terrier
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Posts posted by terrier
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Oh here we go again. From the highs of the gfs output last night. To the disappointment this morning. You couldn’t make it up. The ECM isn’t even that bad that would still be cold under that surface high. We are on the edge of a mild Atlantic we are never going to be locked into a 3 month freeze. Still all to play for going into winter.
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For anyone worried about how dry the models looks don’t be. We will see all sorts of little disturbances show up for some in the unstable cold air mass. And once we do see the milder air make inroads into the U.K. I think with it bumping into entrenched cold we could see some large snowfalls for some.
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8 minutes ago, Hatewarmth said:
This is exactly what i was saying yesterday would happen. More often than not the low will track further south and with winds going NE Yorkshire get pummelled with showers and steamers
Yeah think the north east the wash and Yorkshire could be in prime position for snow Thursday night into Friday morning.
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42 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
As expected the low looks increasingly likely to miss the UK entirely;
Looks good to me lots of showers packing in off the North Sea. I’ve seen streamers set up from this set up which has dumped lots of snow in this part of the country
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Well before the pub run starts. Just a heads up the beast from the east is on the telly. A coincidence I think not lol.
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:
The op isn't an outlier - The control is - op may well have become one if it went to 360 but it wasn't at 240.
My apologies it’s been a long day.
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4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
ECM…..what are you doing????
Nothing unfortunately as it’s an outliner in its ensembles.
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11 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:
As others have said, let's relax a bit with the longer range - the pattern is so messy I don't think it adds much. Here's the GFS 18z OP run as a GIF from T+6 to T+120 with the 850hPa. At this stage, the deepest cold seems to be sticking to our east, with us somewhat on the fringes of it. There is an impressive amount of cold available across Scandinavia, but we need it to come at us in the right configuration to produce snow, and until I see the -6C coming across most of the country at T+120 or sooner I really wouldn't be all that confident in widespread snow. The -8C line would be better still, of course.
ECM 12z also on at a similar trend (adjusted to run from T+12 to T+126 so they line up).
Of course, with a marginal event like this, all it takes is a slight upgrade or downgrade to make the difference, so even into early next week I'd still say nothing is certain. I think that for most of us this will be just the wrong side of marginal for accumulating snow, unless we get a slight further upgrade.
There are some nice charts later on next week as others have posted, but we've been down this road too many times for me to pay too much attention to those.
So, my outlook for the next five days would be a cold weekend, and into early next week, snow over high ground, especially in Scotland and N England, but for the lowlands it'll be cold rain or sleet. I'd love to be wrong, but that's the way I'm calling it at the moment.
Think your are in with a very good chance of some snowfall next week in your location looking at the output today
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Well great charts tonight if it’s cold and possibly a chance of snow for some. The ECM was fantastic and that will take some beating. Thankfully I’m heading to sunnier climbs for 10 days but I wish you all luck in your snow chase fingers crossed guys. Just hope we can land back at Manchester in 10 days time lol
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Just now, Ali1977 said:
Snow maker
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For the far north yes. For the majority cold rain
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29 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
The North Sea is modifying this airmass a lot, you can really see that on the 12z ICON if you run the animation. Notice how a deeper sub -15C pool moves across Scandinavia, reaches the North Sea and just evaporates.
And a snow making machine for us northerners
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Nothing wrong with tonight’s output in my opinion turning colder with snow chances galore also we now have the met on board and the ukmo is a thing of beauty. Bring it on. These Synoptics for late November early December in years gone by we would have snapped your hand off.
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13 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
I'm hoping that ukmo 168 chart,is ok..it looks like it could be a bit west based..and the main lobe over Scandinavia seems to be moving northwest putting pressure on the heights trying to build in the atlantic..one that needs watching
And there we have the 1st line of the model output bingo. West based lol. Think the output this morning is fine in my opinion. The ukmo and gfs are absolutely fine. Yes no snowmageddon but definitely a lot more seasonal as give us a chance to dry out after months of rainfall.
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Surely that wishful thinking on those temps looking at tonight’s ouput. Must be old data
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£10 quid says this all shifts south and goes down into Greece as per usual. Only joking what a cracking set of output tonight. Surely they is some head scratching going on now at the met office. Bet Fridays update reads differently if this output continues.
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34 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
No, but it will have taken into account tropical forcing & I suspect GLOSEA/EC decider models which evidently are not supportive of the det runs being shared here.
The Met are the best in the business.
Have to agree with you on this one. The Glosea/Ec must not be buying this. As you say the met are probably the best in the business and they certainly aren’t buying what the GFS is churning out at the moment. Guess something has to give in the next few days. One thing for sure one way or another is going to have egg on its face. Until the met are fully onboard I won’t be rushing out to get the de ice just yet.
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Some lovely looking charts at the moment. But I remain sceptical. As we know we could do with the met office on board. Unfortunately reading there latest musings sounds like a short sharp cold blast. Before we are back to cloudy damp milder conditions. Obviously they have much more data to hand than us mere mortals so I remain firmly feet on the ground at this moment in time.
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Well tonight’s GFS12Z isn’t too bad at all after about Wednesday next week lots of dry weather around and should certainly feel pleasant In any sunshine. Then it remains dry and settled right out to the following week should certainly feel pleasant enough for late summer early autumn.
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10 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
Have to say it but the start of September now doesn't look as good now as what it did yesterday on the GFS 12Z operational run in 8 days time.
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php
To me it looks like an undercutting low trying to interfere with the proceedings of the south atlantic and European ridges coming together.
To be honest I think tonight’s GFS12z looks a lot better than this mornings GFS output from around middle of next week things settle down with a high pressure building in for the end of next week and into the weekend of the 1st of September onwards.
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So it seems next week we have a low pressure sat over the U.K. with showers or longer spells of rain according to the Gfs06z. Into the following weekend looks like things may settle down somewhat. But only a few days ago things weren’t looking to bad which the gifs now seems to have dropped that idea for the start of next week. Maybe these tropical storms are sending the models all over at the moment. More runs needed I guess.
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Think we have to accept that into next week it’s going to turn milder this has been the trend for the last few days now. Hopefully we will see a reload of cold as we head further into December which Tamara alluded to earlier in the thread. But before we see the milder air move in we have a good week of below average temps which will certainly help dry the ground out. Especially round these parts. So in summary a week of cold weather with a few wintry showers round the coast. Then back to some Atlantic influence before hopefully we see the cold return mid December onwards. Fingers crossed