William Grimsley

Yeah, we've got a bit of that here and there, things are starting to liven up over the other side of the English Channel.

Hazy sunshine and very light rain here.

Yes, I would say you're correct there. When you mean "offshore" I presume you mean out over the English Channel as that would mean a better chance for coastal areas. Anyway, we have some hazy sunshine here with a little bit of Altocumulus cloud floating about but nothing much at this point in time.

We have ignition in the Bay of Biscay as well as some CB's firing up in NE France.

Most of this is mid level not surface based convection. I've noticed a lot of anaprop in the English Channel which is a good sign.

Ah, I remember Gordon from 2014, I hope he got some help!

I agree. Just checked the latest BBC Weather forecast. Lots of heavy and showery rain pushing up through Devon this afternoon, however this turns more widespread and possibly thundery as it moves northward and eastward. Monday still looks interesting especially in the morning with a possible downpour with hail/thunder thrown in during the afternoon.

I've tried to have a look at your YouTube videos, but they're all private?

Another great post, Supacell! As I pointed out, no place has a much higher chance than anywhere else so it will just be radar watching.

Good luck with that!

My word, I wasn't being percent specific I was just pointing out that the general risk was quite widespread across southern England. Yes, ok just because you both live in SE England you are pointing out that you are going to get hit by several supercells, but that's fine because it won't happen.

Fine. Not getting in an argument over the odd rumble here and there... Also, according to http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk, we have the same thunderstorm risk as you. So, there you have it. Also, no thunder mentioned on the most recent BBC Weather forecast so it's all completely presumptive.

No, go back on the latest run and it shows a large cluster of heavy, thundery showers over Devon. But, fair enough, just wait and see.

I would say you were being slightly incorrect there, check the Euro 4, lots of heavy downpours for later as well as the Met Office and BBC both showing the same setup... Hehe! That's the NMM model, I remember last time it predicted severe thunderstorms over this area and nothing materialised. Having said that, this isn't the best start to the day...

There are already quite a few heavy showers approaching the Isles of Scilly suggesting that instability is a lot further west than originally thought.

Yes, and so does the BBC! Again, I'm not sure how much lightning there will be associated with these but it's possible.

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 03 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 04 Apr 2016 ISSUED 14:30 UTC Sat 02 Apr 2016 ISSUED BY: Dan Falling heights as an upper trough pivots NEwards across Britain and Ireland, coupled with a moist low-level airmass and rather slack surface flow, may allow some deep convection to occur across central Ireland on Sunday daytime, the focus gradually shifting a little westwards with time. Hence scattered showers or pulses of showery rain are likely at times, which may produce some sporadic lightning given 200-300 Jkg-1 CAPE. Moisture plume will also begin to advect north on Sunday afternoon/evening across southern and eastern Britain from the nearby Continent. At the same time, flow will continue to back as upper trough migrates NEwards, steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing instability. It seems likely that at least some elevated convection will occur but in an environment with rather meagre CAPE (50-100 Jkg-1) and hence even if this does develop, it is still rather questionable as to how much lightning activity there will be, and the overall risk is deemed to low to issue a SLGT (which requires >30%). Main area of interest is from IoW-Humber eastwards, generally the risk increases as you head further E.

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Just incase anything happens here, I have setup a Nest live stream facing south! https://video.nest.com/live/Atmiip

I'm not sure if you mean here, but the only negative feeling I have about this is that I'm too far south?

That risk area is starting to move ever further west, I'm only just west of the edge of that risk area. Lets hope some upgrades start to happen and push the risk further westward, otherwise I think Monday is my best bet at the moment.

Good luck again, south easterners! If only you could just shift some 300 miles west! Thank you!

Monday looks really good for us! Fingers crossed!

I had the same thoughts as Greenday, looks like there could be some thundery outbreaks of rain over the weekend, it would be an ideal set up if we were in mid-Summer. Again, nothing to write home as of yet but things may change.

I love it! It's more modern and contemporary than the default one!