[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Much better GFS06Z but I remain sceptical. Until we have the ECM on board I’d be very wary of what the GFS is showing at the moment. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

However we dress today up it’s not been great ECM has been showing not great for the last 3 runs now. Seems as though the pub run has been on the lemonade tonight. Definitely not trends we won’t to see into tomorrow. Still very sceptical about any deep freeze and heavy snowfall. Let’s see what tomorrow brings. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Even if the ecm is correct it’s not a huge problem it would still be chilly and much colder further north. But I believe it’s wrong. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

7 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Sledge! 

 

Unfortunately to me it looks raw damp and drizzly more than white.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

So looks like the gfs pub run has certainly been on the lash tonight. Let’s see what tomorrow output shows. Fingers crossed for some sort of model consistency tomorrow. But what’s the betting toys & prams will be flying everywhere in the morning. Maybe we need an amber warning for flying toys and prams. In fact scrap that let’s upgrade to a level red warning

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

 Think Paul Hudson & Liam Dutton have this summed up perfectly. They is nothing showing heavy snowfall or brutal cold in the output. Maybe a few have got carried away with the dark purples. Pretty standard fair next week sunny spells and some frost which I can live with after all the floods round here. But certainly nothing to worry about regarding deep cold & heavy snowfall that’s for sure. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Do you no the best thing about that day 10 charts from the GFS12z. It means the mother in law won’t get here for Xmas day. Please just for once verify.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

36 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Vortexplunge UK

And I’ve more chance of wining tomorrows euro millions

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Well seems I’ve stumbled upon the 850pha temp thread tonight. I was looking for the model output thread anyone point me in the right direction please

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

41 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I suspect Jules will like this run

All the cold heading down into Greece how many times do we see this in the winter in recent years.

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

Suprised it's settling that low down, brings a few people into the game. Probably enough for the <100m club 

Yeah I’m surprised too. Wasn’t expecting this. Nice bonus after getting nothing last night. 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

What's ya altitude?

200m above sea level. 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Heavy snow here in Huddersfield. Everything white over already. Nice surprise didn’t expect this.

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Good luck to everyone tonight can’t see this happening for us in the far west but hey hio let’s hope for better come January 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Looking at the radar I think for us in the far west I.e Huddersfield etc is going to be a struggle to see anything meaningful this evening tonight. Sweet spot looks like South Yorkshire on latest projections. 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Looking at the radar I think for us in the far west I.e Huddersfield etc is going to be a struggle to see anything meaningful this evening tonight. Sweet spot looks like South Yorkshire on latest projections. 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

I’m not entirely convinced West Yorkshire will see much in the way of snowfall this evening and tonight looking at the latest radar images. Looks like most of the precipitation stay south of us. Looks like South Yorkshire should do ok from it though. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

I have a feeling tomorrow is going to be a good day viewing the models  

Well that’s given it the kiss of death lol

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

59 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That will put huge pressure on the strat, incidentally, big reduction in zonal winds, and big increase in members going for SSW early Jan today:

But we have to remember a ssw doesn’t always guarantee cold for our shores. But here is hoping it works in our favour. Fingers crossed  

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

So latest met update are going for this back end of next week. Temps of 10c. Yet we have that ECM tonight. Confused to say the least. Who will be right. Definitely an interesting time model watching that’s for sure. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

I think it’s fairly clear to see now we are going to see a return to westerly winds and milder temps which is backed this morning by the ukmo how long this last remains to be seen. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Sweatyman said:

Gonna be a very short mild snap i tell thee. 1 or 2 days!!

You spelt weeks wrong lol  

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Faith in the background signals for me and @Catacolcan remain in tact for now, I think. GFS has clearly had a boozy lunch today.

A boozy lunch I think the GFS12z has been out on the all day session. Looks like the next chase is not quite on just yet. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

And we will know its thoughts on the gfs12z by ecm12 192..

And I’d place my mortgage on it been a huge outliner unfortunately. Would love to see it not been but it just has gone off on one surely

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

And we will know its thoughts on the gfs12z by ecm12 192..

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

What the hell has the GFS12z tried to pull out the bag there lol. If that isn’t a huge outliner then I don’t know what is.