's.
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2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:
The icon is colder than this morning run, with cold air filtering back south quicker
Ah, I thought it meant a snow event because of the low.
That's my mistake.
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1 minute ago, Gowon said:
Icon has gone back to having that annoying low further north again, so not as cold.
Disappointing, ECM will be worth watching tonight.
We may very have have a trend on our hands.
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7 minutes ago, Snowy L said:
Of course the GFS and ECM switch roles lmao.
Double Turn indeed
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1 minute ago, seb said:
Don't think there needs to be any hero lol. Every single model is going to wobble a bit. This kind of setup is always confusing to the models and every time they try do weird things in one run which then completely vanish in the next.
Just look back the last few pages, the GFS has been all over the place! It's like it's been out for too many drinks, while ECM has been mostly stable it's in output.
Only till this morning apparently it's not good enough because its showing the wrong output.
Yes, this afternoon will be very important but we shouldn't disregard models because of their output.
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Looks like the GFS is now the hero, because of one poorer run from the ECM.
Keep in mind that the ECM is a slightly more reliable then the GFS, I don't think I need to explain about the GFS recently too...
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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
oh dear though - the eps do go very west based, very early.
If the ECM is staying to go down this part then the chances of major cold is reduced, it's not game over by any means but we be stuck in a rock and a hard place.
The ECM has been top dog throughout this chase but the chase may take a detour.
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4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
Be careful with using these snow depths charts, it's goes under the impression that all precipitation will be snow.
Sadly with those uppers it won't be cold enough.
Not sure where the disappointment is coming from, but it wasn't expected that we would see anything beyond chilly, at least still mid December.
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3 minutes ago, That ECM said:
I’ll take it.
Okay fine, you have a deal
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2 minutes ago, That ECM said:
Mean while back in model land. T120 Ukmo is
Quite a decent run so far, would like the high pressure a bit further east.
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20 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
06z GFS is now firmly in bed with the ECM, huge changes at a very short timescale.
Here comes the northerly!
And the story this evening is that the ECM will get out of bed and have a few drinks. (Meaning that the ECM could very be showing us charts like the GFS has done recently) ?
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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Well, that's going to put anything "noteworthy" cold or snow to bed.
It will get colder and perhaps some snow in favourable areas, but that's all she wrote.
The ECM has picked up a trend and I would probably expert the others to follow.