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terrier

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    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

    GFS is showing a big fat trough covering all of the UK and France going all the way to northern Iberia 10 days out , Really hope this doesn't pass or if it does indeed come to pass that it doesn't gets stuck in place for both the Bank Holiday and my trip to Menorca in early Sept. Had a trip to Barcelona a few years back before Covid in early Sept, one day had a high of 18c and drizzly clag all day and 3 out 5 days were overcast (Although I would guess this poor weather came from a cut off low or a southerly tracking jet not a trough as the weather in the UK was pretty decent that time). I wasn't too upset as it was more a city break than a beach/waterpark trip though.

    (Crossposted from Summer 2023 as it was suggested this may fit here as well) 

     

    Thankfully it’s at day 10 so very much deep FI. The gfs has been throwing out all sorts of output at the day 10 range lately. From cool northwesterly’s to warm southwesterly’s so all to play for. The met seems to be going with. Settled early September so I wouldn’t worry too much yet!!

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    53 minutes ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

    One thing I have noticed from several of the recent GFS model runs.

    After the warm up (how much so still TBD) early next week, there has been a trend for a cool or very cool period towards the end of August. On the GFS 12 for example it has some parts of the UK struggling to make double figures Celsius on some days. Perhaps a mix of northwesterly winds and the orientation of a low pressure later next week in C/S England.

    Of course this is likely FI, but it is possible that we could have both our warmest and coolest days of the summer before the month is out.

    Yeah have to admit I’ve also spotted this over the last few runs. Looks as you say we could have some very cool and wet weather out towards the end of the gfs run. But as you say it’s all fi at the moment. 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

    Next week doesn't look like a washout in my eyes - looks very showery, similar to this week. It will probably feel warm in any breaks in the cloud and showers with the strong late July sunshine. 

    That gfs06z output certainly wasn’t showery that was full on frontal rain unfortunately. Time for it to change though I will admit 

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, Buzz said:

    And yet neither ECM nor the GFS show it being as bad as that at the same time, there's different positioning on each of those too. In other words, it's a week away and still too early to be sure how that will develop. It may end up further north, weaker, etc. Wait and see and don't assume the worst based on one run from one model.

    Sorry I was more on about this weekend and next week. Saturday & Sunday looks a complete wash out for many. Then early part of next week also looks showery or longer spells of rain. Yes I realise that low pressure into the following weekend could move. But on the last two weekends just gone it’s been pretty spot on. And you know that Sod’s Law it will no doubt be correct again. 

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Weather-history said:

    For late July, that is a shocker

    image.thumb.png.3d0a92798ad019a46105f13f13980f79.pngimage.thumb.png.db2bd9f165e63443ce3683688fda631c.png

     

    Not far off this terrible chart from the end of July 1956 which gave summer gales 

    image.thumb.png.01fd74c151c5d7685474be2e1551f89a.png

    Yes next week looks a proper shocker on this morning’s GFS00z  a very wet weekend coming up. Then next week it’s showers or longer spells of rain and cool temps. Then another low pressure system for the following weekend too. 

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Derecho said:

    Yeah EC isn't as bad as its output from recent days. Was worried about my week away in East Anglia next week but if the EC were to come off it'd be patchy rain on Saturday evening, showers on Sunday and Wednesday and some heavier rain on Monday morning. 

    Not the washout of previous runs at least, though no sign of a heatwave for now

    Hope you have a good time. We decided to cancel a few weeks ago. Was supposed to be attending the Scarborough cricket festival next week. But thankfully after seeing tonight’s GFS & ECM looks like we have made the right decision this time. 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

    And here's this week's Met. Office Ten-Day Trend. I'm sure I've seen better!

     

    As he says though the models are still struggling with the low this weekend. And next week won’t be a total washout thankfully. So at least family’s that are away next week will have some useable weather too. Let’s see what the GFS & ECM come up with shortly. 

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