terrier
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Posts posted by terrier
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8 hours ago, CoventryWeather said:
Personal opinion, but I still don't really understand why people are writing off the last 10 days of July. Next week, a fresh feel as winds veer Northwest, but it should be dry bar Tuesday (and that's really mainly the NW). Occasional showers, but hit and miss and unlikely to be widespread and should feel nice in any sunshine.
I am still expecting increased heights later next week into the last week of July, and perhaps further east allowing warmer conditions for the south into early August. The GFS 6z shows this solution, albeit weakly, later next week as a plume moves northwards. Lots of uncertainty regarding the tropical low, and how this impacts the jet, but I'm doubtful for another unsettled spell - feel a drier end to July and perhaps warmer seems more likely.
Erm unfortunately this isn’t looking likely now. Tonight’s output is unanimous across the board. And seem next weekend we have a low pressure right over the U.K.
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Well after just seeing the latest weather for the week ahead. Seems like we will have a big fat low pressure sat over the U.K. next weekend. Looks like a washout. So seems to tie in with the models well for next weekend at least.
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2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
At least next weekend is now looking a bit warmer with winds potentially more from south of west rather than north.
An interesting development- it could end up being rather warm in the south and east.
Yes warmer but unfortunately very wet
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Well to stay in line with Wimbledon it’s game set and match on the output this evening. Absolutely atrocious for July. Let’s hope for better come August.
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GFS12Z bad. GEM horrendous. What will the ECM have to say. Just seems we can even get any sort of ridge to slightly build at the moment. Certainly depressing stuff at the moment.
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12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Good god please refrain from looking at the gfs 12z!!SOS!!!!🌧
Yeah if that is anywhere close to correct we can forget July as a whole. We have certainly paid for that warm settled June this month. Looks like cancelling my trip to Scarborough cricket festival now was a very wise move. But for anyone that is on holiday in the next 2 weeks I hope you can make the best of a bad situation.
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Absolutely rubbish latest GFS. Rain cool and wet sums it up. Even that pathetic ridge on the GFS06Z has given up the ghost.
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Well yet another depressing run from the GFS this morning. Further showers or longer spells of rain right out to T384. Think that’s July over & done with now for any settled or warm weather. Seems we are certainly paying for that lovely warm June. Anyone staying in holiday in the U.K. in the next fortnight pack your waterproofs.
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Another very poor GFS run this evening. A wet weekend coming up. A few usable days early next week before we see another low pressure moving in next Thursday with further heavy rain and cool temps out into the following weekend. Then right out to the end of the run it’s further rain or showers. No sign of anything warm or settled.
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21 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Does it get better in FI ?? I think not!
Yea unfortunately that takes us out to a week on Sunday. I think we can more or less now write off July. Cannot see a sudden transformation in the final week of July. Such a shame for those who have booked their U.K. stay that co insides with the schools breaking up. Fingers crossed for August now
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I don’t mean to be the bearer of bad news. But it doesn’t matter how we try to dress it up at the moment the output for the next 10 days isn’t great. Yes they are some usable days. But overall we are in a cool wet/showery regime for some time to come. Not great but sadly that seems highly likely as things stand.
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3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
Met Office multi model consensus suggests that a North Westerly is the favoured outcome right through the 26th (i assume that actually means a polar maritime airmass).
That is absolutely awful for high summer.
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25 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
Looks also adding to my above post that the GEFS MJO will get more coherent and stronger by the link below so we know where we stand a bit more and to have a clearer signal to more improvement of weather by the end of the month, or into August. Not saying it'll happen straight away though as it will be gradual.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml
Well let’s hope it gets a shift on. Because the GFS06Z was showing it’s wet and cool out to the 29th of July on its latest output earlier
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And so the GFS06z continues with the unsettled theme right out into FI. Yes a few usable days next week for sure. But all in all a very cool showery outlook or longer spells of rain right out till T384.
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11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Look away now if you are after anything good from the day 10-15 ECM ensembles this morning, they are grim to say the least.Ouch. Can tell the schools break up for summer next week. Those are absolutely awful
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Well back to square one this morning on the GFS 00z low pressure systems just keep coming right the way out into FI. Definitely no signs of anything warm or settled on this run.
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So looks like the latest GFS goes off on one around T336 with warmer and drier conditions. Let’s see if this is a new signal it’s picking up on. Or if it’s a huge warm outliner.
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9 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Well it was one step forward with GFS yesterday however it’s about 9 back this morning. Any trying to make it look or sound pretty this morning needs some counselling.
Both 850s and SLP views of the ensembles are awful.
Yeah those are awful. Think we can safely write off July now. Let’s hope for something better as we move forward into August. Looks like cancelling my stay cation on the 24th of July now was a good call.
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Well the gfs this morning isn’t great once again. A few usable days early next week before more low pressure systems come barrelling into the U.K. once more. Definitely no real signs of things settling down just yet.
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21 minutes ago, Don said:
A warm/hot end of July, possibly similar to that of 2002?
Not to say that can’t happen. But unfortunately they is nothing showing short term or longer term as things stand of a warm/hot end to July.
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So the latest run of the GFS is a warm outliner. You just couldn’t make it up. Yes next week looks slightly better. Especially further south. This weekend coming looks abysmal. Looks like something reminiscent of October rather than July. Further ahead looks like further bouts of low pressure coming in from the north west. With further bands of showers or longer spells of rain. Think if anyone has a break away in the U.K. in the next 10/14 days pack a rain coat and warm jumper. Roll on August to hopefully get back to something warmer and more settled.
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Well the GFS06Z is a complete horror show wet and cool even out into deep FI. Let’s hope for something better into August as Matt H alluded to earlier.
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Well after last nights pub run showing something a little more settled in fi it’s back down to earth with a mighty bump this morning. Looking cool and unsettled right out towards month end now on the long term outlook. Looks like it was a good call to cancel our stay cation w/c 24th July. Let’s hope for something better moving into august.
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So the gfs pub run was showing something a little more settled and warmer out in deep fi. Will this be a new trend been picked up. Or are we been lead up the garden path. Let’s see what this morning’s output has to show. I’m certainly far from convinced at the moment. But here is hoping fingers crossed
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Looks like another very unsettled weekend coming up on the GFS00z Saturday doesn’t look too bad but Sunday looks a wash out. Then into the following week we see further low pressure systems across the country with showers or longer spells of rain. Pretty grim really.