William Grimsley
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Posts posted by William Grimsley
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1 minute ago, Nick L said:
Anyone genuinely expected thunderstorms anywhere in southern England tonight will likely be disappointed. There is plenty of instability and potential energy in the atmosphere so a very isolated storm or two can't be entirely discounted, but for the overwhelming majority it's going to simply be a revoltingly sticky night.
When did I say they would be widespread. Think I'm going to stick to the UKWW forum, I can get through a day without getting slaughtered.
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3 minutes ago, Tom dewey likes thunder said:
When look at metoffice rain fall radar I was little shower in Bridgewater that could turn in something big
No, there's nothing there...
Anyway, AJ, why the reaction? This heat is obviously taking a toll on people's temper. -
2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:
a couple of light showers in the english channel is hardly 'kicking off' at this stage....lol....................not sure what you mean about the bolded bit of your posts, I presume you mean, most if not all professional forecasters are going by the met office forecasts which I pretty much paraphrased in the original post?
I'm on about a weather forecaster at the Met Office. Oh really? Well, if you take a look at the weather forecast for here, it says thunderstorms.
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6 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:
very unlikely though it has to be said...........possibly some lightning for cornwall,
west/north devoneast devon, but most of the overnight activity will be over the irish sea heading into NW england and southern scotland....as for tomorrow, as per all the main forecasts, Wales, north midlands northwards, unlikely elsewhere.....occasionally the weather can throw a curve ball, but it's a thin and very weedy straw to clutch sadlyMaybe, but the sky here is loaded with energy and it's already kicking off south of here anyway, so it'll be an interesting evening, more proffesional weather forecasters think different.
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2 minutes ago, Lauren said:
So basically nothing for the South, yes?
If you're looking for rain no, if you're looking for thunderstorms, possibly.
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Hi everyone,
Well, certainly won't be getting much rain tonight that's for sure, lightning a lot I hope, but we shall have to see. Sky has been fairly unstable with various patches of Altocumulus and Altocumulus Castellanus cloud through today, good luck folks.
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Just now, ajpoolshark said:
can I have some please? I need it
Of course, PM me.
I think we'll need it down here, I have my doubts about tomorrow, does anyone have any cows I can borrow to let off some methane to get some more energy in the air? -
21 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:
it get's worse, you're not on the edge of the 'slight risk'....you're 100 miles south of the slight risk area...lol...............Bristol, Bath & Swindon are right on said edge
Whoops, my post has been corrected, I've been drinking too much lightning juice...
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My guess would be that the slight will be moved slightly south eastwards and a moderate risk will be issued for the NW part of the current slight risk area.#
41 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:Can Knocker confirm?
Think Knocker is already moistened up.
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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:
Sorry, got out of the shower and I'd forgotten to put the blinds down
What a lovely sight, anyway... I'm not really sure what that means but I presume it means lots of electrical energy is about to go kaboom and blow a massive hole in the middle of Dartmoor?
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@weather09, did you see the link I posted? What do you think to that?
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Guys, guys. Just been on the UKWW forum and a member has been mentioning of a potential burst of elevated thunderstorms moving north out of the Bay of Biscay tomorrow evening, I'm thinking this will effect mostly Devon and Cornwall but potentially Dorset and Somerset as well, something to watch, but apparently "Camborne is moistening" and CB's are coming out of Spain which as Ben has pointed out, wasn't forecasted. A very unpredictable 24-48 hours to come, but also a potentially exciting period too. Good luck, everyone.
Oh, and just incase... https://video.nest.com/live/OIJL3I
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10 minutes ago, weather09 said:
12z Euro4 has focus of storms over N England and Scotland - first round over Scotland around 00z Weds, where shortwave trough and height falls destabilises environment - second round 03-06z from N Wales, transferring to northern parts of England during the morning hours, and then into Scotland toward midday, early afternoon. Obviously, not to be taken literally, and models do often have difficulty resolving where storms will break out with these types of setups.
Think Supacell's made a wise choice though. Nice trip up north should see him bag some supercells...
Ya forgotten this little feature over Devon!
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9 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
All the best matey!! Gonna be a long night Tuesday that's for sure. An imminent all nighter I reckon.
I'd think most of the activity will be east of you guys, prepare to potentially chase.
I'm slightly worried if this turns into an all nighter, I've not witnessed an all nighter before and won't be able to if it doesn't occur here.
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4 minutes ago, richep said:
bbc putting storms no where near us tomorrow night mate, just going to have to except we're not at risk this time around. Devon doesn't appear to be at risk at all
There will be especially on Exmoor northwards, that's what I think anyway, very unlikely anywhere else though, except hopefully Newton Poppleford...
First signs of thunderstorms leaving Spain heading northwards...
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Oh dear, I'm right on the edge of the low risk, looks like we'll see lots of Altocumulus Castellanus clouds overnight giving one or two thundery downpours before the main action starts through Devon, Wales and NW England overnight tomorrow.
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4 hours ago, reef said:
The humidity is certainly high at the moment. We're at 25.3C with a dewpoint of 19.1C. Its a bit uncomfortable for me but at least we're forecast some thunderstorms later so it'll be worth it.
Erm, not sure where you're getting thunderstorms for later on from?
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3 minutes ago, Karl. said:
We were talking about the Gfs 12z op, not the ens mean.
No need to apologise.
Suppose not, but I try to make everyone feel happy.
As I said, a stunning run, let's just hope it's not "storm porn" and see if it comes to fruition!-
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@weather09, I hope that 2nd chart is after it's developed otherwise we're stuffed.
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2 minutes ago, Nouska said:
It depends on what you are looking at but Knocker is not wrong when you look at the mean and individual ensemble members. The op is good but it is only one run.
144
216
A snapshot at 144 hours and 216 hours.
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=3&ech=216
Oh, ensembles now! Now it makes sense, apologies knocker!
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@ajpoolshark, don't loose heart buddy, I'm sure we can both feel sympathy if it all goes up in flames!
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1 minute ago, knocker said:
I don't have a problem admitting I'm wrong when I am wrong. Every day out to T198 has the jet running over the UK and then it splits..In any case I merely asked Karl whether he was thinking of any particular day for his original comment and he has since posted two charts. And if a simple polite question is going to cause such a silly fuss you can stick the thread.
Not causing a silly fuss, I am simply stating the facts that have been presented to you on this thread.
Anyway, back on topic...-
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24 minutes ago, knocker said:
No not never mind. What were you inferring?
Ouch, think you need to admit you were wrong on this occasion. GFS shows the jet stream being well to the north of the UK for most of the run in between the UK and Iceland.
Anyway, whatever your post shows is not really what I'd call a jetstream, it's barely got any strength!
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7 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Yet another prediction from myself too, I would love to see a full scale MCS but whether this will be the case I'm not sure. Deep Layer Shear doesn't look anything amazing but is still decent, CAPE values I believe are quite high, tho I don't have access to ML Cape charts. Also SRH looks well over 300m^2s^2, so I believe any MCS or storm that may form could possibly have supercellular characteristics which large hail being a risk too. If an MCS does form, I believe again over Exeter/Cornwall, through Bristol Channel, East Wales, but will decay into thundery rain as it moves north as I don't believe that the MCS can be sustained. I may be wrong as I am very amateur!
That sounds a very good prediction to me not just because you included Exeter in there but actually makes sense. To be honest, I think the models are developing everything too far north, there's plenty of energy available as far south as Brittany northwards so we'll just have to see. Oh, and yes, I will be on the lookout for my Altocumulus Castellanus cloud tomorrow and Tuesday.
I'm thinking this could be very similar to the last MCS that hit this area on the 24th of June 2005.
Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Good evening, guys! I am back! Interesting bit of convective weather coming up! Looks like the potential of elevated thunderstorms on Tuesday Night for SW areas but haven't looked in detail and certainly not getting hopes up at this range.