Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

William Grimsley

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,673

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by William Grimsley

    Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    55 minutes ago, bigguscumulus said:

    Fudge, another Kent clipper on the way :pardon::bomb:

     

    ukstormrisk.png

    ukcapeli.png

    ukprec.png

    Haha, I doubt it this time. It's a shame that the GFS doesn't want to break a lot out over this area but further north, again not sure how thundery this will be, but things will most likely change to hopefully be more favourable for all parts instead of the Irish Sea...

    39 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    If it ends up like that, i'll drive to @William Grimsley's house and gatecrash his birthday!  timeout.gif 

    Feel free, wouldn't mind meeting you! :p

    21 minutes ago, bigguscumulus said:

    @William Grimsley, you're house has has been designated as basecamp this coming week....oh and happy Birthday. :drunk-emoji:

    Thanks, it's a great place for thunderstorm watching! :D

    5 minutes ago, NUT said:

    If anything the potental seems to have increased. Going to be a interesting say 48 hours Tuesday/Wednesday but better to look near the time

    Yeah, it's looking good, I'm not getting my hopes up, though looks like if we do get anything, it will be quite severe! :D

    • Like 1

    Chat room open

    in News & Announcements

    Posted

    Hi Paul,

    Thanks for reopening the thread to us, was just wondering what the team's current thoughts were on the chat room? When is it likely to be open again? Is it only going to be open during weather events? If so, would these events need to be on a very severe scale?

    Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by William Grimsley

    8 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    I came tantalisingly close to having thunderstorms on my birthday (22nd June)- I could see the line of cumulonimbus clouds just to the south and east, but they weren't close enough for thunder to be audible.  The UKMO and ECMWF do show a classic south-west thunderstorms setup for around 20 July, but we need the GFS on board as well to be able to get much confidence in it coming off.

     

    2 hours ago, Supacell said:

    GFS and NMM both showing some tasty CAPE values for next Tues/Weds. BBC longer range forecast published last night also mentioning thundery rain moving through mid week. It is a distance off but we may be onto something here :)

    Come on, we can do this! :D

    Just seen the GFS, it's in agreement! :D

    Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by William Grimsley

    4 hours ago, weather09 said:

    Yes, nice outlook for Tues/Weds on ECM/UKM where we see a negatively-tilted upper trough digging south to the west of Iberia, with an amplified stout upper ridge building over southern/central continent. At the surface, low pressure is modeled to approach from S/SW drawing up an increasingly warm, moist and potentially unstable air mass on the eastern flank.  GFS different with the trough not getting as far south, and upper pattern generally not as amplified as euro models. More inspiring that it's the ECM/UKM showing the favourable synoptics and not the GFS in isolation, as is usually the case.  

    Bit far out, though, so wouldn't get excited just yet.

    To be honest, we had some great thunderstorms last month so I'm not praying for them this time, but it would be nice especially on Wednesday for my 18th! Ok, I'll shut up now. :p

    Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by William Grimsley

    Day 1 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 11 Jul 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 12 Jul 2016

    ISSUED 21:58 UTC Sun 10 Jul 2016

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    A messy situation once again on Monday with a mixture of dynamic and convective precipitation, as various old occlusions / troughs pivot eastwards in the flow. There is scope late morning / early afternoon that some heavy showers may develop across E / SE Scotland and NE England, before clearing eastwards out across the North Sea during the afternoon - a low chance of thunder with this.

    Farther south, late initiation (late afternoon into the evening) seems possible as a couple of convergence zones develop; one from SE Wales - Midlands - East Anglia, and another just inland from the south coast curving NE towards SE London / Thames Estuary, provide the focus for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. 20-30kts DLS should allow some cells to become organised, with the potential for some gusty winds and perhaps some small hail.

    http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-07-11

×
×
  • Create New...