William Grimsley
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Posts posted by William Grimsley
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30 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
It's 5:30, we have 2 more hours+ of dirnual heating warm moist air...
Yes, but it's too late now, really can't see anything setting off now.
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Well, looks like these isolated thunderstorms never occured. Pffft.
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@Supacell, luckily we had some good thunderstorms last month so I won't be too down if we don't get anything, if we had this weather for a month I'd be happy.
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I really hope there's a slight eastward shift. I think everyone from the southern tip of Devon all the way up to Cumbria would love an MCS, hey?!
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Hi Dave,
Would say you're not in the best place, but as we all know Essex is one of the thunderstorm hotspots in Southern England so you have a chance, to be honest, most activity currently seems to be reserved for Cornwall and Devon northwards.
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@Nick F, thanks for that brilliant forecast. If I read it correctly, is my area classed as being the "breeding ground" for these thunderstorms or would I still be too far south?
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Yes, models and particularly in detail precipitation charts aren't always the best bits of information to focus on at this range. What is happening is the charts are now starting to get confused and the runs are all over the place now, so the best thing is to just wait and see what occurs on the day. What did we do before charts? We just had to wait and see. Oh, well it may be the worst thunderstorm period for you, but certainly not down here.
BBC still think so, at least they're still going with it.
"Warm and humid on Wednesday with a chance of early thunderstorms, but becoming fresher by Thursday with showers."
Gives me hope...
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Just now, Summer Sun said:
It looks a good deal fresher for your area on Wednesday you could really do with some storms on Tuesday whilst you still have the heat
Potentially, but if the low is being forecast further west, then it may be warmer, to me that doesn't look fresh, still temperatures in the mid-20's...
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Now I'm getting worried, maybe we won't see anything. But, I'm not throwing the toys out of the pram just yet, I think we still have a very good chance down here, as I've always said models are pointless at this range.
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We'll just have to wait and see!
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1 minute ago, MattTarrant said:
Shall hopefully be exciting, the change in heat from North Wales to here was a shock! 24 here today. GFS Cape gets be on my seat but it changes rapidly so not getting hopes up.
Hello Matt, was wondering when you might be back. I agree lots of time for it to change, but thunderstorms look very likely now.
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2 hours ago, weather09 said:
Those are quite realistic values when you consider just how much warmth and moisture there is likely to be at low-levels. Moisture-rich air mass surging north and east from Tuesday evening, and will take a while for c30C heat having built up during the day to weaken.
Latest GFS/ECM outputs continue to break out thunderstorms and MCS(s) somewhere roughly over SW/W onward toward Midlands, transferring N and E during Weds morning as 500mb heights erode and forcing aloft arrives with approach of upper trough. Reasonable increase in mid-level winds generates decent deep layer shear for low-end severe convective episode - frequent CG lightning, possibly large hail and strong convective downdraft winds.
In other words, a morning very much like June 28 2012. That last part isn't meaning to be merely a ramp- the conditions during period in question look rather similar to that day, and the regions that look likely to be affected, and expected track of storms, also look similar.
Will be interesting to witness this MCS you're talking about, but not really sure if I should get excited about it, just yet.
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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
Vicious storms possible Tuesday night and into Wednesday on the week ahead forecast with Alex
Exact locations ect hard to pin down at this range
Nice shot for your location, I would predict that thunderstorms will be most intense in southern areas before becoming thundery rain or just heavy rain as they move northward.
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42 minutes ago, weather09 said:
Tues night and into early Weds sees 500mb heights fall from the west with approach of upper trough, with low-level moisture also ramping up from the SW as sfc low moves north and east during Weds. This forcing aloft breaks out mass of thunderstorms from the SW/W, per GFS/ECM modeling, with likelihood of MCS given adequate shear profile. Storms would be rooted above the boundary layer, transferring north and east through early part of Weds. Further risk of surface based storms during Weds if very moist and unstable air mass sticks around long enough before cold front pushes east.
An MCS?! Come on! Or, am I too far south?!
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5 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:
I forgot that the likes of Harry and myself know absolutely nothing about storm forecasting, we both bow to your wisdom
I'm not saying that, but it always seems as if I never get anything right when it turns out I do. Most of us on here are novices in this kind of thing and we've just got to wait and see what happens. Currently, things aren't looking too optimistic here, what do you think AJ?
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8 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:
Calm down William.....in this instance, Harry is right in what he says
I'm chill bro! Well, like always I never seem to be right on this forum. This time you're wrong too.
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8 minutes ago, Harry said:
Why on earth would you put it down to inaccuracy? The Azores High is a notorious bit of a kit at suppressing thunderstorm activity - furthermore, if there's no trigger, all that juice will not materialise. Can I not cast your minds back to El Brummo when the SE baked in 33C and obscene humidity (with as much convective juice, if not more, than those areas which saw widespread severe storms) but skies here remained clear all day. Or cast your minds back to July last year where the SE quarter erupted with widespread thunderstorms, while N France and Benexlus saw nothing.
In any event, planning your life around a plume breakdown 4 days in advance is madness....those charts will change considerably between now and then...as happens every single year
Ok, let me get this straight. Firstly, I'm NOT planning my life around this event! Where did I say that? Nowhere! Yes, I do remember those events! The reason I was surprised is simply because forecasted conditions look good for Tuesday and Wednesday, as W09 did mention a few days ago. Quite offended.
Also, not sure if you noticed, but on Tuesday and Wednesday the UK is under a low not an azores high. Jeez.
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Just now, markyo said:
Yep agree down by your neck of the woods,enjoy it and the breakdown,should fingers crossed be good!! Further north by me i'd say 2days max then back down to average. And we won't get the light show i suspect you may get get.
Ahh, sorry even though I talk as IMBY, I didn't realise you were too. Anyway, back on topic, sorry...
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1 minute ago, markyo said:
Blink and you will miss it,very short lived
I wouldn't say that, starting from today we have 5 days of heat here.
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BBC Weather graphics still on board with widespread thunderstorms on Tuesday Night and Wednesday, though only showing light rain showers for my location, will be just putting this down to innacuracy for now.
What's even more strange is the lack of preciptation on both the NMM and GFS for this area even though ML CAPE is at it's highest, again putting this down to innacuracy.
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18 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
Certainly wasn't terrible! The majority saw some amazing storms with lightning frequencies higher than probably the past decade. On the contrary, whilst some people saw the same thing in 2014, I saw very little activity up here that year. Doesn't mean it was terrible!!
Sorry, I was being very IMBY, please note that whenever I talk about weather that's terrible I'm on about IMBY not the country as a whole.
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11 minutes ago, bigguscumulus said:
Wait what? Something happened in 2015?
No, nothing bad, there was just a very low amount of thunder and lightning that year here.
9 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:Sorry
No worries.
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18 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:
Fingers crossed for you William
Lets just hope that this turns into an event that loads of us, from all around the country can enjoy... Like Early July last yearDon't remind me of 2015 please! It was terrible!
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27 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:
I've just seen the Cape and LI chart for my area on Tuesday!!
Whilst not a fan of the heat and humidity, I'll gladly suffer to watch this lot go bang!!
Lets just hope for yet more upgrades as time goes on
That's surface based so no use to me, let's just hope we can get some imports!
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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
@Karl., that's a stunning GFS run, it's rare to see the GFS be so positve right until the end!