terrier
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Posts posted by terrier
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7 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
Signs now that although the trough will be present at 8-14 days that it will be on the way out according to NOAA anomolies:
Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOVSo that takes us out to the last week of July and still unsettled with temps around average with and plenty of showers or longer spells of rain I would suspect. Roll on August for hopefully something resembling summer.
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2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Another very unsettled run from the gfs …….
No tease of fine weather even in FI….
Yeah we can’t catch a break whatsoever at the moment. Start of the school holidays back end of next week too. Isn’t looking good is it. Let’s hope for something better early August.
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Not a great set of outputs this morning. We are once again looking at t384 on the gfs for anything slightly more settled. Which no doubt will keep getting pushed back. This week showers or longer spells of rain. Then into the weekend gales and heavy rain for many areas in the west. Then into the following week we see further heavy rain and temps below average. Not great for high summer unfortunately.
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25 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Any talk of an improvement is still very much premature imo and just noise within the ensembles out to around the 20th.
Both GEM and GFS in unusual harmony in the period of the 15-20th with yet another cool and unsettled spell.
So that takes us out to a week on Thursday. Not great is it. Unsettled next week. Then cool and unsettled the following week. Absolutely horrid for high summer. Let’s hope early august can pull something out the hat. Because July has been an absolute disaster of a month. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the last week of July carry on in the same vain either.
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That’s about as bad as you could get for high summer
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20 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
Don't mind this unsettled weather provided it stops on July 22nd for my week away...
Best we can hope for is some beefy thundery showers to keep the weather interesting but that's all the optimism I can muster.
The cyclonic weather will knock a fair bit off those anomalous SSTs that materialised in June.
CET for mid July will probably be around the 61-90 average or a touch above as we go past the half way point.
Looking at the long range output I think looking at your week away I would pack your waterproofs unfortunately. We should have also been away that week on the east coast but we have decided to cancel. As don’t think sitting in the rain at the cricket festival would be much fun.
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Very quiet in here. I take it the GFS is another horror show.
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Wow. The gifs & gem is not what we are wanting to see in high summer. 3 low pressure systems tracking through the U.K.. which takes us out to the 21st of July. Think July is going to come in below average temps wise. Let’s hope for something better as we move into august. Because July is looking like a complete and utter bust.
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9 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:
latest eps has low pressure after the weekend all the way until the 20th.. the noaa has low pressure until the 18th..... mean upper flow at 500mb is northwesterly sourced... cool and unsettled, sunshine and showers or longer spells of rain. not 2012 though.
EPS Model – 500mb Height Anomaly for Northern Hemisphere | Tropical Tidbits
WWW.TROPICALTIDBITS.COMEPS model forecast of 500mb Height Anomaly for Northern HemisphereSo that takes us out to the last week in July. Wow what a depressing outlook.
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Well I shouldn’t have even looked at the gfs 06z run. All I will say is oh dear. Maybe some temporary ridging next week. But overall a terrible run for high summer. I’m now getting to the stage of July been a complete right off for high summer conditions. Can’t see anything on the long range models to suggest otherwise. Even the met long range is now hinting at unsettled conditions out to months end. Seems we are certainly paying for that warm dry June. Roll on august for hopefully something better.
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25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
This is proving to be a stubborn pattern looking forward.
I mentioned the other day Greenland heights and troughs at our latitude can be extremely durable during summer ,I've 2 weeks off from the 15th and I'm seriously thinking of cancelling my hols and waiting until August ..
Watching NWP like a hawk for signs of a change mid month..
latest EC isnt pleasant viewing at day 7
Mainland Europe looks to be the winner in the UK trough scenario....
Yeah I agree with your analysis. July isn’t looking great at all. We have already cancelled our stay cation on east coast w/c 24th of July. Don’t think the cricket festival in Scarborough will be much fun looking at the long range output. Hopefully a change as we head into august.
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The ecm and its ensembles are awful this morning. Looks like we are proper stuck in a rut with this pattern. Glad I’ve cancelled my stay cation last week of July. Hopefully august will bring us something better. Because July is shaping up to be a nightmare of a month if it’s sun and warmth you’re after. Should have know better than to book a week on the east coast in this country
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Ukmo looks good for the coming weekend. Gfs & gem also not too bad. Before the rubbish weather returns on Monday. Talking of rubbish and looking at the longer range decided to cancel our stay cation on the east coast w/c 24 of July. Don’t think Scarborough cricket festival will be much fun in the rain and cool temps. Certainly paying for that lovely warm June.
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2 hours ago, Bats32 said:
Daily ECM 46 forecasts go live tomorrow with an ECM upgrade. A change showing mid July. Seems the signal for above average temps has beed watered down a little. https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1673324568965005312?s=19
Well if that is anywhere close to correct looks like we can pretty much write off July. What a shame. Hopefully august will bring back summer. Think our stay cation in the U.K. at end of July could be a wet one. Ah well at least it’s dry in the pub lol
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20 minutes ago, SunSean said:
That chart right there, is as horrific as having 1000 papercuts and then having a soak in a bath of salt & vinegar.
I’m not for writing off an entire month. But Jesus wept that is an awful chart. Let’s hope this isn’t a pre cursor to a wet and cool July. Wouldn’t be the first time we have seen a pattern like this get entrenched for high summer.
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Well if the gifs is anything to go by this morning we can pretty much write off the first week of July. Also the Ec46 seems to be losing the settled outlook as we move forward into high summer. I fear we may end up paying for such a warm and dry June. I’m not writing off July as a whole. But as things stand it isn’t looking great. Let’s hope for a change as we move forward. Think we need to make the most of this weekend. Because it could be awhile before we see anything warm and settled for some time. If the output is correct of coarse.
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Thankfully it’s looking like some much needed rain next week. Farmers & Growers will be liking tonight’s model output so far. Still looking warm though between any drier spells. But overall next week is looking very showery. But not a bad thing to be honest. We certainly need the rain round these parts.
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19 minutes ago, Howie said:
Personally, I think we've seen enough rain throughout this spring. Would like to see the sunny and warm weather continue. Bit dissapointed
To be honest the farmers round here are crying out for rain. The carrot crop fields here are having to be irrigated just to germinate. Some rain would be most welcome. And thankfully the models are now hopefully trending towards some rainfall as we move forward thankfully.
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6 hours ago, Downburst said:
Tonight’s weekly’s from ecm. Next week looks like the rain is coming, after that returns to average. Temps warmer than average to the end, 42 days. But pressure falls next week and week after. We shall see. First full week July the pressure drops over Iberia again, last picture.
Thankfully that looks a great update for many especially farmers. We all need some much needed rain round here now. And that would certainly tie in with the met office thinking of a cooler wetter July. Certainly no complaints on that update.
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Well I made it to work thanks to this guy. It’s a mess out there stay safe everyone
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Well woke up to almost a foot of snow in places this morning. The walk to work is going to be fun!!
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Well this is our main road tonight and it’s still hammering it down. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a foot of snow come tomorrow morning.
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Beer garden tables at the local
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Unfortunately it still looks like lots of showers or longer spells of rain on that sequence of output. Definitely not very summer like for mid July.