SteveB
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Posts posted by SteveB
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4.8c and 120mm please
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I hear people saying that nothing can come down from the North while there are heights to the South. Why can't they, why can't the heights just be push out of the way?
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Down to -7.3c now. Will it drop further?
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Ice day here. High of -0.4c, now -1.0c
Not bad considering I'm on the coast and we have no snow on the ground.
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Maybe... just maybe, this is the year where instead of everything that can go wrong will go wrong, for getting cold to our shores.
Everything that can go right, will go right for getting cold to our shores and keeping it here!
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Plain old rain here
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4 minutes ago, sean506 said:
From Ian Ferguson
From twitter hour or so ago
I saw that earlier. In with a shout I guess.
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59 minutes ago, Smartie said:
So annoying to see all these showers passing to the south west of my location, good for those seeing snow though.
Do you think we will see anything?
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Local forecast showing the showers coming off the Bristol channel as rain maybe a light dusting on higher ground for the weekend
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Well, already apps and local forecasts are way out with predicted temps.
Both TV & apps had me down for minimum 1c, currently -1.8c.
If they can't get it right now, how are they going to be anywhere near correct 2,3,4,5,6,7 days out.
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35 minutes ago, minus10 said:
Apologies if this has been posted already...currently out working but just grabbed look at gfes 6z 850s..
id say tht is a pretty good run if you want cold...of interest is the fairly substantial cluster supporting the op below the mean..
....however finely balanced though..
Hopefully cold block strong enough to resist warm attacks from the south...
As a few have alluded to. Since the dawn of model watching, we have never had cold in situ and the classic battleground situation with fronts coming in of the Atlantic. In the late 70's and early 80's I was older enough to remember driving to see my grandparents who also lived in Weston- super-mare, and in the short 10min journey, it rained then started to turn sleety.
When we left my granparents, 30mins later it was snowing heavily.
I suspect we are seeing something similar in the models for next week. This will a good test of whether we can still get those frontal events bumping into the block, or it simple pushes on through.
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40 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:
Thing is global warming doesn't seem to affect the USA when the polar vortex and 850s of -28 are bathing 50% of the country.
But, they don't have to contend with being on the eastern side of the Atlantic, and the gulf stream which dictates the kind of weather we have.
In the past we used to buck the trend and get cold spells even though our weather is predominantly Atlantic based. Now with global warming, its just another warm based obstacle we have to overcome, and I think it's the final nail in the coffin for semi regular proper cold spells.
We will get that epic cold spell, law of averages say we will, but the gaps between them will grow ever bigger.
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I don't know why it comes as a surprise when a cold spell gets watered down as it gets nearer to 0z. ECM will move to GFS and GFS will move to ECM and we will have a cold spell but not the epic freeze the models were showing in FI and we all want.
That's living in the UK and global warming for you.
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I think I'll change mine from 7.2c to 4.1c and 77mm please.
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34 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Yep, that's my point. this slow build is setting the foundations for mid December. It's entirely possible we end up in a severe freeze up. These are the best charts for POTENTIAL as we go into December for approximately a decade.
It can go wrong though mate. It's not like we haven't seen all this before when viewing charts.
But, and it's a big but there's always that chance we may hit the jackpot.
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Thunder and lightning passing to the North West of here
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4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
But should we ignore the op? Which is run at a higher resolution then ensembles and therefore logically should be better at picking up spoiler shortwaves that scupper things...
We've been here before many times when viewing charts in the Winter. You should never ignore any chart that is showing a mild solution, as it's the most likely outcome!
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The radar seems to be stuck @ 11.55am!
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7.2c & 110mm please.
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24 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:
Shaping up to be a typical NH winter, repeated cold plunges in the US, blocking high over Eastern Europe, south westerlies or Bartlett’s in the UK and the occasional Athens snowfall special
That sums it up perfectly. To think it would be anything different than that is wishful thinking.
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2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:
GEM goes a different route..
Hard to gauge where the second half of Nov goes
Likely to be more of the same. Record warmth is the form horse. Another above average month and I can't see December being anything different.
You can't escape the obvious!
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It rained!
That's it.
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20 minutes ago, Sceptical said:
That's pretty much Gavsweather take. December into January he's going for a mild, wet and windy theme.
That's a safe bet. You can't get away from the fact that it's the standard type of weather the UK gets in Winter, ergo the most likely outcome.
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8 hours ago, Bradley in Kent said:
I'm going for a milder than average winter.
Seems to be right 9 times out of 10...
I'm going for record breaking mild Winter.
December 6c+
January 6c +
February 6c+
March will be colder than the previous 3 months
March 3-4c range.
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Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yep that's a dead cert to happen as it shows no snow along the coast of the Bristol channel.