andy_leics22
-
Posts
4,237 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
2
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by andy_leics22
-
-
I'll be very surprised if it doesn't turn to snow in Leicester, when that blob to thr East of you arrives in a few mins!
-
1 minute ago, WelfordRd said:
Feel your pain!
It hasn't turned in 'Inckleh?! You're only about 25 miles North West of me Surprised at that. I'm also surprised that Leicester hasn't got snow but we have. The cold air is supposed to be moving down from the North East, yet we're 30 miles or so South of Leicester.
-
Apologies for the rubbish video quality. My phone's camera isn't the best It's a shame this only started at the back edge of that band we have a dusting now but it'll be over on about 10 mins. Still, good to see and it bodes well for anyone West of here!
-
6
-
-
1 minute ago, matty40s said:
Heavy sleet now in Daventry area
...Northants.
It'll turn in a minute. It was rain here for ages and then it turned to snow when the heavier burst got here.
It's gonna blow up in this thread soon when that band reaches the Birmingham and West Mids area the extra elevation around there will help, as well.
-
3
-
-
This is crazy. Despite having 4 hours of rain before this turned to snow, it's already settling on cars and the shed roof!
-
3
-
-
Now then, this could get interesting for people West of Northampton, Leicester and Nottingham! Birmingham areas... If the band keeps up its current intensity, I would expect you to get a covering from this 2-5cm, definitely. Coventry as well, you guys should get something from this band. Shez, where are ya?!
-
1
-
-
Erm, not sure how, but... We have snow falling here won't amount to anything, though. Ground is soaked from 4 hours of rain.
-
4 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:
Boo! Lol
Sorry Just being a realist! Haha. Bit annoyed at how bad the timing of this has been. If the and had been 3-4 hours behind, all of this rain we have had in Northampton, would have mostly been snow By the time the colder air is here, the band will have cleared away.
Oh well, that's the reality of the Weather. Never predictable and never going to please everybody!
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:
Hinckley should be able to le everyone know in Birmingham if that big blob is going to bring some snow. Should be here in 20 mins. The radar is saying its Snow/rain so who knows what it will be
It'll be rain, with perhaps a bit of sleet mixed in.
-
2
-
-
6 minutes ago, matty40s said:
I'm really sorry for Northamptonshire, but I took an executive decision to bring down my old Dynastars and sticks from Blackpool today, which pretty much guarantees grass skiing for the coming week.
Thanks for that! No snow for me for this cold spell, then
-
7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
That band of precipitation is approaching then. Conditions look borderline for snow but colder air will be coming in on the back of it and evaporative cooling may occur.
I reckon you could see a covering from this! Colder 850's already in the Stoke area now. Bodes well for the next few hours.
-
2
-
-
Cold, hard rain here This PPN has arrived 4 hours too early. Go away!! *Gets hairdryer out in an attempt to blow it back East*
-
3
-
-
Not too optimistic about my chances of snow from this band tonight. It seems to only turn cold enough here by 11pm onwards. The band of PPN will probably have passed us by then Shame the colder air couldn't arrive 3 hours earlier
-
1 hour ago, sheikhy said:
Thats more like it!!for my area anyway lol!!
1-2cm? That's not good enough
-
37 minutes ago, Storme said:
I am up the road from you and have this horrible suspicion we will have almost nothing this time.
Loughborough is in a decent position (In my opinion). Let's see how much snow you have by Wednesday Certainly in a better position than me right now. Wanna swap for the next 7 days?
Instead of 'Wife swap' maybe we should start a 'snow swap' on this thread? swap locations for a week!
-
2
-
-
8 minutes ago, shunthebartlett92 said:
I guess so, but I guess we’ve perhaps had more days of lying snow this winter so far in the West mids , the end of December favoured us here more, but that is the exception rather than the rule really. Overall, an easterly or northeasterly will always shed its load over the places you mentioned before they reach these parts.
Oh yeah, totally. Sorry, I should have been a bit clearer when I said that Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire and Leicestershire had a better chance of snow, I meant during an Easterly, not in general The West Mids have done a lot better so far, this Winter.
Just seen this on the GFS. It's in F.I, but... Battleground dumping, anyone?
-
19 minutes ago, syed2878 said:
Somehow I doubt these words will come back to bite him I think he is spot-on I think in fact those who have really hyped up this cold snap will have egg on the faces
It's all relative though dude. If you live in Notts, Derbyshire, or Leicestershire, you have a better chance of seeing some snow, than say, Warwickshire, Birmingham, Worcester, Wolverhampton etc...
The fact is, some parts of Nottinghamshire could see 10cm+ by the time this is all said and done, and Birmingham may have 2cm. I'd certainly be hyping it up if I lived in a favoured spot from this
-
4
-
-
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
GFS rolling out quite clearly shows just how snow showers will pack in from the North Sea, ignoring their exact positioning and strength as these are difficult to model and likely to change. For large parts of the country, including parts of the Midlands, this is looking anything but dry. Very cold upper air temperatures over warmer than average sea surface temperatures under low heights is a recipe for snow showers.
I've lost count of the amount of times the GFS has started to show more and more PPN coming in from an Easterly, the closer we get to the event. It usuallt shows very light PPN at about 3-4 days away and as we get within t36, it increasingly shows more and more. It's just GFS doing GFS things
-
1 hour ago, Gustywind said:
You can only go by what the models are suggesting though, anything else has no evidence to back it up, of course the models could change & throw up a surprise or two, and personally I think that’s quite possible, but equally you can’t ignore the fact that aside from Sat night, there’s little showing currently.
As for experience, I’ve lived through plenty of easterlies & plenty have been cold but dry, I remember the Feb 86 one in particular & how irritating it was day after day, hearing about snow showers in the East, while in the Midlands we stayed frosty but very dry!
Unfortunately, Worcestershire is not in a good location for an Easterly The best scenario is if a channel low can come along and throw up a band of PPN with it. Snow showers won't usually amount to that much, that far West. That isn't to say that you can't get lucky from a streamer, though.
The Midlands is a wide area. It can stretch from Nottinghamshire all the way down to Worcestershire. Some parts of the Midlands will do well from this. Those as far East in the Midlands as possible will have the best chance.
-
1
-
-
7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
People really need to stop writing this off just because the models show little or nothing.
I’m doubtful for my area because I know from experience that most precipitation from the east/north east gets killed off by the Peak District, but I also know from experience that models massively underestimate showers in these setups. It was exactly the same in 2013 and 2018 and people were surprised when snow showers spread right across the country.
Models aren’t everything. Experience is invaluable!
I can guarantee that there will be more PPN and showers around from Monday-Wednesday than the models currently suggest. The radar will reflect that, no question.
-
3
-
-
17 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Really hoping the GEM is right. It's about the only model really picking up streamers well at the moment and has them consistently hitting Stoke. Gives 7cm here.
Also, John Hammond (BBC) reckoned Peak District into Stoke will get a lot more than the models show due to how they underdo showers.
I'm hoping it's bloody wrong!! We're in the corridor of nothingness here
I said it earlier but I'll say it again, because I think it's important for people in Leicestershire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Stoke (Yes, I included Stoke ) and Lincolnshire to know... The models are absolutely useless at picking up on showers from an Easterly. I would not be surprised if the areas mentioned, ended up with 5-15cm, Possibly even 20cm+ in places that are under a constant streamer. Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire are my favoured locations for a set up like this. Wasn't it 2009 when those areas were buried under 25cm+ of snow from an Easterly? Or maybe it was 2010. All I can remember is that Leicester had around 7-10cm of snow while 40 miles North, were buried with about a foot of the stuff So frustrating at the time.
So, in summary, do not write this off yet. There's no way it will be as dry as the models are suggesting currently, for Sunday-Wednesday.
-
1
-
-
25 minutes ago, Vmistry said:
Throwback to the 2018 BFTE when Leicestershire was in this triangle of no warnings
The 'Leicester snow shield' at full power there!
-
1
-
-
30 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
GFS is always the most progressive with any breakdown and does give a decent spell of snow before turning to rain. Still time for that to change. The Met Office outlook regarding that is very disappointing though. Sounds absolute crud.
Agreed. GFS absolutely LOVES bringing in raging zonality as soon as it can. I would trust the ECM or UKMO for a medium term outlook over the GFS. Having said that, the GFS did pick this Easterly up at around t180! So it isn't bad at picking up trends.
-
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Leicester is in a bad place as it stands!!!we need a more east north east shape to the wind!!a bit like the ecm this morning!!
If I had a choice of being in Northampton or Leicester for this cold spell, I would choose Leicester. Leics, Notts and Derbyshire are in good locations for showers and streamers. The models always under estimate PPN from showers and streamers. Seen it happen so many times in the past, from Easterlies.
-
2
-
Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward
in Regional
Posted
Stopped here now, but it was nice to see! Absolutely bugger all behind it on the radar, though Dry as a bone.