derrylynne
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Posts posted by derrylynne
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No way. I live about three miles from Tonyrefail and it is far too warm with dew points too warm also. Wishful thinking Butt.Very Light snow shower in Tonyrefail apparently!
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What is that system building up near jersey and France. The streamer appears to be moving west. While cut off from where it starts. Instead being replaced with a swirling system that maybe heading up to us. While over the Irish sea cloud is dispersing. Anybody know that is going on because this seems to be unexpected...
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I really do not think this snow is going to leave that much. If you look you can see the snow belt is filling and breaking up. Pressure is also building and it is moving along quite smartly. My educated guess is at most a couple of inches, maybe two and you will be lucky. The snow is though getting lighter with time and will mostly have petered out by morning. The Atlantic looks like making inroads at the weekend when attention once again will turn to flooding. But, we have had a couple of weeks of winter.
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looking at the radar and seeing it marching west still at a pace, after reaching Cardiff, think that will be totally wrong. Looking at Derek's chart it shows the snow did not even reach Llantrisant or Pontypridd so what happened? Unless this is going to magically do one, I cannot see how it cannot possibly get to Swansea and beyond.Bbc going with it reaching Cardiff as the most westerly point tho..not expecting much..
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That inexact that when snow is falling we are told it is dry and going to remain so. Even if the radar is showing precipitation. Also that inexact that even though most can see the developement in France and where it is going, and that heavy snow if probably going to be the result. The warning are left till the very last minute. Sorry but with millions of pounds worth of hardware this really should not happen;. I think too much reliance is given on computers nowadays. More should be given with the human touch. There are many on this site that are far more accurate than the met office machines. Inexact or not.Why not write and complain then. Thing is they forecast likelihoods but this is an inexact science. Easy to play the blame game though.
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What weather warnings. The met office is a disgrace. The forecast this morning was not for snow here in south Wales but ice. Even now with a great big lump moving out of France and now crossing Southern England, heading for us, there is no warning at all. If this is going to be all rain fine. But if it is very heavy snow. An utter disgrace..Weather warnings about to be upgraded according to BBC24. It also showed the heavy snow further north and east into Wednesday AM, missing out on Cardiff and the valleys.. Likely to change though
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But there is no agreement in models. And a week off is far too far away. That will change nearer the 25th for sure. I am not saying it will not get warmer. But that this is not set in stone. After all. The GFS has been saying we are going to get warmer since about the 12th.The BOM shows us cold through to the 25th Jan then the Atlantic make inroads and eventually overpowers the cold pool.
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pretty sure it will move into the Rhondda as snow. Temperature at the moment 2C. Dew points below zero. And both falling. so looks like when I wake it will be to falling snow. should be a fun day if nothing else.
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Must admit I am sitting watching this with interest. The radar too. As I am in the 'red' area would be real egg if this turned out to be a sleet or rain event. No reports though of this being snow in Wales. so will stay up a little late to see if anything happens as the precipitation hits the higher ground. I am though at a loss to see how the meto can give us a red warning, and a quite small area of wales, and the only part the UK to get that. There must be a reason but cannot work out what.
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A red warning has been issued for us in the upper Rhondda and heads of the valleys. What is missing with the met office red warning, one I have never seen before, is more detail of the areas that are going to be well stuffed.
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given the amount of snow that is probably going to fall up here in the upper Rhondda and many parts of Wales, and that the front looks like stalling over Wales before slipping away I think that is more than probable. There could be an upgrade snowwise as a low pressure is expected to form over ireland and this is likely to slip down over wales on it's way south east. Imagine how much snow that will leave. Could be the worse snow, with winds this will be whipped up into large drifts, than we have seen for a long time. I notice that the snow is not likely to get over to the east of the uk now and amounts there will be small. Unless for them there is an upgrade. Will be an interesting day tomorrow.whats the bets on METO upgrade to warning to change to RED? Me thinks around 11/12pm today might be an upgrade.
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Just watched Carol Kirkwood give today's forecaste. She showed us the light rain in Wales!!!! Have tweeted her. It has snowed most the night here in the upper Rhondda, is still snowing and looks very Christmas card. Only a light covering so no distruption but wish the BBC would get their forecast right. Tomorrow looking like a classic from the old day of the 60's to 80's when blizzards would hit the west because of warm fronts hitting a huge blocking cold. Enjoy guys. This has not happened for a very long time. The East and South East of England may get very little, if any tomorrow though..
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I see no balance here. In fact we have already had early blizzard alerts here in wales. It is often the case with these kind of synoptics the warm air is stalled. And could be stalled over wales and the Sw before sliding away. Time will tell but Wales is very much in the line of fire. Even if it snows hard then turns to rain for a short time before reverting to snow again. My thoughts are that I have seen these kind of chars all too often back in the 70's and 80's and in many case the cold wins hands down. Will have an even better idea this time tomorrow.Not so sure about that. It remains in the balance for Wales and SW England at the moment, still a lot to play for, with a few days left for the models to twist and turn, but it's Marginal. Albeit I foresee snow.
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I don't think I have ever known the models not only disagree so much. But also to flip flop from often run to run like they are doing. There has to be some variable out there that is confusing the programming. All I can think it is the stratosphere doing it. My view is anything can happen and take anything more than 48 hours as a pinch of salt.
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There really is no way of prediction amounts of snow or where it will fall. Many times have I seen the south east for instance forecast a good dumping. To wake up when I lived there to nothing on the ground and new reports of standed travellers in the south west. Even if it is know where snow will fall, forecasting amounts is a very hard thing to do. Just be happy that the UK or at least most parts of it will be cold enough for snow, then keep you fingers crossed it does.
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Snowing heavy here in the upper Rhondda, and settling fast. It looks the find powder type.
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Snowing very heavy in Cwmparc and settled on roads. Not nice to drive in.
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Hills around us now have a mist on them and snow settling up there too. Snow level falling as is the temperature. Upper Rhondda
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Merthyr is usually a few degrees colder than Merthyr, as it is here in the upper Rhondda, the reason for rain in Cardiff and snow in Merthyr. Very often Merthyr and the valleys will be snowbound while Cardiff is clear. Hope this answers your ? loadsa
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Dull but no precipitation here in the upper Rhondda. Temperature 1.4C. Hoping the snow holds off until at least late afternoon if only I have dinner arranged some 15 miles away later:-)
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Eventually the government will find it is essential to invest in winters more. The low solar activity is likely to last for several decades, forget global warming and all the religion behind that, we are now entering a cooling phase where winters are going to be bitter for many years to come. In fact it is my belief that this might turn out to be quite a tame one compared to future ones, in a few years.
There is no doubt that the global warming hype and statements like that made not many years ago, like, our kids may never see snow again, has contributed to this lack of investment in salt and bad weather equipment. The government had better heed scientist from elsewhere that have the same thoughts as me else we are heading for disaster. Bad winters are here to stay for the forseeable future. Weather, and climate, is all about cycles, learn from this, and invest..Oh and stop trying to force a green tax on us. personally I think they are trying to make up for a huge loss in revenue due to so many quitting smoking, but a GW tax, clutching at straws not real science..:-)
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Going to be interesting times as can see the airports opening again in the name of profits. Till one comes down. Like the bit about the plane did not crash even though all four engines cut out. Who would like to try it. Be a real andrelin buster that one. Any takers. As for me - there is no way I will go up there at the moment. Might have to keep my eye on the skies though in case one is coming down in the wrong place.
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I see they are going to put profits before life. When a disaster happens - they should be put out of business and sued the I have a problem off - as well as charged with manslaughter....
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does anyone have any good news of the current situ...is this volcano dying down?
Looking at the tremor chart it is set to get worse. The danger is also the sister volcano blowing - and that is bigger....
South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 4th April 2013 onwards
in Regional
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